General Election 2024 Turnout Prediction Competition.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

At the suggestion / behest of norflondon I am going to run a General Election 2024 Turnout Prediction Competition.

Rules

1. Predict the National turnout to 1 decimal place.

2. Also Predict the following 9 Constituency turnouts, to 1 decimal place.

• Clacton
  
• Richmond and Northallerton
  
• Rochdale
• Holborn and St Pancras
• Kingston and Surbiton
• Edinburgh South
  
• Ynys Mon
• North Down
• Glastonbury and Somerton
  

3. I will use the SKY turnout figures when calculating the results.

4. Accuracy counts as faults will be awarded for each 0.1% you are away on each prediction.

5. The winner will be the predictor with the lowest fault score.

EDIT: 6. Competition will close at OPENING of poll, 7am on Thursday 4th July.

As usual  a like means the prediction has been accepted.

Good luck

BD/T

National

Clacton
Richmond and Northallerton
Rochdale
Holborn and St Pancras
Kingston and Surbiton
Edinburgh South
Ynys Mon
North Down
Glastonbury and Somerton

[Tony Otim]

National - 63.4%

Clacton - 63.8%

Richmond and Northallerton - 65.2%

Rochdale - 58.9%

Holborn and St Pancras - 57.2%

Kingston and Surbiton - 67.8%

Edinburgh South - 66.6%*

Ynys Mon - 69.6%

North Down - 57.2%

Glastonbury and Somerton - 70.7%


* I think the timing of the election (Scottish schools break up on Friday this week and a lot of families go on holiday straight away to avoid the price hikes when the English schools finish) combined with a depressed SNP vote will mean that Scottish turnout falls more than average compared to the rest of the UK

[Sg1]

National - 63.3%
Clacton – 62.7%
Richmond and Northallerton – 67.2%
Rochdale – 59.3%
Holborn and St Pancras – 65.7%
Kingston and Surbiton – 72.0%
Edinburgh South – 73.6%
Ynys Mon – 69.2%
North Down – 61.6%
Glastonbury and Somerton - 73.1%

[manchesterman]

National 59.9%
Clacton 66.6%
Richmond and Northallerton 65.5%
Rochdale 57.7%
Holborn and St Pancras 63.3%
Kingston and Surbiton 70.1%
Edinburgh South 69.6%
Ynys Mon 67.5%
North Down 60.1%
Glastonbury and Somerton 70.9%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

My Prediction

National 66.6
Clacton 62.9
Richmond and Northallerton 66.6
Rochdale 58.8
Holborn and St Pancras 65
Kingston and Surbiton 74.9
Edinburgh South 75
Ynys Mon 70.5
North Down 57.9
Glastonbury and Somerton 75.7

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Including mine we currently have 4 entries in this competition.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

As I type there is just over 24 hours to get you predictions in for this competition.

Reminder this competition closes at opening of poll, 7am on Thursday 4th July.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jul 3, 2024 5:12:52 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Reminder this competition closes at opening of poll, 7am on Thursday 4th July.

[No Offence Alan]

National 63.0%
Clacton 63.0%
Richmond and Northallerton 63.0%
Rochdale 63.0%
Holborn and St Pancras 63.0%
Kingston and Surbiton 63.0%
Edinburgh South 63.0%
Ynys Mon 63.0%
North Down 63.0%
Glastonbury and Somerton 63.0%

Lazy, Moi !?

[carlton43]

NAT           60.1
CLAC         67.2
RICH          69.3
ROCH        58.4
HOLB         59.5
KINGS        69.6
ED S           65.7
ANG           58.8
N DOWN   52.9
GLAST        70.0

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jul 3, 2024 20:19:11 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jul 3, 2024 5:12:52 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Reminder this competition closes at opening of poll, 7am on Thursday 4th July.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

This competition is now closed, thanks to all who have entered.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

National range 60.1 by Carlton47 66.6 by BDT to a range of 6.5
Clacton range 63 by No Offence Alan 67.2 by Carlton47 a range of 4.2
Richmond and Northallerton range 63 by No Offence Alan 69.3 by Carlton47 a range of 6.3
Rochdale range 57.7 by manchesterman to 63 by No Offence Alan a range of 5.3
Holborn and St Pancras range 57.2 by Tony Otim to 65.7 by Sg1 to a range of 8.5
Kingston and Surbiton range 63 by No Offence Alan 74.9 by BDT to a range of 11.9
Edinburgh South range 63 by No Offence Alan 75 by BDT to a range of 12
Ynys Mon range 58.8 by Carlton47 70.5 by BDT to a range of 11.7
North Down range 52.9 by Carlton47 63 by No Offence Alan a range of 10.1
Glastonbury and Somerton range 63 by No Offence Alan 75.7 by BDT to a range of 12.7

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

General Election 2024 Turnout Prediction Competition Result

Congratulations to the winner of this competition Tony Otim In second place we have carlton43 Finishing off the podiun is No Offence Alan in 3rd

Final Points

Tony Otim 33.5
Carlton43 38
No Offence Alan 40.5
manchesterman 40.9
Sg1 55.8
HDT 64.6

EDIT: I used Sky for the turnout percentages

National 59.9
Clacton 58.4
Richmond and Northallerton 65.7
Rochdale 55.7
Holborn and St Pancras 54.1
Kingston and Surbiton 65.5
Edinburgh South 66.1
Ynys Mon 61.4
North Down 58.6
Glastonbury and Somerton 65.3

Thanks to all who took part in this competition

HDT