Arizona

[stb12]

11 electoral college votes

[sanders]

Polls increasingly favour the Democrats in Arizona's 1st Distrcit and put Arizona's 6th as a tossup. These probably hold the key to the states' electoral votes, containing Scottsdale and Tucson, respectively. I would be gobsmacked if Kari Lake doesn't end up tanking the GOP in a big way here. The border is an important issue, but one that Harris is neutralising with key endorsements like the Mesa mayor. For what it's worth, Trump has no path to winning the Grand Canyon State without Mesa (which he won by 9% in 2020, and 16% in 2016).

[stb12]

thehill.com/latino/4904672-harris-calls-for-tougher-border-security-immigration-reform-in-arizona/

Some tough immigration talk from Harris in Arizona, despite their recent successes it's still a potential weak area for the Democrats in the state.

[sanders]

Kari Lake still crashing and burning. Still, Trump's odds are improving here. I think Gallego will carry Harris. Reverse coattails effect is a thing. It will surely impact the election. Quite pronounced in AZ and NC. Kari Lake, like Mark Robinson - disaster. That's a narrow Trump lead anyway. Averaging a sub-1% lead isn't great.  

[stb12]

Yougov poll, again Trump looking in better shape than Lake

[edgbaston]

Oct 17, 2024 21:25:16 GMT stb12 said:

Yougov poll, again Trump looking in better shape than Lake

It would be hilarious if the democrats narrowly carried the presidency by winning only the rust belt swing states. And narrowly held the senate by winning all the tight races in Trump won states.

[iain]

It is quite difficult to imagine the Trump-Gallego voter. Trump-Shapiro (as opposed to Mastriano) in Pennsylvania or Trump-Stein (as opposed to Robinson) in North Carolina, sure. But Lake’s crazy and Trump’s crazy are pretty similar - I can only assume that there is a healthy dose of sexism here, with Lake’s election denialism somehow reading as madder than Trump’s to a certain group of voters.

[stb12]

Oct 17, 2024 21:43:19 GMT iain said:

It is quite difficult to imagine the Trump-Gallego voter. Trump-Shapiro (as opposed to Mastriano) in Pennsylvania or Trump-Stein (as opposed to Robinson) in North Carolina, sure. But Lake’s crazy and Trump’s crazy are pretty similar - I can only assume that there is a healthy dose of sexism here, with Lake’s election denialism somehow reading as madder than Trump’s to a certain group of voters.

We have seen a few examples over the last few years that demonstrate only Trump himself can really successfully do Trump. Lake really has done terribly though, she only very narrowly lost the governors race but looks like she’ll be lucky to not lose this by double digits

For what it’s worth Gallego has made a notable effort to moderate himself especially on issues like the border after being seen as more of a progressive in the House

[stb12]

Oct 17, 2024 21:38:49 GMT edgbaston said:

Oct 17, 2024 21:25:16 GMT stb12 said:

Yougov poll, again Trump looking in better shape than Lake

It would be hilarious if the democrats narrowly carried the presidency by winning only the rust belt swing states. And narrowly held the senate by winning all the tight races in Trump won states.

I’m sure Trump will graciously accept defeat in that scenario

[iain]

Oct 17, 2024 21:50:43 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 17, 2024 21:43:19 GMT iain said:

It is quite difficult to imagine the Trump-Gallego voter. Trump-Shapiro (as opposed to Mastriano) in Pennsylvania or Trump-Stein (as opposed to Robinson) in North Carolina, sure. But Lake’s crazy and Trump’s crazy are pretty similar - I can only assume that there is a healthy dose of sexism here, with Lake’s election denialism somehow reading as madder than Trump’s to a certain group of voters.

We have seen a few examples over the last few years that demonstrate only Trump himself can really successfully do Trump. Lake really has done terribly though, she only very narrowly lost the governors race but looks like she’ll be lucky to not lose this by double digits

For what it’s worth Gallego has made a notable effort to moderate himself especially on issues like the border after being seen as more of a progressive in the House

I don’t quite agree - other Trump-era downballot candidates who have performed poorly aren’t really in Trump’s image. They have mostly been people who come across pretty creepy and dislikeable (Vance in OH and Mastriano in AZ come to mind) and are often pretty extreme social conservatives (those two again, plus Mastriano in PA or Dixon in MI).

