Minnesota

[stb12]

10 electoral college votes

[sanders]

Another 'black Nazi' Republican candidate running:



Democrats weren't losing Minnesota Senate anyway. Klobuchar is safe as houses here. She'll cruise to a fourth term. 

[sanders]

As tied state senate in Minnesota. Democrats previously held a narrow majority. They won by one seat before. So this is an understandable result. Trifecta broken here as in Michigan

[rcronald]

Nov 10, 2024 18:15:51 GMT sanders said:

As tied state senate in Minnesota. Democrats previously held a narrow majority. They won by one seat before. So this is an understandable result. Trifecta broken here as in Michigan

The Dems here (and to a lesser extent in MI) governed like they had a massive mandate. They were unsurprisingly punished.

[sanders]

Nov 11, 2024 13:14:02 GMT rcronald said:

Nov 10, 2024 18:15:51 GMT sanders said:

As tied state senate in Minnesota. Democrats previously held a narrow majority. They won by one seat before. So this is an understandable result. Trifecta broken here as in Michigan

The Dems here (and to a lesser extent in MI) governed like they had a massive mandate. They were unsurprisingly punished.

Punished? Tied state senate? From a one seat Democratic majority? Hardly a punishment for the party. Governor Walz is fairly popular here. 

[rcronald]

Nov 11, 2024 13:16:53 GMT sanders said:

Nov 11, 2024 13:14:02 GMT rcronald said:

The Dems here (and to a lesser extent in MI) governed like they had a massive mandate. They were unsurprisingly punished.

Punished? Tied state senate? From a one seat Democratic majority? Hardly a punishment for the party. Governor Walz is fairly popular here. 

The Dems are currently leading in 2 seats by less than 0.1%. The party is close to being wiped out from everywhere that isn’t the twin cities.

[sanders]

Nov 11, 2024 13:19:01 GMT rcronald said:

Nov 11, 2024 13:16:53 GMT sanders said:

Punished? Tied state senate? From a one seat Democratic majority? Hardly a punishment for the party. Governor Walz is fairly popular here. 

The Dems are currently leading in 2 seats by less than 0.1%. The party is close to being wiped out from everywhere that isn’t the twin cities.

Geography isn't that great for them. Hence, 4-4 House seats for some time. 

[timrollpickering]

Minnesota should have got more attention at the presidential level as it's often numerically a competitive state but one where the Democrats keep winning - at 13 times in a row this is their second longest current streak after the District of Columnbia. However the state was on the ticket four times including this year. Just how long before the state finally ends up in the Republican column?

[sanders]

Nov 11, 2024 13:46:28 GMT timrollpickering said:

Minnesota should have got more attention at the presidential level as it's often numerically a competitive state but one where the Democrats keep winning - at 13 times in a row this is their second longest current streak after the District of Columnbia. However the state was on the ticket four times including this year. Just how long before the state finally ends up in the Republican column?

It won’t. Ever. Until we have a Republican landslide. It’s voted to the right of the country only once since 1956 - Trump’s first election in 2016. The suburbs of Minneapolis and St Paul have drifted leftward. It also has one of the higher turnouts. Those two facts harm GOP chances.

[eastmidlandsright]

Nov 11, 2024 19:05:51 GMT sanders said:

Nov 11, 2024 13:46:28 GMT timrollpickering said:

Minnesota should have got more attention at the presidential level as it's often numerically a competitive state but one where the Democrats keep winning - at 13 times in a row this is their second longest current streak after the District of Columnbia. However the state was on the ticket four times including this year. Just how long before the state finally ends up in the Republican column?

It won’t. Ever. Until we have a Republican landslide. It’s voted to the right of the country only once since 1956 - Trump’s first election in 2016. The suburbs of Minneapolis and St Paul have drifted leftward. It also has one of the higher turnouts. Those two facts harm GOP chances.

It is interesting that in terms of state wide performance almost nothing has changed but that is a result of two trends cancelling one another out. The 2024 and 2004 results are very close overall 51-47 and 51-48 but the map is very different. Twenty years ago Bush crushed Kerry in the suburbs but back then the Democrats still won some rural counties and comfortably won the on the Iron Range. 

[sanders]

Nov 11, 2024 21:06:54 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

Nov 11, 2024 19:05:51 GMT sanders said:

It won’t. Ever. Until we have a Republican landslide. It’s voted to the right of the country only once since 1956 - Trump’s first election in 2016. The suburbs of Minneapolis and St Paul have drifted leftward. It also has one of the higher turnouts. Those two facts harm GOP chances.

