stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 5, 2024 23:06:01 GMT
1 electoral college vote
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 18, 2024 20:39:28 GMT
No idea on the reliability of the pollster, but Maine 2nd is in many ways the classic example of Trump country so i think it would be surprising if that flipped outside of major landslide territory
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Post by sanders on Sept 19, 2024 3:44:01 GMT
No idea on the reliability of the pollster, but Maine 2nd is in many ways the classic example of Trump country so i think it would be surprising if that flipped outside of major landslide territory A quick Google would suggest 538 ranks them 70th: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/. They get a 2.1/3 stars. Pretty mid pollster. Any poll of Maine's 2nd District should press don't knows because the state and its districts used ranked choice voting, so the winner will not get 47%. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 23, 2024 11:58:00 GMT
Republican campaign arm poll so make of it what you will
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Post by sanders on Oct 23, 2024 20:57:25 GMT
Republican campaign arm poll so make of it what you will It doesn’t seem to prompt for the Ranked Choice Voting so it should be binned at least at least for the House election. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 25, 2024 10:25:06 GMT
I am genuinely baffled that 6 people voted Kamala here.
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Oct 25, 2024 10:32:53 GMT
I am genuinely baffled that 6 people voted Kamala here. Why? |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 25, 2024 10:36:50 GMT
I am genuinely baffled that 6 people voted Kamala here. Why? Both campaigns, congressional candidates, and state parties think that Trump is pretty safe here. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 25, 2024 10:45:45 GMT
I am genuinely baffled that 6 people voted Kamala here. Why? Demographically it’s very much a Trump type district and he carried it twice before so it flipping seems unlikely unless there’s landslide territory But in fairness I don’t think there’s been much in the way of non-partisan polling to really analyse it |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 25, 2024 10:49:06 GMT
Demographically it’s very much a Trump type district and he carried it twice before so it flipping seems unlikely unless there’s landslide territory But in fairness I don’t think there’s been much in the way of non-partisan polling to really analyse it Jared Golden is basically running a campaign mostly composed of I’m the most pro-Trump democrat in Congress, I voted for Susan Collins in 2020, voted against the IRA, and pro wall. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 25, 2024 10:52:39 GMT
It'll be interesting to see the difference between House and President here. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Golden could be a formidable candidate for Senate here in 2026 if Susan Collins loses a primary to a more pro-Trump candidate, or retires after five terms in Congress. Golden has a pretty solid record but it's possible partisanship catches up with him. Saying that, his GOP predecessor Bruce Poliquin was the first incumbent defeated in Maine's 2nd Congressional District since 1916, so incumbency county for a lot (it is a vast, and fairly rural seat after all and perhaps somewhat more inward-looking and parochial than other seats).
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 25, 2024 10:55:55 GMT
Demographically it’s very much a Trump type district and he carried it twice before so it flipping seems unlikely unless there’s landslide territory But in fairness I don’t think there’s been much in the way of non-partisan polling to really analyse it Jared Golden is basically running a campaign mostly composed of I’m the most pro-Trump democrat in Congress, I voted for Susan Collins in 2020, voted against the IRA, and pro wall. He’s also been at pains to say that he doesn’t see a Trump victory as a threat to democracy and that he’s comfortable with it happening, which obviously goes heavily against the general Democrat message |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 25, 2024 10:57:58 GMT
It'll be interesting to see the difference between House and President here. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Golden could be a formidable candidate for Senate here in 2026 if Susan Collins loses a primary to a more pro-Trump candidate, or retires after five terms in Congress. Golden has a pretty solid record but it's possible partisanship catches up with him. Saying that, his GOP predecessor Bruce Poliquin was the first incumbent defeated in Maine's 2nd Congressional District since 1916, so incumbency county for a lot (it is a vast, and fairly rural seat after all and perhaps somewhat more inward-looking and parochial than other seats). I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP recruits him to run as a Republican if Collins retires (he’s a genuine moderate, and the Dems would probably want a progressive or governor Mills to run as the Dem candidates). I also heard some rumours about Henry Cuellar, his sister, the head of the Dem machine in the RGV Eddie Lucio, and NC congressman Donald Davis. (I personally don’t believe any of them outside of Lucio) |
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Post by stb12 on Oct 25, 2024 11:08:44 GMT
It’s very difficult to see the GOP keeping the Maine senate seat if Collins retires, although it’s not turned as overall liberal/left wing as other parts of New England with current polarisation the areas in the 1st District seem to have it pretty safe for the Democrats statewide
