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Post by manchesterman on Jul 21, 2024 22:05:23 GMT
I thought this merited a separate thread from the POTUS thread.
Who are the likely candidates to be picked by Harris (assuming there is no open contest, which isnt out of the question I suppose)?
Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro seem reasonable picks, given they are in key marginal states.
Whitmer, Newsom and Buttigieg are higher profile but more risky picks for various reasons?
Feel free to add your suggestions and discuss...
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Post by jimboo2017 on Jul 21, 2024 22:17:37 GMT
I thought this merited a separate thread from the POTUS thread. Who are the likely candidates to be picked by Harris (assuming there is no open contest, which isnt out of the question I suppose)? Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro seem reasonable picks, given they are in key marginal states. Whitmer, Newsom and Buttigieg are higher profile but more risky picks for various reasons? Feel free to add your suggestions and discuss... Is Boris Johnson Eligible, just thinking out loud |
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iain
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Post by iain on Jul 21, 2024 22:26:05 GMT
Beshear, Kelly and Shapiro seem most likely.
It will almost certainly be a white man, and Newsom has essentially nothing to recommend him (before you even get to the same-state complications).
Some other random midwestern or even southern bloke could also be a possibility.
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right
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Post by right on Jul 21, 2024 22:29:27 GMT
I thought this merited a separate thread from the POTUS thread. Who are the likely candidates to be picked by Harris (assuming there is no open contest, which isnt out of the question I suppose)? Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro seem reasonable picks, given they are in key marginal states. Whitmer, Newsom and Buttigieg are higher profile but more risky picks for various reasons? Feel free to add your suggestions and discuss... Is Boris Johnson Eligible, just thinking out loud He's born in the US, but I don't think he's a citizen for tax reasons |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 21, 2024 22:31:37 GMT
Would a fairly conservative Republican mix things up?
The Dems will swallow anything such is their irrational fear
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2024 23:29:01 GMT
I thought this merited a separate thread from the POTUS thread. Who are the likely candidates to be picked by Harris (assuming there is no open contest, which isnt out of the question I suppose)? Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro seem reasonable picks, given they are in key marginal states. Whitmer, Newsom and Buttigieg are higher profile but more risky picks for various reasons? Feel free to add your suggestions and discuss... Jimmy Carter |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jul 22, 2024 1:10:30 GMT
Joe Biden has lots of experience in the role.
And apparently this will be the first presidential election since 1976 without a Bush, Clinton or Biden on the ticket. So a shootout between Chelsea Clinton, Hunter Biden and Jeb! Bush for the lolz.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 22, 2024 8:51:59 GMT
Shapiro seems impressive, but is it too early for him?
Not sure about Beshear.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 22, 2024 10:35:16 GMT
Would a fairly conservative Republican mix things up? The Dems will swallow anything such is their irrational fear I heard someone throw into the ring the idea of Romney - which would certainly be "controversial"  |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 22, 2024 11:05:22 GMT
Romney is a whole year younger than Trump, just saying.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 22, 2024 11:11:39 GMT
Shapiro seems impressive, but is it too early for him? Shapiro is 51, so not as young as he looks, and has been in political office for 20 years. He is clever and presentable, no need to worry that this would be too soon for him. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 22, 2024 11:13:37 GMT
Romney is a whole year younger than Trump, just saying. He really doesn’t look it, Mormon lifestyle perhaps? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 22, 2024 14:07:51 GMT
Roy Cooper, governor of North Carolina, seems to have been mentioned a few times in the press today.
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Post by adlai52 on Jul 23, 2024 5:50:10 GMT
Beshear, Kelly and Shapiro seem most likely. It will almost certainly be a white man, and Newsom has essentially nothing to recommend him (before you even get to the same-state complications). Some other random midwestern or even southern bloke could also be a possibility. IIRC Newsome is ineligible - as Harris is from California and therefore her running mate has to be from another state. Probably a good thing, as Newsome as a running mate really doesn't help her. I think the strongest candidates are Beshear, who provides a nice contrast with Harris as a young, male, governor of a red state (who's also term limited) and Shapiro who - as a popular governor - might just be able to make a difference in Pennsylvania. Although I wonder is Shapiro really wants to play second fiddle to Harris only a few years after finally becoming Governor? Otherwise, Kelly could make sense and also Roy Cooper in NC - another term limited, southern governor - although he doesn't have the charisma of Beshear and may also prefer to run for Senate in the future. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 23, 2024 10:01:17 GMT
Beshear has a lot going for him but if there’s any thinking of the running mate helping win their home state then the others make more sense, no way Kentucky is flipping at Presidential level whoever is on the ballot this year
Whereas Shapiro is in a well known swing state, so is Kelly at Senate level. North Carolina has consistency disappointed the Democrats for some time at federal level is still narrow enough where Cooper could perhaps swing it
However wider appeal to the country no doubt has to be considered as well and I don’t know what the historical evidence is like for VP candidates being the key difference in their home states
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Post by adlai52 on Jul 23, 2024 10:20:56 GMT
Beshear has a lot going for him but if there’s any thinking of the running mate helping win their home state then the others make more sense, no way Kentucky is flipping at Presidential level whoever is on the ballot this year Whereas Shapiro is in a well known swing state, so is Kelly at Senate level. North Carolina has consistency disappointed the Democrats for some time at federal level is still narrow enough where Cooper could perhaps swing it However wider appeal to the country no doubt has to be considered as well and I don’t know what the historical evidence is like for VP candidates being the key difference in their home states I think the impact of running mates has been in decline for a long time, particularly when it come to having a meaningful impact in their home state. It would be hard to say that modern running mates from competitive states have made much difference (Bentsen, Gore, Edwards, Ryan, Kemp etc...). You could definitely argue that in the past running mates could have a pull in their home states - Lyndon Johnson being the most obvious example. I do think that even if he made a tiny difference, Shapiro deserves consideration just because of how important Pennsylvania is for Harris and his track record as a vote getter in that state. Otherwise, I think your looking at running mates based on what they deliver with voters nationally - there I think Beshear as a young, moderate, governor (who won state-wide 3 times) might help with some of the suburban and blue collar voters that Harris will want to (respectively) drive up her margins among or reassure. Then there is the contrast with Vance as Trump's running mate - there Beshear is a very good foil and tbh if that is a concern they should go with a running mate from outside Washington who doesn't play into the Trump/Vance 'outsider' pitch, which is a challenge for Harris. |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 23, 2024 12:06:10 GMT
While Kelly is from Arizona and it is trending purple the 4 Corners States cannot be seen as a lock and neither can Nevada for the Dems either given the streak of Libertarianism in the area which is from their Cowboy roots. If they want to put a serious effort at an unlikely assault at defending the Presidency they must pick a white Southern Democrat. Outside of Virginia the Commonwealth State have they any other real options?
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 23, 2024 14:55:22 GMT
VP pick depends of they want to run a Rust Belt or Sun Belt strategy. Rust Belt: Shapiro or Beshar. Sun Belt: Kelly or Cooper
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 23, 2024 15:34:34 GMT
..and I think it probably comes down to those 4 dosent it. With the eventual pick being somewhat dependent on the strategy as Elinor explained.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 23, 2024 15:45:03 GMT
..and I think it probably comes down to those 4 dosent it. With the eventual pick being somewhat dependent on the strategy as Elinor explained. I think it has to be Rust Belt. |
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