Conservatives win 75 seats in 2024

[sanders]

In our timeline the Lib Dems got over 70 and the Tories got around 120. What if the following happened?

LAB gain from CON: Basildon & Billericay; Beverley & Holderness; Bognor Regis & Littlehampton; Braintree; Bridlington & The Wilds; Brigg & Immingham; Broadland and Fakenham; Bromley & Biggin Hill; Chester South & Eddisbury; Chingford & Woodford Green; Croydon South; Devon Central; Dumfries & Galloway; Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale; Epping Forest; Essex North West; Fylde; Goole & Pocklington; Hereford; Keighley & Ilkley; Newark, Norfolk Mid, Norfolk North West; Northamptonshire South; Old Bexley & Sidcup; Orpington; Reigate; Salisbury; Skipton & Ripon; Romford; Spelthorne; Stockton West; Tatton; 

LAB hold: Leicester East; 

LD gain from CON: Beaconsfield, Buckinghamshire Mid, Farnham & Bordon; Godalming & Ash, Sevenoaks; 

RFM gain from CON: Bridgwater; Castle Point; Hornchurch & Upminster, Isle of Wight East;

SNP gain from CON: Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine;

SNP hold: Gordon & Buchan.

The final result is: Labour 445; LD 77, CON 75; SNP 11; RFM 10. Ed Davey becomes Leader of the Opposition. 

[The Bishop]

The Wrekin and Staffs Moorlands would be rather more likely Labour gains in this scenario than some listed there.

They are also likely holding Blackburn and Leicester South as well (though maybe still not Batley/Dewsbury or Islington North)

[kitesurfer]

I am going to assume the vote shares are not that different to what actually happened.

The Lib Dems would have a longer honeymoon, but, in my opinion, under Ed Davey, they would not hold the government to account on policy as much as the Tories would. Before the government becomes unpopular (assuming it does in this term), they can get away with it. If Labour get unpopular, they should consider ditching Davey for an Orange Book Lib Dem, but I doubt they would.

The Reform party would be boosted by more MPs and would have more confidence of becoming the main centre right party in future. I think a lot of people on the right would be furious about the fact that are very few MPs holding the government to account particularly when Labour and Dems combined had a relatively low share of the vote. This would result in lots of Reform councillors being elected and lots of Reform gains in by-elections. This would form the basis for the seats that they target in 2029.

I am assuming the Tories would pick someone like Jenrick or Patel as leader and they would flounder in the polls for at least the first half of the Parliament.

By the next election, if the Lib Dems continue to be seen as Labour’s bitch and the government is seen as lacklustre and/or just governing for cities and public sector workers, I think you could expect to see tactical voting against Labour and Lib Dems by right wing voters. I could see Reform having lots of MPs in the red wall and the Tories winning lots of seats back from Lib Dems and Labour in the south. The next election would be much closer. I suspect there would be a small Labour majority, however.

[stb12]

Davey is an orange booker isn’t he? Or was anyway

[Merseymike]

Aug 18, 2024 12:28:11 GMT stb12 said:

Davey is an orange booker isn’t he? Or was anyway

Not really. He had a chapter in the book, but he wasn't a free market type - not at all such as Clegg, Law, or Alexander.
I would see him as a social liberal.

[sanders]

Aug 18, 2024 12:28:11 GMT stb12 said:

Davey is an orange booker isn’t he? Or was anyway

Davey was integral in that, yes. 

No wonder LDs won across Surrey..,

Reclaiming Liberalism my arse - Thatcherite horseshit. 

[stodge]

There's a number of things flow from this scenario.

First, it's possible for the LDs to finish second in terms of seats but not in terms of votes - add five points to the LD poll share and take five from the Conservative so you have Lab 35%, Con 19%, LD 17%, Reform 14%, Green 8% for example and you can plot that out to Labour 441, LD 91, Con 71, SNP 11 and 36 Others.

That in itself would immediately start a huge debate on the electoral system with Davey leading calls for a change.

Davey would have to appoint a Shadow Cabinet which would have to include many of the newly elected MPs but that could be done in time for the opening of the new Parliament and the King's Speech.

With 18 of the 26 who attended the final pre-election Cabinet no longer in Parliament, Rishi Sunak struggled to build his new Shadow team. Oliver Dowden took over the role of Shadow Home Secreatry with James Cleverly replacing Lord Cameron as Shadow Foreign Secretary.

Bob Blackman had enjoyed one of the best results of a miserable night in Harrow East and he became the new Chairman of the 1922 Committee which would oversee the leadership election. Among the early contenders were Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Tom Tugendhat and Robert Jenrick. It was agreed all four would put their case to the party faithful at the Party Conference after which MPs would choose two to go to a membership ballot.

Labour settled in to Government but differences with the Opposition Liberal Democrats soon emerged as Chancellor Rachel Reeves sought to remove the winter fuel allowance for pensioners but this led to a furious Commons response from Daisy Cooper, the Liberal Democrat Deputy leader, supported by Wendy Chamberlin and Bobby Dean.

The horrific murder of three girls in Southport on 29th July led to a new crisis for the Government but the Liberal Democrats supported the response of Home Secretary Yvette Cooper but there were several days of unrest in a number of towns and cities which threw the question of immigration back up the political agenda.

[The Bishop]

Aug 18, 2024 11:25:37 GMT kitesurfer said:

I am going to assume the vote shares are not that different to what actually happened.

Actually the postulated seat outcome is about what I might expect had the polls actually been broadly correct - Labour around 40% (maybe slightly under) the Tories in the low 20s, Reform a bit above 15% rather than below. A good chance that the Tory "supermajority" scare had a real influence in stopping this happening.

[uthacalthing]

The hypocrisy is astonishing. You all support the banning of sanders for Forum Cluttering with Mod-grovelling enthusiasm but engaged equally enthusiaistically with his Forum Cluttering 

[nyx]

I am unsure as to the basis for the list given in the original post; it would surely be more reasonable to just take the list of marginal seats www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/conservative?election-type=uk-parliament&election=2024&order=swing

It turns out that there are 46 Conservative seats which would have been lost by a 3% swing against them. 121-46=75. Of those, one had Reform in second place (Hornchurch and Upminster), two had the SNP in second place (Gordon and Buchan, Dumfries and Galloway), six had the Lib Dems in second place (Godalming and Ash, Farnham and Bordon, East Hampshire, South Shropshire, North Dorset, Romsey and Southampton North), and the remaining 37 had Labour second. Result of all of those flipping would be Lab 448, LD 78, Con 75, SNP 11, Rfm 6. National vote share would probably be along the lines of Lab 35%, Con 21%, Rfm 15%, LD 13%.

Notable Conservative MPs to lose their seats in this scenario would be Kemi Badenoch, Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Chris Philp, Richard Holden, Caroline Nokes.

This sort of result would be a massive shock. Difficult especially for the Lib Dem leadership to transition immediately from 15 MPs to Official Opposition.

[uthacalthing]

Aug 20, 2024 22:24:24 GMT nyx said:

Notable Conservative MPs to lose their seats in this scenario would be Kemi Badenoch, Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Chris Philp, Richard Holden, Caroline Nokes.

This sort of result would be a massive shock. Difficult especially for the Lib Dem leadership to transition immediately from 15 MPs to Official Opposition.

wow