stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Sept 5, 2024 23:12:35 GMT
5 electoral college votes
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Post by aargauer on Oct 25, 2024 19:13:15 GMT
I think this is going to be the surprise of the night. Perhaps not a gain, but i suspect it'll be close.
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Post by sanders on Oct 25, 2024 19:45:25 GMT
I think this is going to be the surprise of the night. Perhaps not a gain, but i suspect it'll be close. Along with Nevada, New Mexico is another state which the Republican nominee hasn’t carried at the presidential level since 2004. I think some may be getting carried away. To win this, Republicans possibly need to tie Hispanics or win them. They essentially tied the Hispanic vote in 2004 and thus was a big part of Karl Rove’s strategy that year. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 26, 2024 6:05:17 GMT
I think this is going to be the surprise of the night. Perhaps not a gain, but i suspect it'll be close. Along with Nevada, New Mexico is another state which the Republican nominee hasn’t carried at the presidential level since 2004. I think some may be getting carried away. To win this, Republicans possibly need to tie Hispanics or win them. They essentially tied the Hispanic vote in 2004 and thus was a big part of Karl Rove’s strategy that year. The exit polls were pretty notoriously awful in 2004. Bush irl got around 40% of the Hispanic vote. They just drastically underestimated the % of the WWC vote. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 26, 2024 6:23:30 GMT
Along with Nevada, New Mexico is another state which the Republican nominee hasn’t carried at the presidential level since 2004. I think some may be getting carried away. To win this, Republicans possibly need to tie Hispanics or win them. They essentially tied the Hispanic vote in 2004 and thus was a big part of Karl Rove’s strategy that year. The exit polls were pretty notoriously awful in 2004. Bush irl got around 40% of the Hispanic vote. They just drastically underestimated the % of the WWC vote. Re: New Mexico and Nevada, it'd be poetic if Democrats lost one or both, having gerrymandered the Congressional Districts in 2022 - pretty egregiously in the Land of Enchantment and pretty cleverly in the Silver State. I was looking at the governor elections again, and Nevada does stand out on the map, whereas New Mexico wasn't that close (Democrats won by 5%). I wonder if having a Domenici on the ballot will help the Republicans - still Pete Domenici has been dead for a while and last won here in 2002. I believe 2000 was the last time New Mexico voted to the right of the country. If Trump is winning NM, he's probably winning the popular vote. By the way, New Mexico voted to the right of Colorado in 2020 for the first time since 1968, so it's likely if Republicans do win NM, we're getting an ugly map where CO is an island of blue in a sea of red, much like New Mexico was in 2000. |
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