In particular it would probably be pretty much impossible if 2026 is a Trump presidency mid-term. So I imagine GOP leaders will do everything they can to make sure Collins runs again and to persuade Trump to stay out of any primary challenge talk
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Post by sanders on Oct 25, 2024 11:08:52 GMT
It'll be interesting to see the difference between House and President here. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Golden could be a formidable candidate for Senate here in 2026 if Susan Collins loses a primary to a more pro-Trump candidate, or retires after five terms in Congress. Golden has a pretty solid record but it's possible partisanship catches up with him. Saying that, his GOP predecessor Bruce Poliquin was the first incumbent defeated in Maine's 2nd Congressional District since 1916, so incumbency county for a lot (it is a vast, and fairly rural seat after all and perhaps somewhat more inward-looking and parochial than other seats). I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP recruits him to run as a Republican if Collins retires (he’s a genuine moderate, and the Dems would probably want a progressive or governor Mills to run as the Dem candidates). I also heard some rumours about Henry Cuellar, his sister, the head of the Dem machine in the RGV Eddie Lucio, and NC congressman Donald Davis. (I personally don’t believe any of them outside of Lucio) It'd be interesting to see how he'd do statewide in a primary and who else might run against him. However, I don't see why Collins retires unless she attracts a high-profile challenger with Trump's backing. Surely even Trump knows backing a MAGA challenger to Susan Collins is risky as hell, since the Republicans may throw away the Seante seat for a long time. It's not the same as Alaska where either Kelly Tshibaka (R) or Lisa Murkowski (R) would win the election. Regarding: Henry Cuellar, I've thought his defecting a possibility for a while. Biden one carried his seat by 7% and a state senator in McAllen did switch parties. There's a demonstrably evident long-term trend towards Republicans in the Rio Grande Valley, but that's a discussion for another thread. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 25, 2024 11:15:38 GMT
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP recruits him to run as a Republican if Collins retires (he’s a genuine moderate, and the Dems would probably want a progressive or governor Mills to run as the Dem candidates). I also heard some rumours about Henry Cuellar, his sister, the head of the Dem machine in the RGV Eddie Lucio, and NC congressman Donald Davis. (I personally don’t believe any of them outside of Lucio) It'd be interesting to see how he'd do statewide in a primary and who else might run against him. However, I don't see why Collins retires unless she attracts a high-profile challenger with Trump's backing. Surely even Trump knows backing a MAGA challenger to Susan Collins is risky as hell, since the Republicans may throw away the Seante seat for a long time. It's not the same as Alaska where either Kelly Tshibaka (R) or Lisa Murkowski (R) would win the election. Regarding: Henry Cuellar, I've thought his defecting a possibility for a while. Biden one carried his seat by 7% and a state senator in McAllen did switch parties. There's a demonstrably evident long-term trend towards Republicans in the Rio Grande Valley, but that's a discussion for another thread. Regarding Collins and Golden, Collins is unlikely to face a strong challenge in a primary, she is old, and Golden was a staffer of her for a couple of years and stood beside her even when it was politically inconvenient. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 25, 2024 11:16:24 GMT
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP recruits him to run as a Republican if Collins retires (he’s a genuine moderate, and the Dems would probably want a progressive or governor Mills to run as the Dem candidates). I also heard some rumours about Henry Cuellar, his sister, the head of the Dem machine in the RGV Eddie Lucio, and NC congressman Donald Davis. (I personally don’t believe any of them outside of Lucio) It'd be interesting to see how he'd do statewide in a primary and who else might run against him. However, I don't see why Collins retires unless she attracts a high-profile challenger with Trump's backing. Surely even Trump knows backing a MAGA challenger to Susan Collins is risky as hell, since the Republicans may throw away the Seante seat for a long time. It's not the same as Alaska where either Kelly Tshibaka (R) or Lisa Murkowski (R) would win the election. Regarding: Henry Cuellar, I've thought his defecting a possibility for a while. Biden one carried his seat by 7% and a state senator in McAllen did switch parties. There's a demonstrably evident long-term trend towards Republicans in the Rio Grande Valley, but that's a discussion for another thread. Yeah as I alluded to above if he’s the President I imagine there will be a lot of lobbying for him to leave Collins alone, he’s never quite gone after her as much as Murkowski and others anyway The only other impeachment voting Senator that will be left and is also up for re-election in 2026 is Bill Cassidy, but with Louisiana being a safe red state he might be unforgiving there |
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Post by sanders on Oct 25, 2024 16:22:42 GMT
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Post by Foggy on Oct 25, 2024 18:14:54 GMT
As a resident of (another) Bangor I'm well aware that upstate Maine is not like the rest of New England.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 25, 2024 18:16:35 GMT
As a resident of (another) Bangor I'm well aware that upstate Maine is not like the rest of New England. Though the Bangor you live in is, for all the problems in certain bits, the Bangor, of which the others are pale imitations. |
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