California

[stb12]

54 electoral college votes

[sanders]

Another Republican Orange County bright spot. They may nab Katie Porter's seat. Vietnamese Americans delivering for them here. It's funny because Orange County flipped. 2016 was a big Democratic flip. Well, at least since 1936, anyway. Huntington Beach has changed hugely, FYI. So this is big for Republicans. This seat's predecessors were staunchly GOP. Porter's wins here were pretty historic. I hoped she would become Senator. Alas, Adam Schiff advanced instead sadly. 

40% of Biden voters were non-white. There's room to fall. We already saw this with Yung Kim and Michelle Steel winning in 2020 and 2022. 

[stb12]

Can’t find much in terms of pollster record but these would indicate some close races in California to help determine control of the House again

[sanders]

Sept 24, 2024 20:14:09 GMT stb12 said:

Can’t find much in terms of pollster record but these would indicate some close races in California to help determine control of the House again

Republicans polling well isn't that surprising. They've gained ground in Orange County. Many Vietnamese Americans live in CA-47. Republicans have gained ground with them. GOP gained House seats in 2020. Orange County is trending back somewhat. 2018 was a fluke I think. Democrats swept it back in 2018. A highly unusual result quite honestly. 38% voted to recall Newsom (2021). He won re-election by 19% (2022). Republicans carried CA-09 and CA-47 then. So yeah, they could win those.

[stb12]

[sanders]

Oct 29, 2024 17:02:23 GMT stb12 said:

Presidential polarisation catching up with him. Incidentally, if Valadao and Newhouse lose, there’ll be no Republicans in the House who voted to impeach Trump in 2021.

[stb12]

Oct 29, 2024 21:59:01 GMT sanders said:

Oct 29, 2024 17:02:23 GMT stb12 said:

Presidential polarisation catching up with him. Incidentally, if Valadao and Newhouse lose, there’ll be no Republicans in the House who voted to impeach Trump in 2021.

He might be able to still manage it but it will be tight

[rcronald]

Oct 29, 2024 23:07:30 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 29, 2024 21:59:01 GMT sanders said:

Presidential polarisation catching up with him. Incidentally, if Valadao and Newhouse lose, there’ll be no Republicans in the House who voted to impeach Trump in 2021.

He might be able to still manage it but it will be tight

The early voting has the gop over performing in the district (compared to 2020) by 10%.

[sanders]

Oct 30, 2024 3:32:09 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 29, 2024 23:07:30 GMT stb12 said:

He might be able to still manage it but it will be tight

The early voting has the gop over performing in the district (compared to 2020) by 10%.

That makes a lot of sense. California looks like Harris by 20. Last time Biden won by c30. Lots of Hispanics in Valadao's seat. I think Republicans hold the seat. Didn't Biden win it by 20%? Harris leading by 15% in polls. Trump's not gone after Valadao yet. He delivers the goods and wins. Republicans could also gain California's 47th. 

[rcronald]

In 2020, the Dems had a 10% turnout edge 7 days before the election, now the gop has a 3.3% turnout advantage.

The gop is doing better in every county compared to 2020.

