Nevada

[stb12]

6 electoral college votes

[sanders]

Interesting development out of Nevada here. Republicans may win the gold medal in the Silver State.

[rcronald]

Ralston is sounding the alarm for Dems:

thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

[sanders]

Oct 22, 2024 5:27:21 GMT rcronald said:

Ralston is sounding the alarm for Dems:

thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

Nevada was the only governorship Republicans gained in 2022. It could be a rare bright spot for Trump even if he loses the election. There was also a destabilising time in the state party when the Democratic Socialists of America took it over, which may have alienated some more 'blue dog' democrat types in the state. 

[sanders]

Oct 22, 2024 5:27:21 GMT rcronald said:

Ralston is sounding the alarm for Dems:

thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

Ralston again raising the alarm here:

“The early voting blog is updated!

Out: Clark D firewall

In: Rural R firewall.

It's real: 16,500 votes because of massive landslides so far and higher than urban turnout percentage.

Dems need more mail, lots of indies, or big trouble in NV.”

[iain]

Right, let’s do this and compare early vote turnout in Nevada to 2020 and 2016. Neither is a great comparator, for obvious reasons, but we should remember that Nevada was already a state with very high early and mail voting pre-COVID, so 2016 is much more useful than it would be in other places.

So, here’s turnout after 6 days of early voting:

Republicans:
2016 - 24.8%
2020 - 30.8%
2024 - 33.7%

Democrats:
2016 - 25.6%
2020 - 35.9%
2024 - 29.5%

Basically it looks as if Democratic turnout is more or less fine (maybe a bit behind where they’d want to be given behaviour change over the pandemic?) but Republican turnout is exceptionally high.

The question is: can Republicans keep that up? Now personally, I think the answer is no. 83% of Republicans turned out in 2020, so frankly I don’t think there is a whole lot of room to grow. BUT, if I am right then I think this will show up in the second week of early voting. If Republicans retain anything like this turnout edge going into election day then it seems staggeringly unlikely that Democrats would be able to make that up.

Relatedly, Ralston wrote on his blog yesterday that 5% of early voting Ds were election day voters in 2022 compared with 16% of R. Removing these voters from yesterday’s figures:
Republican: 141,542
Democrat: 144,499

So election day cannibalisation accounts for the entirety of the Republican statewide lead. BUT Democrats had a 1.2% lead at the end of early voting in 2022 when they (very) narrowly held the Senate seat and lost the governorship. In other words, even taking account of this cannibalisation Trump would be narrowly favoured to win the state as things stand.

And, also in the Republicans’ favour: they are getting out more irregular voters than Democrats (taken from Ralston’s blog):
GOP 2 of 4 voters - 25.3% Turnout
DEM 2 of 4 voters - 20.9% Turnout

GOP 1 of 4 voters - 23.6% Turnout
DEM 1 of 4 voters - 18.6% Turnout

GOP 0 of 4 voters - 17.8% Turnout
DEM 0 of 4 voters - 13.9% Turnout

The long and the short of it then - as of today, Trump is narrowly favoured in Nevada. But only narrowly.

[sanders]

Nevada is narrowing for Republicans now. This is interesting reading for sure. Ralston's point stands out in particular.

[rcronald]

Oct 27, 2024 16:07:23 GMT sanders said:

Nevada is narrowing for Republicans now. This is interesting reading for sure. Ralston's point stands out in particular.

Dems losing ground during a weekend is a horrible sign for them, Dems traditionally (and still) do best on Saturdays and Sundays…

[sanders]

Oct 28, 2024 11:08:34 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 27, 2024 16:07:23 GMT sanders said:

Nevada is narrowing for Republicans now. This is interesting reading for sure. Ralston's point stands out in particular.

Dems losing ground during a weekend is a horrible sign for them, Dems traditionally (and still) do best on Saturdays and Sundays…

There's a limit to this stuff. Clark County is still pretty big. It's not over yet. Still, looking good for Trump now. 

[rcronald]

Yikes

[sanders]

Oct 28, 2024 18:33:46 GMT rcronald said:

Yikes

Trump carried Carson City both times. It’s not a Nevada bellwether county. Though overall Republicans are doing well. Harris can win actually without Nevada. She’d need the entire rust belt. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan all Democratic. It’s a stretch but pretty doable.

