New Hampshire

[stb12]

4 electoral college votes

[sanders]

The main race to watch is the governor's election. Unified Democratic control looks more iffy based on this poll. I think the governor's race may be a repeat of the 2016 Senate race, when Kelly Ayotte (R) narrowly lost due to presidential turnout. A 4% lead for Harris is probably enough for the Democrats to win the gubernatorial race (split-ticket voting tends to be lower in Presidential years). The gubernatorial election fills the open seat with Chris Sununu (R) retiring. 

[stb12]

Oct 25, 2024 5:35:52 GMT sanders said:

The main race to watch is the governor's election. Unified Democratic control looks more iffy based on this poll. I think the governor's race may be a repeat of the 2016 Senate race, when Kelly Ayotte (R) narrowly lost due to presidential turnout. A 4% lead for Harris is probably enough for the Democrats to win the gubernatorial race (split-ticket voting tends to be lower in Presidential years). The gubernatorial election fills the open seat with Chris Sununu (R) retiring. 

Emerson poll on the governor’s race

[stb12]

[finsobruce]

Oct 30, 2024 21:36:09 GMT stb12 said:

I like the sentence in one of Ayotte's election addresses which warns voters "We are one election away from becoming Massachusetts".

[stb12]

Oct 30, 2024 21:57:13 GMT finsobruce said:

Oct 30, 2024 21:36:09 GMT stb12 said:

I like the sentence in one of Ayotte's election addresses which warns voters "We are one election away from becoming Massachusetts".

Funny thing there is that Massachusetts have still had Republican governors quite frequently despite being so strongly Democrat at all other levels

[stb12]

The polling seems to have generally favoured Ayotte here, although tight enough where she could still be brought down by Trump on the ticket