General Election 2024 national vote share competition

[Harry Hayfield]

United Kingdom: Labour 35.8%, Conservative 20.5%, Reform UK 16.0%, Liberal Democrats 15.2%, Green 6.4%, Scottish National Party 2.9%
Northern Ireland: Sinn Fein 23.7%, DUP 21.7%, Alliance 18.5%, SDLP 14.4%, UUP 13.5%, TUV 4.6%

[johnloony]

I am old enough to remember when "Others" (including SNP, PC, N.I. parties, and everything except Con / Lab / Lib / SDP) got c.4%

[nyx]

Updating my prediction:

Con 21%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 12%, SNP 2.8%, Green 6%, Reform 16%.

[pericles]

GB vote shares:

Labour-44.4%
Conservative-21.9%
Reform-11.4%
LibDem-10.6%
Green-5.7%

Guessing there's a slight pro-Labour error and they end up closer to the BoJo vote, some of the polls look a bit low.

[Tony Otim]

Lab 39.8
Con 21.5
Reform 14.8
LD 12.7
Grn 5.8
SNP 2.4

[observer]

Jul 3, 2024 9:57:51 GMT Tony Otim said:

Lab 39.8
Con 21.5
Reform 14.8
LD 12.7
Grn 5.8
SNP 2.4

I sense this is about right

[greenman]

Exit Poll Prediction:

Labour 39% to 40%
Conservative 19% to 20%
Reform 16%
Liberal Democrats 11% to 12%
Green 7% to 8% (Includes English and Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish parties)
SNP 3%
Other 3%

[froome]

Labour 39.5
Conservative 19.8
Reform 14.5
Lib Dem 12.8
Green 6.1
SNP 2.4

which leaves Others on 4.9

[nyx]

Result

Labour 33.69
Conservative 23.70
Reform 14.29
Lib Dem 12.22
Green 6.39
SNP 2.52

Will calculate the winner when I have time, sometime in next few days

[Harry Hayfield]

Jul 6, 2024 19:48:16 GMT nyx said:

Result

Labour 33.69
Conservative 23.70
Reform 14.29
Lib Dem 12.22
Green 6.39
SNP 2.52

Will calculate the winner when I have time, sometime in next few days

United Kingdom: Labour 35.8%, (+2.1%), Conservative 20.5% (-3.2%), Reform UK 16.0% (+1.7%), Liberal Democrats 15.2% (+3.0%), Green 6.4% (spot on), Scottish National Party 2.9% (+0.4%)

Total Error: 11.4

[nyx]

Have calculated the results- and Old Fashioned Leftie wins! Well done. I have highlighted the closest prediction for each party in the table.

Name	Conservative	Labour	Lib Dem	SNP	Green	Reform	Total error
Old Fashioned Leftie	23 (-0.7)	38 (+4.31)	14 (+1.78)	2.5 (-0.02)	7 (+0.61)	15 (+0.71)	8.13
nyx	21 (-2.7)	37 (+3.31)	12 (-0.22)	2.8 (+0.28)	6 (-0.39)	16 (+1.71)	8.61
Defenestrated Fipplebox	22.9 (-0.8)	39.9 (+6.21)	11.9 (-0.32)	2.4 (-0.12)	4.9 (-1.49)	14.4 (+0.11)	9.05
Tony Otim	21.5 (-2.2)	39.8 (+6.11)	12.7 (+0.48)	2.4 (-0.12)	5.8 (-0.59)	14.8 (+0.51)	10.01
Harry Hayfield	20.5 (-3.2)	35.8 (+2.11)	15.2 (+2.98)	2.9 (+0.38)	6.4 (+0.01)	16 (+1.71)	10.39
greenhert	22.5 (-1.2)	40.5 (+6.81)	11.4 (-0.82)	2.6 (+0.08)	5.5 (-0.89)	15 (+0.71)	10.51
manchesterman	23.1 (-0.6)	39.9 (+6.21)	11.1 (-1.12)	2.7 (+0.18)	5.5 (-0.89)	15.9 (+1.61)	10.61
froome	19.8 (-3.9)	39.5 (+5.81)	12.8 (+0.58)	2.4 (-0.12)	6.1 (-0.29)	14.5 (+0.21)	10.91
batman	22 (-1.7)	39 (+5.31)	11 (-1.22)	2 (-0.52)	7 (+0.61)	16 (+1.71)	11.07
aslaw	20 (-3.7)	41 (+7.31)	12 (-0.22)	2.5 (-0.02)	5.5 (-0.89)	13 (-1.29)	13.43
xenon	20.3 (-3.4)	40.7 (+7.01)	12.8 (+0.58)	2.6 (+0.08)	5.2 (-1.19)	15.5 (+1.21)	13.47
Sg1	25.6 (+1.9)	39.5 (+5.81)	10.7 (-1.52)	2.9 (+0.38)	3.8 (-2.59)	12.0 (-2.29)	14.49
peterl	19.8 (-3.9)	40.4 (+6.71)	13.2 (+0.98)	2.2 (-0.32)	6.1 (-0.29)	18.3 (+4.01)	16.21
ntyuk1707	19 (-4.7)	41 (+7.31)	11 (-1.22)	2.7 (+0.18)	5 (-1.39)	17 (+2.71)	17.51

The Northern Ireland bonus contest had only three entries, out of which I managed to come out ahead.

Name	DUP	Sinn Fein	Alliance	UUP	SDLP	TUV	Total error
nyx	23 (+0.92)	26 (-1.06)	16 (+0.96)	11 (-1.16)	12 (+0.85)	6 (-0.25)	5.2
Defenestrated Fipplebox	23.4 (+1.32)	24.4 (-2.66)	17 (+1.96)	11.6 (-0.56)	12.6 (+1.45)	6 (-0.25)	8.2
Harry Hayfield	21.7 (-0.38)	23.7 (-3.36)	18.5 (+3.46)	13.5 (+1.34)	14.4 (+3.25)	4.6 (-1.65)	13.44

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Thanks for running this, very happy to finish 3rd.