Lake on the other hand pretty explicitly cultivated an image based on Trump. She is a good media performer, doesn’t (always) come across as someone you would cross the street to avoid, and, probably most importantly, had a pre-existing media profile in the state, meaning many voters had a opinion of her already, and were less likely to accept charges of extremism against her.

All that meant that, despite being arguably the maddest candidate the GOP put up in a swing state in 2022, she had the best performance as a non-incumbent.

This seems to have changed only post-2022, with her (very noisy) refusal to admit that she lost the Gubernatorial race being essentially the only thing which has changed. This has basically transformed her from the Republicans’ best swing state candidate to their worst.

For a certain section of the electorate it appears that Lake’s election-denial is beyond the pale, but Trump’s election-denial is not. I would posit that maybe Lake’s craziness is just fresher in the mind, but given how much Trump is still going on about how he won (plus the fact that the consequences were so much worse) I’m really not convinced. Beyond that I struggle to find much beyond straightforward sexism, probably unconscious for the vast majority, leading them to vote against the two female candidates.

[stb12]

Oct 17, 2024 22:17:27 GMT iain said:

Oct 17, 2024 21:50:43 GMT stb12 said:

We have seen a few examples over the last few years that demonstrate only Trump himself can really successfully do Trump. Lake really has done terribly though, she only very narrowly lost the governors race but looks like she’ll be lucky to not lose this by double digits

For what it’s worth Gallego has made a notable effort to moderate himself especially on issues like the border after being seen as more of a progressive in the House

I don’t quite agree - other Trump-era downballot candidates who have performed poorly aren’t really in Trump’s image. They have mostly been people who come across pretty creepy and dislikeable (Vance in OH and Mastriano in AZ come to mind) and are often pretty extreme social conservatives (those two again, plus Mastriano in PA or Dixon in MI).

Lake on the other hand pretty explicitly cultivated an image based on Trump. She is a good media performer, doesn’t (always) come across as someone you would cross the street to avoid, and, probably most importantly, had a pre-existing media profile in the state, meaning many voters had a opinion of her already, and were less likely to accept charges of extremism against her.

All that meant that, despite being arguably the maddest candidate the GOP put up in a swing state in 2022, she had the best performance as a non-incumbent.

This seems to have changed only post-2022, with her (very noisy) refusal to admit that she lost the Gubernatorial race being essentially the only thing which has changed. This has basically transformed her from the Republicans’ best swing state candidate to their worst.

For a certain section of the electorate it appears that Lake’s election-denial is beyond the pale, but Trump’s election-denial is not. I would posit that maybe Lake’s craziness is just fresher in the mind, but given how much Trump is still going on about how he won (plus the fact that the consequences were so much worse) I’m really not convinced. Beyond that I struggle to find much beyond straightforward sexism, probably unconscious for the vast majority, leading them to vote against the two female candidates.

All good points and analysis there

[sanders]

Oct 17, 2024 22:17:27 GMT iain said:

Oct 17, 2024 21:50:43 GMT stb12 said:

We have seen a few examples over the last few years that demonstrate only Trump himself can really successfully do Trump. Lake really has done terribly though, she only very narrowly lost the governors race but looks like she’ll be lucky to not lose this by double digits

For what it’s worth Gallego has made a notable effort to moderate himself especially on issues like the border after being seen as more of a progressive in the House

I don’t quite agree - other Trump-era downballot candidates who have performed poorly aren’t really in Trump’s image. They have mostly been people who come across pretty creepy and dislikeable (Vance in OH and Mastriano in AZ come to mind) and are often pretty extreme social conservatives (those two again, plus Mastriano in PA or Dixon in MI).

