Nevada

[stb12]

[iain]

In relation to what I posted upthread, it does seem that Ds in Nevada are going to be more likely to vote on election day than Rs this year. That would certainly be a change, but Ds simply not turning out would also be an oddity for the Trump era:

[stb12]

Still looking very tight here, lower gap in the Senate race as well than has been usual for non-partisan polls but imagine Rosen is still safe

[sanders]

Looking good for Harris in Nevada. The Silver State will be close. However, I think Democrats take this.

For reference, here are statewide figures. How many Rs voting for Kamala? And how many independents supporting her? These figures can't tell us either. 

[riccimarsh]

Nov 2, 2024 7:12:11 GMT sanders said:

Looking good for Harris in Nevada. The Silver State will be close. However, I think Democrats take this.

For reference, here are statewide figures. How many Rs voting for Kamala? And how many independents supporting her? These figures can't tell us either. 

Statewide advantage of 50k for the GOP seems pretty significant, no??

[sanders]

Nov 2, 2024 15:22:02 GMT riccimarsh said:

Nov 2, 2024 7:12:11 GMT sanders said:

Looking good for Harris in Nevada. The Silver State will be close. However, I think Democrats take this.

For reference, here are statewide figures. How many Rs voting for Kamala? And how many independents supporting her? These figures can't tell us either. 

Statewide advantage of 50k for the GOP seems pretty significant, no??

No. New voters are automatically registered independents. I expect Harris to win them. Enough to overcome the GOP lead you mention. We should know on Wednesday morning.

[johng]

Not sure what to think of this. Certainly not what message I'd recommend giving even if I thought we were up.

And this is from a women who won by 8k/ 0.8% in 2022,

[Forfarshire Conservative]

As stated in the main thread, Jon Ralston has predicted that the Dems will win Nevada 48.5% to 48.2%.


thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions

[johng]

Nov 4, 2024 20:11:54 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

As stated in the main thread, Jon Ralston has predicted that the Dems will win Nevada 48.5% to 48.2%.


thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions

Making a prediction with a .3% margin. Pretty bullish call and salute him for not hiding behind too close to call.

Though we know that really means too close to call.

[sanders]

You could argue Jacky Rosen carries Harris over the line. The Reid machine lives on after the Democratic Socialists of America briefly took over the state in 2021. Now deposed.

[stb12]

Yeah a prediction at that level really is basically saying it can go either way

[iain]

Confirmation that we shouldn’t expect massively decreased turnout from Dems and that turnout patterns (mail, early, election day) have changed (and typically Democrats strengthen throughout election day):

[aargauer]

10 am figures are out:

R: 20,905
O: 19,154
D: 16,799

www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/15289/638664002447431425

Anyone brave enough to contextuallise that?

My only thoughts are, that's not a lot of votes for state-wide turnout before work especially considering polls close at 7.

Regardless of who wins (likely R marginally I suspect)we aren't likely to be talking a big partisan shift at all.

[sanders]

Labour holding up well in Clark County. 

[iain]

Nov 5, 2024 19:47:10 GMT aargauer said:

10 am figures are out:

R: 20,905
O: 19,154
D: 16,799

www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/15289/638664002447431425

Anyone brave enough to contextuallise that?

My only thoughts are, that's not a lot of votes for state-wide turnout before work especially considering polls close at 7.

Regardless of who wins (likely R marginally I suspect)we aren't likely to be talking a big partisan shift at all.

So going into election day we are at R +40k, but missing part of the weekend mail ballots from Clark. Early numbers indicate election day may be a wash, so it comes down to the mail. What will the R advantage come down to - 20, 25, 30k? Tough to say, but I’d imagine the lower end of that range.

And how are all these new Indies breaking? Ds seem very confident that these are their people, and if they’re right then they’ll probably win. But, bluntly, we have no way of knowing if they’re right or not.

[johng]

Nov 5, 2024 19:56:07 GMT iain said:

Nov 5, 2024 19:47:10 GMT aargauer said:

My only thoughts are, that's not a lot of votes for state-wide turnout before work especially considering polls close at 7.

So going into election day we are at R +40k, but missing part of the weekend mail ballots from Clark. Early numbers indicate election day may be a wash, so it comes down to the mail. What will the R advantage come down to - 20, 25, 30k? Tough to say, but I’d imagine the lower end of that range.

And how are all these new Indies breaking? Ds seem very confident that these are their people, and if they’re right then they’ll probably win. But, bluntly, we have no way of knowing if they’re right or not.

Don't forget these numbers don't include mail ballots dropped off at drop boxes or mailed today (NV counts them as long as they are postmarked today and delivered within four days).

Nevada is an all mail voting state, but voters can opt out and can choose to go to vote in person anyway.

[riccimarsh]