2024 Turnout edge compared to registration by county:
Colusa (rural Hispanic majority) - R+7.9%
Fresno (Hispanic majority metro - city of Fresno) - R+6.5%
Glenn (rural half white half Hispanic) - R+6.3%
Kern (Hispanic majority metro - city of Bakersfield) - R+5.9%
Sutter (highly diverse) - R+5.4%
Tulare (rural Hispanic majority) - R+5.4%
Sierra (white rural) - R+5.4%
Kings (rural Hispanic majority) - R+5.3%
San Diego (diverse metro - city of San Diego) - R+4.3%
Napa (affluent white left leaning retirees) - R+4.2%
Madera (rural Hispanic majority) - R+4.1%
Monterey (Hispanic majority + left leaning white retirees) - R+4.1%
San Joaquin(highly diverse/impoverished Bay Area exurbs)- R+4%
San Mateo (affluent white/Asian Bay Area Suburbs) - R+3.9%
San Benito (rural Hispanic majority) - R+3.7%
San Francisco (city of SF) - R+3.6%
Alameda (highly diverse suburbs + Oakland + Berkeley) - R+3.5%
Santa Barbara (affluent white retirees + Hispanic workers) - R+3.4%
Merced (rural Hispanic majority + students) - R+3.4%
Imperial (rural Hispanic majority) - R+3.1%
Stanislaus (less diverse and impoverished version of SJ) - 3.1%
San Bernardino (Hispanic majority LA exurbs) - R+3%
Orange (highly diverse affluent LA suburbs/exurbs) - R+2.9%
Santa Clara(affluent & highly diverse-Silicon Valley/San Jose)R+2.8%
Santa Cruz (Students and Hippies) - R+2.5%
Ventura (affluent LA exurbs/ Hispanic farm workers) - R+2.1%
Los Angeles (city and a lot of suburbs) - R+2%
Contra Costa (lower middle class diverse Bay Area suburbs) - R+2%
Humboldt (Hippies, loggers , and weed farmers) - R+1.5%
Sacramento (highly diverse - city and suburbs) - R+1.4%
Butte (Students, hippies, WWC) - R+1.3%
Plumas (Tourists and WWC) - R+1.3%
Solano (working class Bay Area exurbs) - R+1.2%
Riverside (diverse middle class LA exurbs) - R+1%
Sonoma (same as Napa + affluent suburbs) - R+0.9%
Nevada (affluent left leaning white retirees Lake Tahoe) - R+0.8
Yolo (students) - R+0.3%
Tehama (wwc and tourists) - R+0.2%
Marin (affluent suburban Bay Area hippies) - D+0.1%
Mendocino (same as Humboldt) - D+0.3%
Inyo (extremely rural Death Valley tourists) - D+2.4
El Dorado (Sacramento exurbs) - D+2.7
Mono (extremely rural Death Valley tourists) - D+2.8
Trinity (extremely rural - Humboldt with less hippies) - D+2.9
Del Norte (extremely rural - large prison) - D+3%
Shasta (tourists and wwc) - D+4%
Placer (Sacramento suburbs) - D+4.1%
Tuolumne (rural tourists) - D+4.1%
Mariposa (rural tourists) - D+4.2%
San Luis Obispo (tourists + left leaning white retirees) - D+4.5%
Lassen (rural - large prisons) - D+5.7%
Siskyou (extremely rural - tourists) - D+6.1%
Calaveras (rural and tourists) - D+6.6%
Amador (rural and tourists) - D+8.7%

[matureleft]

Oct 30, 2024 7:13:01 GMT rcronald said:

In 2020, the Dems had a 10% turnout edge 7 days before the election, now the gop has a 3% turnout advantage.

The gop is doing better in every county compared to 2020.

2024 Turnout edge compared to registration by county:
Colusa (rural Hispanic majority) - R+7.9%
Fresno (Hispanic majority metro - city of Fresno) - R+6.5%
Glenn (rural half white half Hispanic) - R+6.3%
Kern (Hispanic majority metro - city of Bakersfield) - R+5.9%
Sutter (highly diverse) - R+5.4%
Tulare (rural Hispanic majority) - R+5.4%
Sierra (white rural) - R+5.4%
Kings (rural Hispanic majority) - R+5.3%
San Diego (diverse metro - city of San Diego) - R+4.3%
Napa (affluent white left leaning retirees) - R+4.2%
Madera (rural Hispanic majority) - R+4.1%
Monterey (Hispanic majority + left leaning white retirees) - R+4.1%
San Joaquin(highly diverse/impoverished Bay Area exurbs)- R+4%
San Mateo (affluent white/Asian Bay Area Suburbs) - R+3.9%
San Benito (rural Hispanic majority) - R+3.7%
San Francisco (city of SF) - R+3.6%
Alameda (highly diverse suburbs + Oakland + Berkeley) - R+3.5%
Santa Barbara (affluent white retirees + Hispanic workers) - R+3.4%
Merced (rural Hispanic majority + students) - R+3.4%
Imperial (rural Hispanic majority) - R+3.1%
Stanislaus (less diverse and impoverished version of SJ) - 3.1%
San Bernardino (Hispanic majority LA exurbs) - R+3%
Orange (highly diverse affluent LA suburbs/exurbs) - R+2.9%
Santa Clara(affluent & highly diverse-Silicon Valley/San Jose)R+2.8%
Santa Cruz (Students and Hippies) - R+2.5%
Ventura (affluent LA exurbs/ Hispanic farm workers) - R+2.1%
Los Angeles (city and a lot of suburbs) - R+2%
Contra Costa (lower middle class diverse Bay Area suburbs) - R+2%
Humboldt (Hippies, loggers , and weed farmers) - R+1.5%
Sacramento (highly diverse - city and suburbs) - R+1.4%
Butte (Students, hippies, WWC) - R+1.3%
Plumas (Tourists and WWC) - R+1.3%
Solano (working class Bay Area exurbs) - R+1.2%
Riverside (diverse middle class LA exurbs) - R+1%
Sonoma (same as Napa + affluent suburbs) - R+0.9%
Nevada (affluent left leaning white retirees Lake Tahoe) - R+0.8
Yolo (students) - R+0.3%
Tehama (wwc and tourists) - R+0.2%
Marin (affluent suburban Bay Area hippies) - D+0.1%
Mendocino (same as Humboldt) - D+0.3%
Inyo (extremely rural Death Valley tourists) - D+2.4
El Dorado (Sacramento exurbs) - D+2.7
Mono (extremely rural Death Valley tourists) - D+2.8
Trinity (extremely rural - Humboldt with less hippies) - D+2.9
Del Norte (extremely rural - large prison) - D+3%
Shasta (tourists and wwc) - D+4%
Placer (Sacramento suburbs) - D+4.1%
Tuolumne (rural tourists) - D+4.1%
Mariposa (rural tourists) - D+4.2%
San Luis Obispo (tourists + left leaning white retirees) - D+4.5%
Lassen (rural - large prisons) - D+5.7%
Siskyou (extremely rural - tourists) - D+6.1%
Calaveras (rural and tourists) - D+6.6%
Amador (rural and tourists) - D+8.7%