It is interesting that in terms of state wide performance almost nothing has changed but that is a result of two trends cancelling one another out. The 2024 and 2004 results are very close overall 51-47 and 51-48 but the map is very different. Twenty years ago Bush crushed Kerry in the suburbs but back then the Democrats still won some rural counties and comfortably won the on the Iron Range. 

The Iron Range and rural Minnesota are very interesting. Trump was the first Republican to win Carlton County since 1928. Many descendants of Scandinavian immigrants in the state. Typically they are less right wing than German Americans who bolted right from the 1940s onwards. Some of the Republican wins in the state are just odd. 1990 governor election - Arne Carlson (now there’s a Scandinavian name) replaced the official nominee and won two terms as MN governor. 2002 saw the tragic death of Senator Paul Wellstone in a plane crash and Walter Mondale was put on the ballot. He lost to Norm Coleman. Mondale has technically lost all 50 states - 49 in 1984 and then Minnesota in 2002. The state is too educated, has too high turnouts and is generally too social democratic for the GOP to win. It’s last GOP governor Tim Pawlenty was moderate.

[eastmidlandsright]

Nov 11, 2024 21:27:40 GMT sanders said:

Nov 11, 2024 21:06:54 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

It is interesting that in terms of state wide performance almost nothing has changed but that is a result of two trends cancelling one another out. The 2024 and 2004 results are very close overall 51-47 and 51-48 but the map is very different. Twenty years ago Bush crushed Kerry in the suburbs but back then the Democrats still won some rural counties and comfortably won the on the Iron Range. 

Trump was the first Republican to win Carlton County since 1928.

No surprise at all there. Obama won it by 26 points in 2012, four years later Clinton by less than 2 points. 

[rcronald]

Nov 11, 2024 21:27:40 GMT sanders said:

Nov 11, 2024 21:06:54 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

It is interesting that in terms of state wide performance almost nothing has changed but that is a result of two trends cancelling one another out. The 2024 and 2004 results are very close overall 51-47 and 51-48 but the map is very different. Twenty years ago Bush crushed Kerry in the suburbs but back then the Democrats still won some rural counties and comfortably won the on the Iron Range. 

The Iron Range and rural Minnesota are very interesting. Trump was the first Republican to win Carlton County since 1928. Many descendants of Scandinavian immigrants in the state. Typically they are less right wing than German Americans who bolted right from the 1940s onwards. Some of the Republican wins in the state are just odd. 1990 governor election - Arne Carlson (now there’s a Scandinavian name) replaced the official nominee and won two terms as MN governor. 2002 saw the tragic death of Senator Paul Wellstone in a plane crash and Walter Mondale was put on the ballot. He lost to Norm Coleman. Mondale has technically lost all 50 states - 49 in 1984 and then Minnesota in 2002. The state is too educated, has too high turnouts and is generally too social democratic for the GOP to win. It’s last GOP governor Tim Pawlenty was moderate.

German Americans bolted to the right in the 1910s-1920s, not 40s.

[sanders]

Nov 12, 2024 12:30:14 GMT rcronald said:

Nov 11, 2024 21:27:40 GMT sanders said:

The Iron Range and rural Minnesota are very interesting. Trump was the first Republican to win Carlton County since 1928. Many descendants of Scandinavian immigrants in the state. Typically they are less right wing than German Americans who bolted right from the 1940s onwards. Some of the Republican wins in the state are just odd. 1990 governor election - Arne Carlson (now there’s a Scandinavian name) replaced the official nominee and won two terms as MN governor. 2002 saw the tragic death of Senator Paul Wellstone in a plane crash and Walter Mondale was put on the ballot. He lost to Norm Coleman. Mondale has technically lost all 50 states - 49 in 1984 and then Minnesota in 2002. The state is too educated, has too high turnouts and is generally too social democratic for the GOP to win. It’s last GOP governor Tim Pawlenty was moderate.

German Americans bolted to the right in the 1910s-1920s, not 40s.

My mistake. I thought it was WWII related. But yes 1910s and 20s makes sense. 

[The Bishop]

Nov 11, 2024 13:46:28 GMT timrollpickering said:

Minnesota should have got more attention at the presidential level as it's often numerically a competitive state but one where the Democrats keep winning - at 13 times in a row this is their second longest current streak after the District of Columnbia. However the state was on the ticket four times including this year. Just how long before the state finally ends up in the Republican column?

The next time that they actually win big?

[sanders]

Minnesota's state house comes down to this one seat, with Democrats narrowly leading pending a recount.