Florida

[rcronald]

Nov 11, 2024 13:57:15 GMT iain said:

Nov 11, 2024 13:55:19 GMT rcronald said:

They had a good cycle in exactly 1 state (FL)

They did particularly well in NY, Arizona and nationally, well in Texas and NE-2, and they also did pretty decently in their subgroup polling with Latinos and in the other battlegrounds (though their early rust belt polls were a bit generous to Harris).

I can’t think of any big misses from them.

They missed NY by 7%, TX by 4%, NE-2 by 9%. I don’t know what they had in AZ.

[iain]

Nov 11, 2024 14:02:09 GMT rcronald said:

Nov 11, 2024 13:57:15 GMT iain said:

They did particularly well in NY, Arizona and nationally, well in Texas and NE-2, and they also did pretty decently in their subgroup polling with Latinos and in the other battlegrounds (though their early rust belt polls were a bit generous to Harris).

I can’t think of any big misses from them.

They missed NY by 7%, TX by 4%, NE-2 by 9%. I don’t know what they had in AZ.

Their three polls in NY had Harris up 14%, 13% and 19% (actual 12% - seems they unfortunately got something at the edge of the MoE in their final poll). In Texas, where most polls showed a tight(ish) race they had her down 11% (actual 14%). They were too bullish for Harris in NE-2, i slightly misremembered their result. Arizona looks likely to end up Trump +5-6, and their last two polls showed him up 4 and 6.

Polls are never going to be dead on, and NYT/Siena basically got the story of the election correct ahead of time.

[stb12]

If Rubio is selected as Secretary of State I wonder if DeSantis might appoint a willing placeholder and run in the 2026 special election when he’ll be term limited as Governor? He did actually run for the seat in 2016 before dropping out when Rubio ended his Presidential campaign and decided to run for re-election

He’ll no doubt want to have another go at being President but being in the Senate could be more beneficial for that than being out of elected office

[riccimarsh]

Nov 13, 2024 1:15:35 GMT stb12 said:

If Rubio is selected as Secretary of State I wonder if DeSantis might appoint a willing placeholder and run in the 2026 special election when he’ll be term limited as Governor? He did actually run for the seat in 2016 before dropping out when Rubio ended his Presidential campaign and decided to run for re-election

He’ll no doubt want to have another go at being President but being in the Senate could be more beneficial for that than being out of elected office

Maybe one of the Mar-a-Lago crew, in order for DeSantis to attempt to re-ingratiate himself with the President-elect in return for a 2026 endorsement?? Say… current RNC co-chair Lara Trump??

[sanders]

A DeSantis - Harris county in Florida.

[rcronald]

Nov 19, 2024 7:51:15 GMT sanders said:

A DeSantis - Harris county in Florida.

Should be noted that the rest of the gop ticket also lost Palm Beach in 2022.