[rcronald]

Oct 28, 2024 18:40:15 GMT sanders said:

Oct 28, 2024 18:33:46 GMT rcronald said:

Yikes

Trump carried Carson City both times. It’s not a Nevada bellwether county. Though overall Republicans are doing well. Harris can win actually without Nevada. She’d need the entire rust belt. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan all Democratic. It’s a stretch but pretty doable.

He’s talking about Carson city in the context of gaining the gerrymandered legislature.

[sanders]

Oct 28, 2024 19:29:35 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 28, 2024 18:40:15 GMT sanders said:

Trump carried Carson City both times. It’s not a Nevada bellwether county. Though overall Republicans are doing well. Harris can win actually without Nevada. She’d need the entire rust belt. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan all Democratic. It’s a stretch but pretty doable.

He’s talking about Carson city in the context of gaining the gerrymandered legislature.

Democrats currently have a super majority. Republicans have poor geography in NV. They could certainly make gains, however. Majority control feels like a stretch.

[iain]

Oct 28, 2024 19:29:35 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 28, 2024 18:40:15 GMT sanders said:

Trump carried Carson City both times. It’s not a Nevada bellwether county. Though overall Republicans are doing well. Harris can win actually without Nevada. She’d need the entire rust belt. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan all Democratic. It’s a stretch but pretty doable.

He’s talking about Carson city in the context of gaining the gerrymandered legislature.

Ralston is an excellent analyst but also a terrible troll (especially on Twitter).

Trump is currently (narrowly) in the driving seat to win Nevada, but there is no real prospect at the moment of Rs gaining the legislature.

[sanders]

Pre-2016 voting patterns are returning, somewhat. Republicans used to win mail-in votes. In 2016, Georgia showed this well. Republicans won mail-in votes there. The Democrats won on-the-day election votes. It makes sense, doesn't it, really? Older voters typically voted by mail. They skew heavily Republican most elections. So you'd expect some reversion then. I don't dispute Trump's doing well. However, don't overplay that in Nevada. Democrats could still ultimately overtake him. It depends on Las Vegas turnout. Las Vegas, and the other cities. Henderson, North Las Vegas, Reno too.

[aargauer]

Oct 29, 2024 5:07:46 GMT sanders said:

Pre-2016 voting patterns are returning, somewhat. Republicans used to win mail-in votes. In 2016, Georgia showed this well. Republicans won mail-in votes there. The Democrats won on-the-day election votes. It makes sense, doesn't it, really? Older voters typically voted by mail. They skew heavily Republican most elections. So you'd expect some reversion then. I don't dispute Trump's doing well. However, don't overplay that in Nevada. Democrats could still ultimately overtake him. It depends on Las Vegas turnout. Las Vegas, and the other cities. Henderson, North Las Vegas, Reno too.

1) Henderson is clearly republican leaning in an even year. Biden only won the 3rd covering Henderson and South Las Vegas 49.2 to 49 in 2020.

2) Looking like the Republicans are favourite in Washoe (Reno) - they need to win there or get very close to win the state. It's only a point or so more democratic than the state.

I think the route is closing rapidly for the Dems here - if they don't have a good few days in early voting between now and Friday its just asking too much on the day. Realistically the gap will increase today and tommorow. Probably Thursday too. It might surprise people the margin by which Nevada goes. I suspect it won't be that close.

[sanders]

New voters are automatically independent here. It parts explains so many independents. Hence they'll likely be fairly Democratic. Also, no ID needed to vote.

[rcronald]

Oct 29, 2024 14:32:53 GMT sanders said:

New voters are automatically independent here. It parts explains so many independents. Hence they'll likely be fairly Democratic. Also, no ID needed to vote.

the last couple of elections suggest that registered Indis in NV are not even close to heavily D. This is not Colorado or the PNW.

[sanders]

Oct 29, 2024 16:08:01 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 29, 2024 14:32:53 GMT sanders said:

New voters are automatically independent here. It parts explains so many independents. Hence they'll likely be fairly Democratic. Also, no ID needed to vote.

the last couple of elections suggest that registered Indis in NV are not even close to heavily D. This is not Colorado or the PNW.

This is also worth pointing out. Younger electorate likely compared to 2022. 

[rcronald]

Oct 29, 2024 16:22:29 GMT sanders said:

Oct 29, 2024 16:08:01 GMT rcronald said:

the last couple of elections suggest that registered Indis in NV are not even close to heavily D. This is not Colorado or the PNW.

This is also worth pointing out. Younger electorate likely compared to 2022. 

Quoting Swann Marcus is a choice….