nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 3, 2024 17:39:10 GMT
Thread for discussion around it, all it appears so far is it may be at 133 polling stations this time, down from 144 in 2019.Done by IPSOS, Sky News website says with circa 17000 voters.
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Post by froome on Jul 3, 2024 19:36:55 GMT
Thread for discussion around it, all it appears so far is it may be at 133 polling stations this time, down from 144 in 2019.Done by IPSOS, Sky News website says with circa 17000 voters. I assume these will be in 133 different constituencies. Will we know in advance which these are? |
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 3, 2024 20:50:39 GMT
Thread for discussion around it, all it appears so far is it may be at 133 polling stations this time, down from 144 in 2019.Done by IPSOS, Sky News website says with circa 17000 voters. I assume these will be in 133 different constituencies. Will we know in advance which these are? I believe yes-1 polling station per seat, no we don't get told in advance,if at all unless you are exit polled and report it on social media etc! |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Jul 3, 2024 21:07:53 GMT
there was an item on how the exit polls are done on “more or less” this morning. I got a phone call so missed most of it but it will doubtless be on iplayer
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 3, 2024 21:16:15 GMT
there was an item on how the exit polls are done on “more or less” this morning. I got a phone call so missed most of it but it will doubtless be on iplayer Which programme was it on please? |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Jul 3, 2024 21:41:22 GMT
there was an item on how the exit polls are done on “more or less” this morning. I got a phone call so missed most of it but it will doubtless be on iplayer Which programme was it on please? Radio 4 at 9 am today so sounds, not i player |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 3, 2024 21:47:31 GMT
Which programme was it on please? Radio 4 at 9 am today so sounds, not i player Thanks. Newsnight from Monday just gone from just before 9 mins in to 16-17 mins has sir John Curtice and others discussing a bit on how they're done too |
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 7, 2024 14:34:21 GMT
Sample size quoted as either 20421 or 20401
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 7, 2024 14:40:38 GMT
Sample size quoted as either 20421 or 20401 But no sign of a spreadsheet unlike 2019. Poor do. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 7, 2024 15:43:00 GMT
Sample size quoted as either 20421 or 20401 But no sign of a spreadsheet unlike 2019. Poor do. Maybe put off by bit of backlash from some election watchers such as this forum? |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 9, 2024 20:10:31 GMT
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 31, 2024 13:56:37 GMT
Will likely need to polish into more readable form but this is what I picked up from BBC and ITN coverage and the revised forecasts:
BBC:Lab 405,Con 154,Lib Dem 56,SNP 6,PC 4,Ref 4,Green 2,Other 19-majority 160
410/144/58/8/4/4/2 other 20?
408/136/66/8/4/Green 2(4 reform),
411/127/70/9 snp/4 pc/4 ref/3 green, 22 other
ITN:414/130/60/ref 10/snp 11/others 25
414/127/68/ref 4/snp 8/others 26
413/123/68/4/10/28.
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 3, 2024 9:28:02 GMT
A quick write up in the style of the previous posts:
Notional 2019 results(UK):Con 372, Lab 201(including Speaker), SNP 48, Lib Dem 8,Plaid Cymru 2, Green 1, Northern Ireland 18.
2024 GB vote share: Lab 34.7%, Con 24.4%,Lib Dem 12.5%,SNP 2.5%,Green 6.9%,Reform 14.7%,Others 4.3%
UK seats(Speaker again in Lab total):Lab 412, Con 121, Lib Dem 72,SNP 9, Green 4,Reform 5,Plaid Cymru 4, Independents 5, Nothern Ireland 18
Again done for BBC/ITN/Sky News by IPSOS at 133 polling stations with sample size initially quoted by Sky News as 17000 but later reported after the day as 20421 or 20401 with IPSOS reporting final size as 21514.
Forecast result UK:Lab 410,Con 131, Lib Dem 61,SNP 10,Green 2, Reform 13,Plaid Cymru 4, Other 1,Northern Ireland 18
As mentioned elsewhere Sky as far as can tell didn't update the forecast o the basis of the results and it seemed ITN did it better than the BBC who at one point had the Tories overestimated by 33 seats.
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