Lowest winning vote share

[owainsutton]

Predictions for UK-wide, and each of the four nations.

Historically, the lowest have been:

25%: SDLP, Belfast South, 2015
26%: LD, Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber, 1992
27%: Con, Portsmouth Central, 1922
28%: DUP, Belfast North, 1979
29%: Plaid Cymru, Ceredigion, 2017
29%: LD, Norwich South, 2010

I'm setting Norwich South 2010 as the benchmark for England-only. Because those are the rules that I just made up.

[jakegb]

My predictions -

England: Ashfield
Potential for it to be very close between Zadronzy, Reform and Labour. 30% to 35% for the winning party. The Conservatives' vote share is likely to plummet, and it could be their Simon Wright moment of 2024 (pushed from 1st to 4th).

Scotland: East Renfrewshire
Anticipate that the SNP and Conservatives will both fall back significantly, to Labour's significant benefit. Could see a winning share around 30%.

Wales: Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. The fusion of Labour and Tory areas. Add the historical Lib Dem strength and the rise of Reform - and again I anticipate a low winning vote share (around 30% to 35%).

[nyx]

So many options that it's hard to decide on one, but I suspect the winner may beat the SDLP's record from 2015.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jul 2, 2024 18:37:09 GMT owainsutton said:

Predictions for UK-wide, and each of the four nations.

Historically, the lowest have been:

25%: SDLP, Belfast South, 2015
26%: LD, Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber, 1992
27%: Con, Portsmouth Central, 1922
28%: DUP, Belfast North, 1979
29%: Plaid Cymru, Ceredigion, 2017
29%: LD, Norwich South, 2010

I'm setting Norwich South 2010 as the benchmark for England-only. Because those are the rules that I just made up.

I see you, probably deliberately, excluded the 1909 Sheffield Attercliffe by-election won with 27.5% of the vote, by Labour.

[owainsutton]

I went with what Wikipedia deems 'modern times'. Maybe using the Representation of the People Act 1918 as the cut-off?

[nw12398]

Personally I can't see the Belfast South record being broken. You must either have 4 parties incredibly close together so that the small vote share for other parties allows the winner to get that low, or you have to have four parties fairly close with a 5th (and perhaps a 6th) holding out against being squeezed. Na h-Eileanan an Iar, maybe, but my guess is that Labour will get above 30%. I don't see any party other than the top 4 getting many votes in Ashfield, and I suspect if it really is a 4 way race the Conservatives will fall a bit behind the other three to those parties' benefit. Similarly in places like Exmouth and Exeter East, I think Reform will be far enough behind Con/Lab/LD and the Greens will be squeezed enough to stop such a low winning share.

[Pete Whitehead]

Havant - Reform gain with 26% of the vote

[Pete Whitehead]

For the other nations - yes has to be Brecon & Radnor in Wales. I'd say Aberdeen South in Scotland and maybe Lagan Valley in NI

[Crimson King]

long shot - Bradford West

[Tony Otim]

Right:
Scotland - Argyll & Bute
Wales - Ynys Mon
England - SW Norfolk (wishful thinking - conservative vote crashes to both indy and Reform whilst Labour vote increases).
N. Ireland - really no clue - South Antrim perhaps

[Tony Otim]

Jul 3, 2024 10:03:00 GMT Tony Otim said:

Right:
Scotland - Argyll & Bute
Wales - Ynys Mon
England - SW Norfolk (wishful thinking - conservative vote crashes to both indy and Reform whilst Labour vote increases).
N. Ireland - really no clue - South Antrim perhaps

On reflection, I'm going to change my England answer to Frome & Somerset East.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

I agree with much of what everyone else has said, but to be different I'll say:

England - Waveney Valley
Scotland - Dumfries and Galloway
Wales - Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
Northern Ireland - North Down

[Foggy]

Jul 3, 2024 7:22:49 GMT nw12398 said:

Personally I can't see the Belfast South record being broken. 

I agree for the UK, but the last German federal election in 2021 saw one constituency in Saxony being won with a pathetic 18.6% of the vote. Dynamics unlikely to be repeated there, mind you, let alone here!

[johnloony]

When I was making my original prediction for the seats prediction competition, I came up with a large number of seats which were (a) safe Conservative in 2019 (b) projected (approximately) to be 3-way marginals, with big shifts of votes from Conservative to Reform. The fact that there is going to be a big increase, across large swathes of the country, in the share of the vote for the Reform Party, and the fact that there are lots of different combinations of target seats or top-two-party combinations, make me think that there will be lots of constituencies with a relatively low share of the vote for the winning candidate, mostly in unexpected or not obvious places.

[arnieg]

SW Norfolk

Terry Jermy 11,847 26.5 (+8.2) Lab
Liz Truss 11,217 25.1 (-43.6) Con
Tobias McKenzie 9,958 22.3 (-) Reform

PS 43.6% drop in Tory vote share must be approaching record levels.

[johnloony]

Jul 5, 2024 12:05:26 GMT arnieg said:

SW Norfolk

Terry Jermy 11,847 26.5 (+8.2) Lab
Liz Truss 11,217 25.1 (-43.6) Con
Tobias McKenzie 9,958 22.3 (-) Reform

PS 43.6% drop in Tory vote share must be approaching record levels.

I think there are quite a few net Con/Lab swings of more than 20% this time, q.v. the list which Davıd Boothroyd listed a few days ago