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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 29, 2024 22:33:11 GMT
HERTFORDSHIRE Bedwell
PLATER, Ellie (Labour) 962
CURTIS, Harry William (Conservative) 470
BAINBRIDGE, Janet Marie (Reform UK) 352
MANNAN, Riad (Liberal Democrats) 134
AHMED, Balgiisa (Green) 133
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307 
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Post by Terry Weldon on Aug 29, 2024 23:04:47 GMT
Respectable result for Reform?
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Post by oldhamexile on Aug 30, 2024 5:56:09 GMT
Respectable result for Reform? Yes but bear in mind UKIP used to poll very strongly in the Stevenage borough council wards that make up this division. At their peak in 2014 UKIP managed 28.0% in Bedwell; 28.8% in Martins Wood; and 28.3% in nearby Pin Green. |
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Post by robert1 on Aug 30, 2024 10:19:49 GMT
Taking 2013 as the comparitor, I think I have the relevant percentages as:-
Bedwell 2013 2024
Lab 49.2 46.9
UKIP/Reform 23.9 17.1
Con 18.0 22.9
LD 3.9 6.5
Grn 3.4 6.5
TUSC 1.6
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 30, 2024 10:58:37 GMT
Labour's share here has been notably consistent from 2013 until now - plus the previous incumbent was likely quite popular so this is a solid hold for them.
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Post by batman on Aug 30, 2024 11:39:37 GMT
blimey they're taking their time in Worcestershire considering how small the wards are in terms of electorate
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 30, 2024 12:12:48 GMT
Fresh from the twatters
Badsey & Aldington (Wychavon) Council By-Election Result:
🌳 CON: 32.7% (-23.5)
🔶 LDM: 28.8% (New)
🙋 IND: 27.4% (New)
🌹 LAB: 11.1% (-32.7)
Conservative HOLD.
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Aug 30, 2024 12:14:48 GMT
Badsey & Aldington:
CON: 186
LDM: 164
IND: 156
LAB: 63
Harvington & Norton:
IND: 327
CON: 195
LDM: 192
LAB: 53
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,814
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Post by iang on Aug 30, 2024 12:19:40 GMT
Seems curious that the LDs came much closer in the ward which was less hopeful on paper. Was there any specific local issue in Harvington behind the Indy success?
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 30, 2024 12:23:56 GMT
I saw the Harvington Indo's leaflet on his social media it was absolutely top-notch.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 30, 2024 12:26:51 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +2
Grn +0
LDm -9
Con -104
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,034
Member is Online
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Post by nyx on Aug 30, 2024 12:29:06 GMT
Fresh from the twatters Badsey & Aldington (Wychavon) Council By-Election Result: 🌳 CON: 32.7% (-23.5) 🔶 LDM: 28.8% (New) 🙋 IND: 27.4% (New) 🌹 LAB: 11.1% (-32.7) Conservative HOLD. A hold is a hold but that's a rather embarrassingly low vote share for the Tories to win on. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 30, 2024 12:51:42 GMT
I saw the Harvington Indo's leaflet on his social media it was absolutely top-notch. He did seem very organised and active. I would guess it's the kind of area where the right indies can do well (as both results show) but it's always difficult to predict how well in advance. |
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Post by kevinf on Aug 30, 2024 14:01:26 GMT
Fresh from the twatters Badsey & Aldington (Wychavon) Council By-Election Result: 🌳 CON: 32.7% (-23.5) 🔶 LDM: 28.8% (New) 🙋 IND: 27.4% (New) 🌹 LAB: 11.1% (-32.7) Conservative HOLD. Anyone know why the Lab vote collapsed? They can’t all be pensioners worried about the winter fuel changes… or is the assumption most of them would have voted Lib Dem if they had stood previously? |
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Post by owainsutton on Aug 30, 2024 14:10:08 GMT
Fresh from the twatters Badsey & Aldington (Wychavon) Council By-Election Result: 🌳 CON: 32.7% (-23.5) 🔶 LDM: 28.8% (New) 🙋 IND: 27.4% (New) 🌹 LAB: 11.1% (-32.7) Conservative HOLD. Anyone know why the Lab vote collapsed? They can’t all be pensioners worried about the winter fuel changes… or is the assumption most of them would have voted Lib Dem if they had stood previously? A pile of LD leaflets and nothing/one from Labour, is my guess. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 30, 2024 14:17:44 GMT
Fresh from the twatters Badsey & Aldington (Wychavon) Council By-Election Result: 🌳 CON: 32.7% (-23.5) 🔶 LDM: 28.8% (New) 🙋 IND: 27.4% (New) 🌹 LAB: 11.1% (-32.7) Conservative HOLD. Anyone know why the Lab vote collapsed? They can’t all be pensioners worried about the winter fuel changes… or is the assumption most of them would have voted Lib Dem if they had stood previously? Maybe just the difference between the actual Labour vote and the anti-Tory vote? |
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Post by owainsutton on Aug 30, 2024 16:24:25 GMT
Anyone know why the Lab vote collapsed? They can’t all be pensioners worried about the winter fuel changes… or is the assumption most of them would have voted Lib Dem if they had stood previously? Maybe just the difference between the actual Labour vote and the anti-Tory vote? Yes! That solid core (or rump, depending on your opinion) of anywhere from 5% to 30% or so, depending on the demographic, who won't ever shift. Every party has a similar core, albeit different percentages. |
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Aug 30, 2024 17:35:43 GMT
An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.
Following the 3 elections held on the 29th August, there have now been 91 ordinary by elections since 2nd May 2024.
The Conservatives have defended 24- Held 17 and lost 7, 5 to Labour, 1 to RefUK and 1 to an Independent (retention rate 71%) and have gained 5
Labour have defended 48- held 44 and lost 4, 2 to the Greens, 1 to the Conservatives and 1 to the Liberal Democrats ( retention rate 92%)and have gained 8
The Lib Dems have defended 11, held 6 and lost 5 - 2 each to Labour and the Conservatives and 1 to the SNP ( retention rate 55%) and have gained 1
The Greens have defended 2, held 2 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 2
RefUK have gained. 1 seat
SNP have gained 1 seat
There have been 6 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 3 were won by another Independent, 2 were gained by the Conservatives and 1 by Labour, and an Independent has gained 1 seat
Overall totals and net changes
Con 22 (-2)
Lab 52 (+4)
LD 7 (-4)
Green 4 (+2)
Ind 4 (-2)
RefUK 1 (+1)
SNP 1 (+1)
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 2, 2024 8:53:03 GMT
Anyone know why the Lab vote collapsed? They can’t all be pensioners worried about the winter fuel changes… or is the assumption most of them would have voted Lib Dem if they had stood previously? Maybe just the difference between the actual Labour vote and the anti-Tory vote? Yes, last time was a straight fight between Labour and the Tories. I can't see any particular reason why that ward should be stronger for Labour than any other rural Wychavon ward. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 2, 2024 13:38:08 GMT
Maybe just the difference between the actual Labour vote and the anti-Tory vote? Yes, last time was a straight fight between Labour and the Tories. I can't see any particular reason why that ward should be stronger for Labour than any other rural Wychavon ward. Frankly surprised they scored as well as they did last May despite being the only non-Tory option. |
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