Louisiana

[stb12]

8 electoral college votes

[sanders]

Oct 25, 2024 11:16:24 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 25, 2024 11:08:52 GMT sanders said:

It'd be interesting to see how he'd do statewide in a primary and who else might run against him. However, I don't see why Collins retires unless she attracts a high-profile challenger with Trump's backing. Surely even Trump knows backing a MAGA challenger to Susan Collins is risky as hell, since the Republicans may throw away the Seante seat for a long time. It's not the same as Alaska where either Kelly Tshibaka (R) or Lisa Murkowski (R) would win the election. 

Regarding: Henry Cuellar, I've thought his defecting a possibility for a while. Biden one carried his seat by 7% and a state senator in McAllen did switch parties. There's a demonstrably evident long-term trend towards Republicans in the Rio Grande Valley, but that's a discussion for another thread. 

Yeah as I alluded to above if he’s the President I imagine there will be a lot of lobbying for him to leave Collins alone, he’s never quite gone after her as much as Murkowski and others anyway

The only other impeachment voting Senator that will be left and is also up for re-election in 2026 is Bill Cassidy, but with Louisiana being a safe red state he might be unforgiving there

Louisiana is switching to more conventional primaries and ditching its blanket primary after 50 years. I think Cassidy goes down. Former Democratic governor Jon Bel Edwards could run there. I don't think he'd win, but it'd be an interesting contest for sure if Cassidy gets primaried out of his seat for a more MAGA type Republican. 

[rcronald]

Oct 25, 2024 11:21:33 GMT sanders said:

Oct 25, 2024 11:16:24 GMT stb12 said:

Yeah as I alluded to above if he’s the President I imagine there will be a lot of lobbying for him to leave Collins alone, he’s never quite gone after her as much as Murkowski and others anyway

The only other impeachment voting Senator that will be left and is also up for re-election in 2026 is Bill Cassidy, but with Louisiana being a safe red state he might be unforgiving there

Louisiana is switching to more conventional primaries and ditching its blanket primary after 50 years. I think Cassidy goes down. Former Democratic governor Jon Bel Edwards could run there. I don't think he'd win, but it'd be an interesting contest for sure if Cassidy gets primaried out of his seat for a more MAGA type Republican. 

They are switching to a normal primary system???

Btw, I don’t think that Cassidy is going to be replaced by a hard MAGA type like Clay Higgins, he’s more likely to be replaced by someone popular within the state party and the broader electorate like Julia Letlow (Scalise and especially Johnson are unlikely to run for senate, and she’s the only other politician that is popular with both the state faction of Landry and the federal faction of Scalise) it would also give Garrett Graves his congressional district back.

[stb12]

Oct 25, 2024 11:27:34 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 25, 2024 11:21:33 GMT sanders said:

Louisiana is switching to more conventional primaries and ditching its blanket primary after 50 years. I think Cassidy goes down. Former Democratic governor Jon Bel Edwards could run there. I don't think he'd win, but it'd be an interesting contest for sure if Cassidy gets primaried out of his seat for a more MAGA type Republican. 

They are switching to a normal primary system???

Btw, I don’t think that Cassidy is going to be replaced by a hard MAGA type like Clay Higgins, he’s more likely to be replaced by someone popular within the state party and the broader electorate like Julia Letlow (Scalise and especially Johnson are unlikely to run for senate, and she’s the only other politician that is popular with both the state faction of Landry and the federal faction of Scalise) it would also give Garrett Graves his congressional district back.

Just shifted to activate the Louisiana threads guys

[stb12]

The shift to a normal primary system could be seen as an anti-Cassidy move as a jungle primary would make it easier to survive with potential crossover support