The circumstances were rather different. Trump spent a lot of energy discouraging any voting that wasn’t done in person, on the day. And, as we know, his supporters do listen to him. This time he’s been inconsistent certainly but more positive and we can assume that the professionals in the GOP have got on with organising it.

[rcronald]

Oct 30, 2024 7:25:43 GMT matureleft said:

Oct 30, 2024 7:13:01 GMT rcronald said:

In 2020, the Dems had a 10% turnout edge 7 days before the election, now the gop has a 3% turnout advantage.

The gop is doing better in every county compared to 2020.

2024 Turnout edge compared to registration by county:
Colusa (rural Hispanic majority) - R+7.9%
Fresno (Hispanic majority metro - city of Fresno) - R+6.5%
Glenn (rural half white half Hispanic) - R+6.3%
Kern (Hispanic majority metro - city of Bakersfield) - R+5.9%
Sutter (highly diverse) - R+5.4%
Tulare (rural Hispanic majority) - R+5.4%
Sierra (white rural) - R+5.4%
Kings (rural Hispanic majority) - R+5.3%
San Diego (diverse metro - city of San Diego) - R+4.3%
Napa (affluent white left leaning retirees) - R+4.2%
Madera (rural Hispanic majority) - R+4.1%
Monterey (Hispanic majority + left leaning white retirees) - R+4.1%
San Joaquin(highly diverse/impoverished Bay Area exurbs)- R+4%
San Mateo (affluent white/Asian Bay Area Suburbs) - R+3.9%
San Benito (rural Hispanic majority) - R+3.7%
San Francisco (city of SF) - R+3.6%
Alameda (highly diverse suburbs + Oakland + Berkeley) - R+3.5%
Santa Barbara (affluent white retirees + Hispanic workers) - R+3.4%
Merced (rural Hispanic majority + students) - R+3.4%
Imperial (rural Hispanic majority) - R+3.1%
Stanislaus (less diverse and impoverished version of SJ) - 3.1%
San Bernardino (Hispanic majority LA exurbs) - R+3%
Orange (highly diverse affluent LA suburbs/exurbs) - R+2.9%
Santa Clara(affluent & highly diverse-Silicon Valley/San Jose)R+2.8%
Santa Cruz (Students and Hippies) - R+2.5%
Ventura (affluent LA exurbs/ Hispanic farm workers) - R+2.1%
Los Angeles (city and a lot of suburbs) - R+2%
Contra Costa (lower middle class diverse Bay Area suburbs) - R+2%
Humboldt (Hippies, loggers , and weed farmers) - R+1.5%
Sacramento (highly diverse - city and suburbs) - R+1.4%
Butte (Students, hippies, WWC) - R+1.3%
Plumas (Tourists and WWC) - R+1.3%
Solano (working class Bay Area exurbs) - R+1.2%
Riverside (diverse middle class LA exurbs) - R+1%
Sonoma (same as Napa + affluent suburbs) - R+0.9%
Nevada (affluent left leaning white retirees Lake Tahoe) - R+0.8
Yolo (students) - R+0.3%
Tehama (wwc and tourists) - R+0.2%
Marin (affluent suburban Bay Area hippies) - D+0.1%
Mendocino (same as Humboldt) - D+0.3%
Inyo (extremely rural Death Valley tourists) - D+2.4
El Dorado (Sacramento exurbs) - D+2.7
Mono (extremely rural Death Valley tourists) - D+2.8
Trinity (extremely rural - Humboldt with less hippies) - D+2.9
Del Norte (extremely rural - large prison) - D+3%
Shasta (tourists and wwc) - D+4%
Placer (Sacramento suburbs) - D+4.1%
Tuolumne (rural tourists) - D+4.1%
Mariposa (rural tourists) - D+4.2%
San Luis Obispo (tourists + left leaning white retirees) - D+4.5%
Lassen (rural - large prisons) - D+5.7%
Siskyou (extremely rural - tourists) - D+6.1%
Calaveras (rural and tourists) - D+6.6%
Amador (rural and tourists) - D+8.7%

