Iowa

[stb12]

6 electoral college votes

[markgoodair]

On September 11, the Iowa Supreme Court refused to put the Libertarian candidates for U.S. House back on the ballot. The party nominated three candidates for U.S. House by party meeting. The county and state conventions that nominated them were held on the same day, but the law says they can’t be on the same day.

[sanders]

Iowans wake up to grifter Trump. Bodes well for Dems' IA-03 chances. I think they'll take that back. The Hawkeye State can be quite elastic. Compare 1984 to 1988. The farm crisis shifted Iowa. Gore won it in 2000. That feels nostalgic now. It's a small state and farmers may fear more trade wars. Likely Trump, even if it isn't safe.

Walz gives Harris a Midwest boost. These states are interesting - Bush lost them; his son won IA in '04. '22 was a landslide, although Grassley's worst performance. Rs held every House and Senate seat from Iowa for the first time since 1946. While a GOP state (they swept all offices in '22) it could shift, like in 2018.

[johng]

Sept 15, 2024 11:12:49 GMT sanders said:

Iowans wake up to grifter Trump. Bodes well for Dems' IA-03 chances. I think they'll take that back. The Hawkeye State can be quite elastic. Compare 1984 to 1988. The farm crisis shifted Iowa. Gore won it in 2000. That feels nostalgic now. It's a small state and farmers may fear more trade wars. Likely Trump, even if it isn't safe.
Walz gives Harris a Midwest boost. These states are interesting - Bush lost them; his son won IA in '04. '22 was a landslide, although Grassley's worst performance. Rs held every House and Senate seat from Iowa for the first time since 1946. While a GOP state (they swept all offices in '22) it could shift, like in 2018.

I think the poll is very interesting when thinking about rural Wisconsin which is similar to rural Iowa. If Harris can get Trump's margin down this much in Iowa, it means Wisconsin is a likely win for her. Whilst a touch less relevant than WI, it also has relevance to rural whites PA and MI and bodes well for her there too.

Though Selzer's Sept polls in 2020 and 2022 both showed the state as much closer than they ended up. Her final polls showed massive swings to Trump/ GOP and were pretty good both times.

[sanders]

Sept 15, 2024 12:13:28 GMT johng said:

Sept 15, 2024 11:12:49 GMT sanders said:

Iowans wake up to grifter Trump. Bodes well for Dems' IA-03 chances. I think they'll take that back. The Hawkeye State can be quite elastic. Compare 1984 to 1988. The farm crisis shifted Iowa. Gore won it in 2000. That feels nostalgic now. It's a small state and farmers may fear more trade wars. Likely Trump, even if it isn't safe.
Walz gives Harris a Midwest boost. These states are interesting - Bush lost them; his son won IA in '04. '22 was a landslide, although Grassley's worst performance. Rs held every House and Senate seat from Iowa for the first time since 1946. While a GOP state (they swept all offices in '22) it could shift, like in 2018.

I think the poll is very interesting when thinking about rural Wisconsin which is similar to rural Iowa. If Harris can get Trump's margin down this much in Iowa, it means Wisconsin is a likely win for her. Whilst a touch less relevant than WI, it also has relevance to rural whites PA and MI and bodes well for her there too.

Though Selzer's Sept polls in 2020 and 2022 both showed the state as much closer than they ended up. Her final polls showed massive swings to Trump/ GOP and were pretty good both times. 

For the Democrats, Iowa's 3rd and Wisconsin's 3rd could both be in play. Republicans spaffed a lot of money on the latter in particular in 2022 for Derrick Van Orden. He is very much an outlier - Democrats generally carry that seat in gubernatorial races, and in 2023, Janet Protasewicz won it in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. 

[sanders]

Democrats on the up in Iowa. The Hawkeye State has several marginals. Democrats could also win West Montana. I think that's the consolation prize. Tester loses but Democrats win that. Indiana's 1st has been Democrat forever. Almost a century at the least. It's trending rightward (declining Black population). Gary is losing population pretty quickly. I think many are moving southward. There are similar trends in Chicago. 

[johng]

Selzer's final poll is out tomorrow at 7pm ET.

Iowa's gone for the Dems obviously - though there are some tight congressional races with IA's 1st and 3rd districts considered toss-ups.

The real thing to look for though is it will give a very good indication of how Harris and Trump are doing in the rust belt.

If Trump is ahead by 6 or less, good for Harris. If Trump is ahead 7 or 8, neutral. If Trump is ahead 9 or more, good for Trump

Her record is very strong:
2012: D+5
Final result: D+6
2016: R+7
Final result: R+9
2020: R+7
Final result: R+8
The biggest miss was in 2016 and that was just by two points in a year where Trump dramatically outperformed his polling average.

[stb12]

Funny to think that only in 2018 the Democrats won three of the four house seats in Iowa and weren’t that far off the fourth, been quite a quick decline

The last Selzer poll showed a closer race than you’d have expected but clearly neither side considers it in play

[sanders]

2022 was the first time Republicans held all the House and Senate seats since 1946. Democrats could win a House seat back this time. But yeah, this is a red state now.