Lake on the other hand pretty explicitly cultivated an image based on Trump. She is a good media performer, doesn’t (always) come across as someone you would cross the street to avoid, and, probably most importantly, had a pre-existing media profile in the state, meaning many voters had a opinion of her already, and were less likely to accept charges of extremism against her.

All that meant that, despite being arguably the maddest candidate the GOP put up in a swing state in 2022, she had the best performance as a non-incumbent.

This seems to have changed only post-2022, with her (very noisy) refusal to admit that she lost the Gubernatorial race being essentially the only thing which has changed. This has basically transformed her from the Republicans’ best swing state candidate to their worst.

For a certain section of the electorate it appears that Lake’s election-denial is beyond the pale, but Trump’s election-denial is not. I would posit that maybe Lake’s craziness is just fresher in the mind, but given how much Trump is still going on about how he won (plus the fact that the consequences were so much worse) I’m really not convinced. Beyond that I struggle to find much beyond straightforward sexism, probably unconscious for the vast majority, leading them to vote against the two female candidates.

Sexism, really? In 2024? I don't think so at all. Arizona now has its second female governor, after Janet Napolitano, and has had two female Senators. FWIW, Arizona had a pretty big shift to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and she came close to winning the state. I think people just don't like sore losers, and in that regard, I see the Arizona audit as harming Republicans here - and the ongoing toxicity from the McCain debacle and Trump's seemingly personal vendetta against the late John McCain hasn't helped. I suspect if Trump wins, improvement with Hispanics probably explains why. They went from 15% of the electorate in Arizona in 2016 to 18% in 2020 which was fairly decisive for Biden along with Native American turnout in places like Apache County. We may see Santa Cruz and La Paz counties shift noticeably rightward.

[The Bishop]

Isn't it as simple as a number of voters being prepared, for various reasons, to grant Trump quite a bit more benefit of the doubt than other GOP candidates?

"Sexism" does indeed seem a bit of a stretch here, especially in a state that elected Kirsten Synema.

[sanders]

Oct 18, 2024 11:59:27 GMT The Bishop said:

Isn't it as simple as a number of voters being prepared, for various reasons, to grant Trump quite a bit more benefit of the doubt than other GOP candidates?

"Sexism" does indeed seem a bit of a stretch here, especially in a state that elected Kirsten Synema.

Both main candidates were women in 2018. Kyrsten Sinema vs Martha McSally, who’s lost both Senate seats in a state, along with John James of Michigan (now a Congressman).

[stb12]

Oct 18, 2024 11:59:27 GMT The Bishop said:

Isn't it as simple as a number of voters being prepared, for various reasons, to grant Trump quite a bit more benefit of the doubt than other GOP candidates?

"Sexism" does indeed seem a bit of a stretch here, especially in a state that elected Kirsten Synema.

Certainly in the swing states (think I’m correct in saying all of them bar Georgia also have a Senate race this year) he’s generally been running ahead of the GOP Senate candidates throughout the cycle, including when Biden was running

The Arizona gap does seem particularly high at times, and I guess people are sceptical based on the general decline in split ticket voting when it used to be so commonplace throughout the US. But that doesn’t mean there can’t still be some significant instances of this

[stb12]

Oct 18, 2024 12:12:02 GMT sanders said:

Oct 18, 2024 11:59:27 GMT The Bishop said:

Isn't it as simple as a number of voters being prepared, for various reasons, to grant Trump quite a bit more benefit of the doubt than other GOP candidates?

"Sexism" does indeed seem a bit of a stretch here, especially in a state that elected Kirsten Synema.

Both main candidates were women in 2018. Kyrsten Sinema vs Martha McSally, who’s lost both Senate seats in a state, along with John James of Michigan (now a Congressman).

In fairness big difference there is McSally lost them both as Republican held seats, whereas James was challenging Democrat incumbents both times and did pretty respectfully particularly in 2020

[sanders]

Oct 18, 2024 12:12:11 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 18, 2024 11:59:27 GMT The Bishop said:

Isn't it as simple as a number of voters being prepared, for various reasons, to grant Trump quite a bit more benefit of the doubt than other GOP candidates?

