nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Jun 24, 2024 12:29:30 GMT
Predict each party's share of the vote (UK vote, not GB vote). Format:
Conservative X%
Labour X%
Lib Dem X%
SNP X%
Green (E+W) X%
Reform X%
After the election, I will add up the difference between each entrant's prediction and the final result for each of the six parties, and the smallest total difference wins.
Optional bonus competition: if you like, do the same for the six biggest Northern Ireland parties – DUP, SF, Alliance, UUP, SDLP, TUV – as a percentage of the total vote in Northern Ireland. Contest rules work the same way. This bonus competition will be ranked entirely separately to the main competition.
The numbers obviously don't have to add up to 100% given that in both cases minor parties are also standing.
To start us off– my prediction is Con 17%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 11%, SNP 2.8%, Green 6%, Reform 21%.
And for the bonus Northern Ireland round– DUP 23%, Sinn Fein 26%, Alliance 16%, UUP 11%, SDLP 12%, TUV 6%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 24, 2024 13:20:30 GMT
Predict each party's share of the vote (UK vote, not GB vote). Format: Conservative X% Labour X% Lib Dem X% SNP X% Green (E+W) X% Reform X% After the election, I will add up the difference between each entrant's prediction and the final result for each of the six parties, and the smallest total difference wins. Optional bonus competition: if you like, do the same for the six biggest Northern Ireland parties – DUP, SF, Alliance, UUP, SDLP, TUV – as a percentage of the total vote in Northern Ireland. Contest rules work the same way. This bonus competition will be ranked entirely separately to the main competition. The numbers obviously don't have to add up to 100% given that in both cases minor parties are also standing. To start us off– my prediction is Con 17%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 11%, SNP 2.8%, Green 6%, Reform 21%. And for the bonus Northern Ireland round– DUP 23%, Sinn Fein 26%, Alliance 16%, UUP 11%, SDLP 12%, TUV 6% How many decimals are you working to in calculating the result? |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
Member is Online
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Post by nyx on Jun 24, 2024 14:21:36 GMT
Predict each party's share of the vote (UK vote, not GB vote). Format: Conservative X% Labour X% Lib Dem X% SNP X% Green (E+W) X% Reform X% After the election, I will add up the difference between each entrant's prediction and the final result for each of the six parties, and the smallest total difference wins. Optional bonus competition: if you like, do the same for the six biggest Northern Ireland parties – DUP, SF, Alliance, UUP, SDLP, TUV – as a percentage of the total vote in Northern Ireland. Contest rules work the same way. This bonus competition will be ranked entirely separately to the main competition. The numbers obviously don't have to add up to 100% given that in both cases minor parties are also standing. To start us off– my prediction is Con 17%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 11%, SNP 2.8%, Green 6%, Reform 21%. And for the bonus Northern Ireland round– DUP 23%, Sinn Fein 26%, Alliance 16%, UUP 11%, SDLP 12%, TUV 6% How many decimals are you working to in calculating the result? I will calculate it to two decimal places. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 24, 2024 15:33:19 GMT
Lab 39
Con 27
Ref 13
I can’t be bothered to go to more details than that
Oh, and I predict a turnout of 58%
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Post by greenhert on Jun 24, 2024 17:36:37 GMT
My prediction, taking all significant variables into account and giving each answer to 1 decimal place:
Labour: 40.5%
Conservative: 22.5%
Reform UK 15.0%
Liberal Democrats 11.4%
Green 5.5%
SNP 2.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.7%
Workers Party of Britain 0.7%
SDP 0.6%
Independents and others 0.5%
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Post by batman on Jun 24, 2024 20:53:55 GMT
Conservative 22
Labour 39
Lib Dem 11
SNP 2
Green (E+W) 7
Reform 16
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 25, 2024 15:41:34 GMT
Conservative 23.1%
Labour 39.9%
Lib Dem 11.1%
SNP 2.7%
Green (E+W) 5.5%
Reform 15.9%
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jun 25, 2024 15:46:34 GMT
