Arizona

[sanders]

Arizona polling is generally more favourable to Trump than Georgia and North Carolina. There are far more African Americans in the latter two. This is a border state while those other two aren't. It's interesting as in 2022, Arizona was bluer, with Dems winning the Senate seat, governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General. Now you might say that some or all of those were due to candidate quality, and that current polls are too close to call, but still, it's a shift from 2022 to be sure.

[stb12]

[sanders]

Democrats have a 60 vote lead in Tucson East (Arizona's 6th Congressional District) so another silver lining for them along with Gallego who is on track to win here. Republicans held the 1st Congressional District (Phoenix Scottsdale) with David Schweikert winning it for the GOP. 

[swanarcadian]

Do we know the result in Arizona yet?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

None of the networks or major websites have called it yet, save one.

[sanders]

Presidential election: CON gain from LAB

Senate election looks like LAB hold

[swanarcadian]

Nov 9, 2024 20:26:52 GMT sanders said:

Presidential election: CON gain from LAB

Senate election looks like LAB hold

Thanks for the information..

[myth11]

Nov 9, 2024 20:17:50 GMT swanarcadian said:

Do we know the result in Arizona yet?

With 540K ish votes to count Trump has a 183k advantage so he is fairly likely to win but still an outside chance for Harris hence the lack of calls.

[manchesterman]

Senate result (with 95% counted):

Gallego 50%
Lake 47.8
Quintana (grn) 2.2%


So very likely Dem win (in fact 270 to win have called it), yet even after Trump's win, the overall Senate win and almost certain House win (i.e. Trifecta), that's still not enough for some goons..

[eastmidlandsright]

Leaving aside that Lake is a nutter, albeit not one without some appeal, it is very easy given Trump's performance among Hispanic voters to see plenty of voters going Trump for President and Gallego for Senate.

[manchesterman]

Indeed, but not according to followers of said nutter. Have you seen some of the comments below the tweet!

[sanders]

Nov 11, 2024 21:52:10 GMT manchesterman said:

Senate result (with 95% counted):

Gallego 50%
Lake 47.8
Quintana (grn) 2.2%


So very likely Dem win (in fact 270 to win have called it), yet even after Trump's win, the overall Senate win and almost certain House win (i.e. Trifecta), that's still not enough for some goons..

Kari Lake should definitely run for Governor of Arizona again. Democrats would REALLY hate it if that happened...

[stb12]

Flipping back to Trump demonstrates that the state still has a strong conservative lean, however the Arizona GOP really need to find at least fairly normal nominees to have a chance going forward

[rcronald]

Nov 12, 2024 8:10:47 GMT stb12 said:

Flipping back to Trump demonstrates that the state still has a strong conservative lean, however the Arizona GOP really need to find at least fairly normal nominees to have a chance going forward

Plenty of evidence in most southern and western states that right of centre suburban voters who voted Biden returned en-masse. Considering how hard places like northern Maricopa county, suburban Dallas, and suburban Nashville swung, I suspect that the Trump-Biden-Trump voters there are probably traumatised for life.

[stb12]

Nov 12, 2024 10:17:32 GMT rcronald said:

Nov 12, 2024 8:10:47 GMT stb12 said:

Flipping back to Trump demonstrates that the state still has a strong conservative lean, however the Arizona GOP really need to find at least fairly normal nominees to have a chance going forward

Plenty of evidence in most southern and western states that right of centre suburban voters who voted Biden returned en-masse. Considering how hard places like northern Maricopa county, suburban Dallas, and suburban Nashville swung, I suspect that the Trump-Biden-Trump voters there are probably traumatised for life.

I think I’m right in saying there’s four states that Trump won where the Democrats hold both senators and still will after these elections (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan)

[rcronald]

Nov 12, 2024 10:28:26 GMT stb12 said:

Nov 12, 2024 10:17:32 GMT rcronald said:

Plenty of evidence in most southern and western states that right of centre suburban voters who voted Biden returned en-masse. Considering how hard places like northern Maricopa county, suburban Dallas, and suburban Nashville swung, I suspect that the Trump-Biden-Trump voters there are probably traumatised for life.

I think I’m right in saying there’s four states that Trump won where the Democrats hold both senators and still will after these elections (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan)

Yes. But AZ is due to subpar candidates. (NV and MI are also bluer downballot)

GA is gone for the gop long term because of black migration to Atlanta.

[sanders]

Nov 12, 2024 10:33:44 GMT rcronald said:

Nov 12, 2024 10:28:26 GMT stb12 said:

I think I’m right in saying there’s four states that Trump won where the Democrats hold both senators and still will after these elections (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan)

Yes. But AZ is due to subpar candidates. (NV and MI are also bluer downballot)

GA is gone for the gop long term because of black migration to Atlanta.

Yes although the Governor's race should be competitive in 2026. Plus Brian Kemp (current Governor) may run for Senate. But yes, it's clearly left-trending. Compare the results in Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) to 2004 when the Republicans last won the popular vote. A massive swing.