"Sexism" does indeed seem a bit of a stretch here, especially in a state that elected Kirsten Synema.

Certainly in the swing states (think I’m correct in saying all of them bar Georgia also have a Senate race this year) he’s generally been running ahead of the GOP Senate candidates throughout the cycle, including when Biden was running

The Arizona gap does seem particularly high at times, and I guess people are sceptical based on the general decline in split ticket voting when it used to be so commonplace throughout the US. But that doesn’t mean there can’t still be some significant instances of this

How good is polling of Hispanics and Native Americans here? The Navajo Nation was very important to Biden’s win in Arizona last time and had very high turnout on the reservations. The Navajo Nation voted about 90% Biden.

[stb12]

Oct 18, 2024 12:15:09 GMT sanders said:

Oct 18, 2024 12:12:11 GMT stb12 said:

Certainly in the swing states (think I’m correct in saying all of them bar Georgia also have a Senate race this year) he’s generally been running ahead of the GOP Senate candidates throughout the cycle, including when Biden was running

The Arizona gap does seem particularly high at times, and I guess people are sceptical based on the general decline in split ticket voting when it used to be so commonplace throughout the US. But that doesn’t mean there can’t still be some significant instances of this

How good is polling of Hispanics and Native Americans here? The Navajo Nation was very important to Biden’s win in Arizona last time and had very high turnout on the reservations. The Navajo Nation voted about 90% Biden.

I think the polling was generally fairly accurate for the state overall last time, Trump even outperformed it a bit (although that happened in a few places)

[iain]

Oct 18, 2024 11:59:27 GMT The Bishop said:

Isn't it as simple as a number of voters being prepared, for various reasons, to grant Trump quite a bit more benefit of the doubt than other GOP candidates?

"Sexism" does indeed seem a bit of a stretch here, especially in a state that elected Kirsten Synema.

I am not claiming that voters are being overtly sexist, more that the same behaviour comes off differently to voters coming from men and women (something which we know is true). As I said upthread, Lake is very similar to Trump in many ways, not just in terms of their stolen election claims, but in their pre-existing media profile. Obviously Trump's was bigger, so it stands to reason he might be more insulated (though not to this extent given the levels of polarisation). In terms of the election denial I suppose Trump's were given more credence by the media, but they also led to far more severe consequences, and polling shows that the average Trump-Gallego voter is someone who does believe that Joe Biden won the 2020 election. So clearly Lake's election-denial is a bridge too far, but Trump's election-denial is not a deal breaker for this group.

Then on the Kamala Harris side, it is clear that her being a woman is an obstacle for a meaningful number of swing voters. The line "I don't know if she's strong enough to stand up to world leaders" tends to be a common and pretty explicitly gendered critique, with a disturbingly large number (still a fairly small minority of this group) explicitly linking this to the fact that "Putin and Xi wouldn't respect a woman," or some such.

There is ample evidence, both qualitative and quantitative, that a segment of voters who are perfectly open to voting for women for all offices, but not for president. I'd imagine this will shift pretty rapidly once a woman is actually elected. But anyway, I'm talking more about the gendered way these candidates are looked at unconsciously rather than this more overtly sexist group of voters.

[stb12]

Oct 18, 2024 12:12:11 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 18, 2024 11:59:27 GMT The Bishop said:

Isn't it as simple as a number of voters being prepared, for various reasons, to grant Trump quite a bit more benefit of the doubt than other GOP candidates?

"Sexism" does indeed seem a bit of a stretch here, especially in a state that elected Kirsten Synema.

Certainly in the swing states (think I’m correct in saying all of them bar Georgia also have a Senate race this year) he’s generally been running ahead of the GOP Senate candidates throughout the cycle, including when Biden was running

The Arizona gap does seem particularly high at times, and I guess people are sceptical based on the general decline in split ticket voting when it used to be so commonplace throughout the US. But that doesn’t mean there can’t still be some significant instances of this

Just to correct myself here there’s no Senate race in North Carolina either, but there is the governors race which has been notable for obvious reasons