Maryland

[stb12]

10 electoral college votes

[sanders]

Joe Manchin (ex-Democrat) endorsing Larry Hogan (R). This shouldn't surprise anyone at all. They are very similar politicians ultimately. Both are in No Labels, IIRC. At worst, Maryland is Likely Democrat. No way Hogan outruns Trump enough. Harris probably wins MD by 30%. We haven't seen that sort of split-ticket voting since ... Joe Manchin in 2012. It's poetic then Manchin doing this.

Hogan's path is incredibly tricky. People might remember Weld in 1996. He ran for Senate as Massachusetts governor. He tried to defeat then two-term incumbent Democratic Senator, one John Forbes Kerry. It didn't work. Partly because some right-wing Republicans couldn't vote for Weld for Senator - I think there'll be some of that in Maryland, but perhaps not since Donald Trump is backing Larry Hogan. What you can say is that the apparent closeness of the race may force the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) to spend money in the Old Line State, which they could spend in Montana or Ohio.

[stb12]

Sept 6, 2024 5:19:10 GMT sanders said:

Joe Manchin (ex-Democrat) endorsing Larry Hogan (R). This shouldn't surprise anyone at all. They are very similar politicians ultimately. Both are in No Labels, IIRC. At worst, Maryland is Likely Democrat. No way Hogan outruns Trump enough. Harris probably wins MD by 30%. We haven't seen that sort of split-ticket voting since ... Joe Manchin in 2012. It's poetic then Manchin doing this.

Hogan's path is incredibly tricky. People might remember Weld in 1996. He ran for Senate as Massachusetts governor. He tried to defeat then two-term incumbent Democratic Senator, one John Forbes Kerry. It didn't work. Partly because some right-wing Republicans couldn't vote for Weld for Senator - I think there'll be some of that in Maryland, but perhaps not since Donald Trump is backing Larry Hogan. What you can say is that the apparent closeness of the race may force the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) to spend money in the Old Line State, which they could spend in Montana or Ohio.

It’s seen the pretty bizarre situation of Hogan disavowing an an endorsement from his party’s Presidential nominee, it’s clearly understandable why though

[sanders]

Sept 6, 2024 7:27:06 GMT stb12 said:

Sept 6, 2024 5:19:10 GMT sanders said:

Joe Manchin (ex-Democrat) endorsing Larry Hogan (R). This shouldn't surprise anyone at all. They are very similar politicians ultimately. Both are in No Labels, IIRC. At worst, Maryland is Likely Democrat. No way Hogan outruns Trump enough. Harris probably wins MD by 30%. We haven't seen that sort of split-ticket voting since ... Joe Manchin in 2012. It's poetic then Manchin doing this.

Hogan's path is incredibly tricky. People might remember Weld in 1996. He ran for Senate as Massachusetts governor. He tried to defeat then two-term incumbent Democratic Senator, one John Forbes Kerry. It didn't work. Partly because some right-wing Republicans couldn't vote for Weld for Senator - I think there'll be some of that in Maryland, but perhaps not since Donald Trump is backing Larry Hogan. What you can say is that the apparent closeness of the race may force the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) to spend money in the Old Line State, which they could spend in Montana or Ohio.

It’s seen the pretty bizarre situation of Hogan disavowing an an endorsement from his party’s Presidential nominee, it’s clearly understandable why though

Yes. Trump is totally toxic in Maryland and you can easily drawn a map (not even that heavily gerrymandered) where the House seats go Biden 8-0 Trump. 

[sanders]

Old Line State early vote totals. Unofficial but a swing to Democrats. However, they're not the official results.  

[stb12]

As expected Larry Hogan fell well short here after the initial positive polling, but he did outrun Trump considerably and put in a very respectable performance for a Republican in a Maryland federal race

[sanders]

2006: DEM 54% GOP 44%

2024: DEM 53% GOP 44%

Both elections with moderate Republican candidates. Decent showing, but no cigar ultimately. Republicans haven't won Maryland Senate since 1980, and they haven't won this seat since 1970