stb12
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Florida
Sept 5, 2024 23:00:42 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Sept 5, 2024 23:00:42 GMT
30 electoral college votes
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Post by sanders on Oct 20, 2024 6:37:18 GMT
Rick Scott spending his own money. He's putting $3 million into this. It doesn't suggest he's super confident.
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Post by sanders on Oct 24, 2024 17:46:55 GMT
I always love the Florida data. Republicans now have a good lead. Florida feels pretty nostalgic now, really.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 25, 2024 10:23:38 GMT
I always love the Florida data. Republicans now have a good lead. Florida feels pretty nostalgic now, really. It’s even worse for the Dems now. The have a 1% lead in Miami Dade (which is likely to expand), and are only behind by 7% in Osceola, which is the only majority Puerto Rican county in the mainland.
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Post by sanders on Oct 25, 2024 10:33:23 GMT
I always love the Florida data. Republicans now have a good lead. Florida feels pretty nostalgic now, really. It’s even worse for the Dems now. The have a 1% lead in Miami Dade (which is likely to expand), and are only behind by 7% in Osceola, which is the only majority Puerto Rican county in the mainland. Trump's also doing quite well with Jewish voters in Miami, from what I gather. Proportionally, Miami is one of the most Jewish cities in the USA. I could see Trump carrying Debbie Wasserman-Schultz's FL-25, or getting very close. Republicans got 45% there in 2022. That might be a surprise flip but DWS is a good fit for the seat.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 25, 2024 10:39:43 GMT
It’s even worse for the Dems now. The have a 1% lead in Miami Dade (which is likely to expand), and are only behind by 7% in Osceola, which is the only majority Puerto Rican county in the mainland. Trump's also doing quite well with Jewish voters in Miami, from what I gather. Proportionally, Miami is one of the most Jewish cities in the USA. I could see Trump carrying Debbie Wasserman-Schultz's FL-25, or getting very close. Republicans got 45% there in 2022. That might be a surprise flip but DWS is a good fit for the seat. of the 3 heavily Jewish (over 20% in each) seats, the most likely to flip at the presidential level is Moskowitz’s FL-23. The most Jewish of the 3 is Frankel’s, which is also Trump’s congressional district!
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Oct 25, 2024 11:36:22 GMT
Trump's also doing quite well with Jewish voters in Miami, from what I gather. Proportionally, Miami is one of the most Jewish cities in the USA. I could see Trump carrying Debbie Wasserman-Schultz's FL-25, or getting very close. Republicans got 45% there in 2022. That might be a surprise flip but DWS is a good fit for the seat. of the 3 heavily Jewish (over 20% in each) seats, the most likely to flip at the presidential level is Moskowitz’s FL-23. The most Jewish of the 3 is Frankel’s, which is also Trump’s congressional district! Donald "Hitler did some good things" Trump winning lots of Jewish votes is a novel thought.
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Florida
Oct 25, 2024 11:38:24 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Oct 25, 2024 11:38:24 GMT
of the 3 heavily Jewish (over 20% in each) seats, the most likely to flip at the presidential level is Moskowitz’s FL-23. The most Jewish of the 3 is Frankel’s, which is also Trump’s congressional district! Donald "Hitler did some good things" Trump winning lots of Jewish votes is a novel thought. Because Kamala is viewed as anti-Israel, and anti-Semitism has exploded under her term as vice president. Btw, you know that he has a Jewish daughter, and multiple grandchildren, right?
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Oct 25, 2024 12:10:49 GMT
Donald "Hitler did some good things" Trump winning lots of Jewish votes is a novel thought. Because Kamala is viewed as anti-Israel, and anti-Semitism has exploded under her term as vice president. Btw, you know that he has a Jewish daughter, and multiple grandchildren, right? Yes I do know that, which makes his remarks even more disgusting. I also know that Musk is funding lots of targeted ads in places like Michigan saying that Harris is anti-Muslim and then other ads in Florida claiming she is anti-Semitic. Some people seem to have sipped from one side of that poisoned cup. Musk has now been told by the authorities that his interference in the election may be illegal - that's opposed to the screaming fits Trump has when people from other countries turn up to knock on a few doors. According to him that's criminal but getting £1m a day from a Musk funded PAC is perfectly fine.
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Merseymike
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Florida
Oct 25, 2024 15:48:08 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 25, 2024 15:48:08 GMT
Donald "Hitler did some good things" Trump winning lots of Jewish votes is a novel thought. Because Kamala is viewed as anti-Israel, and anti-Semitism has exploded under her term as vice president. Rubbish. If she was anti-Israel I would applaud.
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Post by sanders on Oct 27, 2024 13:37:56 GMT
Republicans still dominating the Sunshine State. Now close to winning Palm Beach. It's a big Miami county down south. Democrats now lead in seven counties. They won five back in 2022.
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Post by sanders on Nov 10, 2024 6:18:55 GMT
Trump almost won Florida's 9th District. It's a heavily Puerto Rican seat.
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stb12
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Florida
Nov 10, 2024 20:42:22 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Nov 10, 2024 20:42:22 GMT
Although the results fit Florida’s trajectory in recent years the polling for the Presidential and Senate races really did generally indicate far tighter margins than we ended up with. Any particular reasons or theories behind the discrepancies?
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Florida
Nov 11, 2024 6:40:46 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Nov 11, 2024 6:40:46 GMT
Although the results fit Florida’s trajectory in recent years the polling for the Presidential and Senate races really did generally indicate far tighter margins than we ended up with. Any particular reasons or theories behind the discrepancies? Because pollsters can’t poll to save their lives.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 11, 2024 11:59:28 GMT
Though despite all the angst the nationwide polls again weren't massively out - falling the wrong side of a close result is an occupational hazard.
Its state polling which the US really seems to struggle with at times.
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Post by sanders on Nov 11, 2024 12:11:03 GMT
Though despite all the angst the nationwide polls again weren't massively out - falling the wrong side of a close result is an occupational hazard. Its state polling which the US really seems to struggle with at times. Polling minorities can often be difficult. Nevada has historically overestimated the Republicans. However, this time it wasn't bad.
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stb12
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Florida
Nov 11, 2024 12:34:20 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Nov 11, 2024 12:34:20 GMT
There were some state polling issues certainly, Florida just struck me as being way out as everywhere seemed to have Trump and Scott with single figure leads
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iain
Lib Dem
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Florida
Nov 11, 2024 13:54:43 GMT
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Post by iain on Nov 11, 2024 13:54:43 GMT
There were some state polling issues certainly, Florida just struck me as being way out as everywhere seemed to have Trump and Scott with single figure leads Except NYT/Siena (who had another very good polling cycle).
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Florida
Nov 11, 2024 13:55:19 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Nov 11, 2024 13:55:19 GMT
There were some state polling issues certainly, Florida just struck me as being way out as everywhere seemed to have Trump and Scott with single figure leads Except NYT/Siena (who had another very good polling cycle). They had a good cycle in exactly 1 state (FL)
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iain
Lib Dem
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Florida
Nov 11, 2024 13:57:15 GMT
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Post by iain on Nov 11, 2024 13:57:15 GMT
Except NYT/Siena (who had another very good polling cycle). They had a good cycle in exactly 1 state (FL) They did particularly well in NY, Arizona and nationally, well in Texas and NE-2, and they also did pretty decently in their subgroup polling with Latinos and in the other battlegrounds (though their early rust belt polls were a bit generous to Harris). I can’t think of any big misses from them.
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