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Iowa
Sept 5, 2024 23:02:42 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Sept 5, 2024 23:02:42 GMT
6 electoral college votes
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Iowa
Sept 12, 2024 8:53:38 GMT
Post by markgoodair on Sept 12, 2024 8:53:38 GMT
On September 11, the Iowa Supreme Court refused to put the Libertarian candidates for U.S. House back on the ballot. The party nominated three candidates for U.S. House by party meeting. The county and state conventions that nominated them were held on the same day, but the law says they can’t be on the same day.
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Iowa
Sept 15, 2024 11:12:49 GMT
Post by sanders on Sept 15, 2024 11:12:49 GMT
Iowans wake up to grifter Trump. Bodes well for Dems' IA-03 chances. I think they'll take that back. The Hawkeye State can be quite elastic. Compare 1984 to 1988. The farm crisis shifted Iowa. Gore won it in 2000. That feels nostalgic now. It's a small state and farmers may fear more trade wars. Likely Trump, even if it isn't safe.Walz gives Harris a Midwest boost. These states are interesting - Bush lost them; his son won IA in '04. '22 was a landslide, although Grassley's worst performance. Rs held every House and Senate seat from Iowa for the first time since 1946. While a GOP state (they swept all offices in '22) it could shift, like in 2018.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,773
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Iowa
Sept 15, 2024 12:13:28 GMT
Post by johng on Sept 15, 2024 12:13:28 GMT
Iowans wake up to grifter Trump. Bodes well for Dems' IA-03 chances. I think they'll take that back. The Hawkeye State can be quite elastic. Compare 1984 to 1988. The farm crisis shifted Iowa. Gore won it in 2000. That feels nostalgic now. It's a small state and farmers may fear more trade wars. Likely Trump, even if it isn't safe. Walz gives Harris a Midwest boost. These states are interesting - Bush lost them; his son won IA in '04. '22 was a landslide, although Grassley's worst performance. Rs held every House and Senate seat from Iowa for the first time since 1946. While a GOP state (they swept all offices in '22) it could shift, like in 2018.
I think the poll is very interesting when thinking about rural Wisconsin which is similar to rural Iowa. If Harris can get Trump's margin down this much in Iowa, it means Wisconsin is a likely win for her. Whilst a touch less relevant than WI, it also has relevance to rural whites PA and MI and bodes well for her there too.
Though Selzer's Sept polls in 2020 and 2022 both showed the state as much closer than they ended up. Her final polls showed massive swings to Trump/ GOP and were pretty good both times.
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Iowa
Sept 15, 2024 12:15:32 GMT
Post by sanders on Sept 15, 2024 12:15:32 GMT
Iowans wake up to grifter Trump. Bodes well for Dems' IA-03 chances. I think they'll take that back. The Hawkeye State can be quite elastic. Compare 1984 to 1988. The farm crisis shifted Iowa. Gore won it in 2000. That feels nostalgic now. It's a small state and farmers may fear more trade wars. Likely Trump, even if it isn't safe. Walz gives Harris a Midwest boost. These states are interesting - Bush lost them; his son won IA in '04. '22 was a landslide, although Grassley's worst performance. Rs held every House and Senate seat from Iowa for the first time since 1946. While a GOP state (they swept all offices in '22) it could shift, like in 2018.
I think the poll is very interesting when thinking about rural Wisconsin which is similar to rural Iowa. If Harris can get Trump's margin down this much in Iowa, it means Wisconsin is a likely win for her. Whilst a touch less relevant than WI, it also has relevance to rural whites PA and MI and bodes well for her there too.
Though Selzer's Sept polls in 2020 and 2022 both showed the state as much closer than they ended up. Her final polls showed massive swings to Trump/ GOP and were pretty good both times. For the Democrats, Iowa's 3rd and Wisconsin's 3rd could both be in play. Republicans spaffed a lot of money on the latter in particular in 2022 for Derrick Van Orden. He is very much an outlier - Democrats generally carry that seat in gubernatorial races, and in 2023, Janet Protasewicz won it in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race.
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