[stb12]

Removing their first in the nation status for primary season might not have helped win some people back either

[sanders]

Nov 1, 2024 19:41:12 GMT stb12 said:

Removing their first in the nation status for primary season might not have helped win some people back either

The traditional first primary and caucus states were always fairly unrepresentative of the country. Iowa and New Hampshire are very white.

[stb12]

Nov 1, 2024 19:43:19 GMT sanders said:

Nov 1, 2024 19:41:12 GMT stb12 said:

Removing their first in the nation status for primary season might not have helped win some people back either

The traditional first primary and caucus states were always fairly unrepresentative of the country. Iowa and New Hampshire are very white.

True but those states clearly feel some long term pride with that

[sanders]

Nov 1, 2024 19:49:28 GMT stb12 said:

Nov 1, 2024 19:43:19 GMT sanders said:

The traditional first primary and caucus states were always fairly unrepresentative of the country. Iowa and New Hampshire are very white.

True but those states clearly feel some long term pride with that

Caucuses are just very unrepresentative. It’s very nostalgic though. As is talking about the Hawkeye State as a battleground!

[johng]

Copy of my other post. The numbers are simply shocking.

Whilst Selzer is the gold standard, I still just can't believe Harris could take the state with the state's direction of travel, demographics and next to no campaign.

Nov 2, 2024 23:22:15 GMT johng said:

I have to say I am a little stunned by these numbers. Nobody imagined the Selzer poll would have Harris ahead. Nobody.

Either Queen Ann has dramatically lost her crown or the US polling industry is well and truly cooked. Emerson just today released an Iowa Trump +10 poll.

For those who don't know. Selzer was off by 1 point is 2012, 2 points in 2016 and 1 point in 2020 - well against the polling tide in the Trump elections. She also had a very decent 2018 and 2022. It is seen as the gold standard for Iowa and a very good indicator of the rust belt.

The poll would have to be ten points wrong for Trump to have a decent chance in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Though a poll is just that. A poll.

[sanders]

Nov 2, 2024 23:23:23 GMT johng said:

Copy of my other post. The numbers are simply shocking.

Whilst Selzer is the gold standard, I still just can't believe Harris could take the state with the state's direction of travel, demographics and next to no campaign.

Nov 2, 2024 23:22:15 GMT johng said:

I have to say I am a little stunned by these numbers. Nobody imagined the Selzer poll would have Harris ahead. Nobody.

Either Queen Ann has dramatically lost her crown or the US polling industry is well and truly cooked. Emerson just today released an Iowa Trump +10 poll.

For those who don't know. Selzer was off by 1 point is 2012, 2 points in 2016 and 1 point in 2020 - well against the polling tide in the Trump elections. She also had a very decent 2018 and 2022. It is seen as the gold standard for Iowa and a very good indicator of the rust belt.

The poll would have to be ten points wrong for Trump to have a decent chance in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Though a poll is just that. A poll.

Tim Walz has decent Midwest appeal. He won a fairly Trump-friendly seat. Trump’s policies on tariffs harming him. A trade war might hurt farmers. Not good for the soybean industry. Democrats won 3/4 House seats (2018). Iowa can be volatile on occasion. 1988 is a good example actually. Farm crisis gave Dukakis a win. Still, it may be an outlier.

[iain]

Astonishing, and as johng says, I’ll believe it when I see it.

FWIW, this is Selzer’s record in GEs:

[dizz]

Nov 2, 2024 23:23:23 GMT johng said:

Copy of my other post. The numbers are simply shocking.

Whilst Selzer is the gold standard, I still just can't believe Harris could take the state with the state's direction of travel, demographics and next to no campaign.

Nov 2, 2024 23:22:15 GMT johng said:

I have to say I am a little stunned by these numbers. Nobody imagined the Selzer poll would have Harris ahead. Nobody.

Either Queen Ann has dramatically lost her crown or the US polling industry is well and truly cooked. Emerson just today released an Iowa Trump +10 poll.

For those who don't know. Selzer was off by 1 point is 2012, 2 points in 2016 and 1 point in 2020 - well against the polling tide in the Trump elections. She also had a very decent 2018 and 2022. It is seen as the gold standard for Iowa and a very good indicator of the rust belt.

The poll would have to be ten points wrong for Trump to have a decent chance in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Though a poll is just that. A poll.

The poll is of course most likely 'wrong' or more correctly an outlier but how refreshing to see a pollster with the confidence to deliver up its carefully produced results.

[sanders]

Nov 3, 2024 8:54:58 GMT dizz said:

Nov 2, 2024 23:23:23 GMT johng said:

Copy of my other post. The numbers are simply shocking.

Whilst Selzer is the gold standard, I still just can't believe Harris could take the state with the state's direction of travel, demographics and next to no campaign.

The poll is of course most likely 'wrong' or more correctly an outlier but how refreshing to see a pollster with the confidence to deliver up its carefully produced results.

Yes. Too many have states as toss-ups. I respect Selzer for their honesty in their polls. To be fair, they do have the history to afford one miss, which this poll most probably is.

[batman]

Mind you, Iowa can behave a little eccentrically at times. Lost easily by Biden, and yet won easily by Michael Dukakis in his heavily beaten attempt to enter the White House.

[The Bishop]

Both those results are partly explainable by demographics, though.