Predict each party's share of the vote (UK vote, not GB vote). Format: Conservative X% Labour X% Lib Dem X% SNP X% Green (E+W) X% Reform X% After the election, I will add up the difference between each entrant's prediction and the final result for each of the six parties, and the smallest total difference wins. Optional bonus competition: if you like, do the same for the six biggest Northern Ireland parties – DUP, SF, Alliance, UUP, SDLP, TUV – as a percentage of the total vote in Northern Ireland. Contest rules work the same way. This bonus competition will be ranked entirely separately to the main competition. The numbers obviously don't have to add up to 100% given that in both cases minor parties are also standing. To start us off– my prediction is Con 17%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 11%, SNP 2.8%, Green 6%, Reform 21%. And for the bonus Northern Ireland round– DUP 23%, Sinn Fein 26%, Alliance 16%, UUP 11%, SDLP 12%, TUV 6% How many decimals are you working to in calculating the result? 3.1415927 |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 25, 2024 16:32:57 GMT
How many decimals are you working to in calculating the result? 3.1415927 The irony of using a transcendental number to note the number of decimals you are calculating any result to  |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 25, 2024 16:40:08 GMT
How many decimals are you working to in calculating the result? 3.1415927 Politicians like bar charts rather than Pi charts  |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,468 
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Post by peterl on Jun 26, 2024 15:49:20 GMT
Labour 40.4%
Conservative 19.8%
Lib Dem 13.2%
SNP 2.2%
Green (E+W) 6.1%
Reform 18.3%
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 26, 2024 20:52:50 GMT
Labour 39.5%
Conservative 25.6%
Lib Dem 10.7%
SNP 2.9%
Green (E+W) 3.8%
Reform 12.0%
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Post by johnloony on Jun 26, 2024 21:12:09 GMT
Ever since the start of the campaign, I have believed that when it comes to the crunch, the Reform vote will flop down to about 13% (instead of c.17%) and the Conservative vote will firm up at about 27% (instead of c.21%) - mainly because voters will realise that they are supposed to make a serious decision about government, rather than merely moaning or groaning or protesting. And because they will realise that Reform is not a proper party with a substantial structure of membership and organisation, and because Reform can’t have a knocking-up and GOTV operation on polling day.
But now I am beginning to think that maybe:
Reform will indeed flop, as predicted and described above;
but
Conservatives won’t recover and firm up;
and
the Lib Dems might instead be the beneficiaries of the votes shifting, even to the extent of the Lib Dems being the third largest party in terms of share of the vote.
The opinion polls have consistently had Lib Dems on 9%-13% and Reform on 14%-19% … but I wouldn’t be surprised if the final result is something like Lib Dem 15% and Reform 10%.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 28, 2024 9:05:11 GMT
Conservative 22.9% Labour 39.9% Lib Dem 11.9% SNP 2.4% Green (E+W) 4.9% Reform 14.4%
DUP 23.4%, Sinn Fein 24.4%, Alliance 17%, UUP 11.6%, SDLP 12.6%, TUV 6%
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aslaw
Non-Aligned
Posts: 24
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Post by aslaw on Jun 29, 2024 11:30:40 GMT
Conservative 20%
Labour. 41%
LibDem. 12%
SNP. 2.5%
Green. 5.5%
Reform. 13%
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 29, 2024 11:38:10 GMT
Labour 41%
Conservative 19%
Reform 17%
Lib Dem 11%
Green (E+W) 5%
SNP 2.7%
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 426
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Post by xenon on Jun 29, 2024 19:06:19 GMT
Labour Party 40.7%
Conservatives 20.3%
Reform UK 15.5%
Liberal Democrats 12.8%
Green Party 5.2%
SNP 2.6%
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Post by carolus on Jun 30, 2024 0:48:18 GMT
The irony of using a transcendental number to note the number of decimals you are calculating any result to 3.1415927 certainly is not transcendental. It's a root of many polynomials, most obviously 10000000 X - 31415927. π on the other hand...  |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jun 30, 2024 4:24:08 GMT
Labour 38
Conservative 23
LD 14
Reform 15
Green 7
SNP 2.5
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Post by greenhert on Jun 30, 2024 7:52:45 GMT
The irony of using a transcendental number to note the number of decimals you are calculating any result to 3.1415927 certainly is not transcendental. It's a root of many polynomials, most obviously 10000000 X - 31415927. π on the other hand... You clearly were referring to pi with 3.1415927, which is pi to 7 decimal places. |
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