The circumstances were rather different. Trump spent a lot of energy discouraging any voting that wasn’t done in person, on the day. And, as we know, his supporters do listen to him. This time he’s been inconsistent certainly but more positive and we can assume that the professionals in the GOP have got on with organising it.

they are doing better than in 2016,2018,2022, and the 2024 primaries as well (but obviously not to the same extent).

[iain]

Looking at early voting numbers is worthless (outside of Nevada, where it still needs to be taken with a big heap of salt)

[rcronald]

Oct 30, 2024 8:57:25 GMT iain said:

Looking at early voting numbers is worthless (outside of Nevada, where it still needs to be taken with a big heap of salt)

CA is an all mail state, so it is useful there (especially trends).

[iain]

Oct 30, 2024 9:02:20 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 30, 2024 8:57:25 GMT iain said:

Looking at early voting numbers is worthless (outside of Nevada, where it still needs to be taken with a big heap of salt)

CA is an all mail state, so it is useful there (especially trends).

All it can tell us is who is sending mail back early. In 2020 Ds returned mail ballots extremely quickly all over the country, this time it looks like Republicans are (e.g. in Virginia there were a lot of excited Rs a couple of weeks back, but Democrats have been catching up to their expected position quickly in the past few days). It tells us nothing about the final makeup of the electorate, particularly in California where mail ballots will still be coming in for the next month.

[aargauer]

Oct 30, 2024 8:57:25 GMT iain said:

Looking at early voting numbers is worthless (outside of Nevada, where it still needs to be taken with a big heap of salt)

Perhaps in CA it is less useful than elsewhere, but that is an absolutely absurd thing to say in the round.

[iain]

Oct 30, 2024 10:41:42 GMT aargauer said:

Oct 30, 2024 8:57:25 GMT iain said:

Looking at early voting numbers is worthless (outside of Nevada, where it still needs to be taken with a big heap of salt)

Perhaps in CA it is less useful than elsewhere, but that is an absolutely absurd thing to say in the round.

No it isn't. Early voting tells us virtually nothing about the makeup of the final electorate. It is particularly useless given the changes in voting behaviour over the pandemic, but even before then in 2016 this 'analysis' was used to project a Clinton victory.

See the chart here for example:

[aargauer]

That's an argument against overinterpretation, especially with respect to comparing a presidential election with a mid term election, not that the results are meaningless. Early voting data tells you neither nothing nor everything.

[iain]

Oct 30, 2024 11:13:25 GMT aargauer said:

That's an argument against overinterpretation, especially with respect to comparing a presidential election with a mid term election, not that the results are meaningless. Early voting data tells you neither nothing nor everything.

Early vote data simply isn't predictive.

[riccimarsh]

It’s incredible that in some parts of California they’ve still only counted fewer than a third of the votes: