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Post by manchesterman on Jun 28, 2024 10:26:26 GMT
(I may enter this one over the weekend, but it needs quite a bit of time as I have to work out the winner and the %) manchesterman are predictions just full to the nearest whole % or are predictions to the nearest 1 or 2 decimal points allowed? You can put down whatever % figure you like, but it will be rounded up/down to the nearest whole number. It's only being used as a tiebreak anyway in the event of a tie for the most correct constituency predictions. If by some fluke, 2 players are tied on correct predictions and discrepancy in overall percentage errors across the 30 seats then it was meant to be a tie  |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 1, 2024 20:58:09 GMT
***** Reminder that entries for this competition must be in by 10pm on Wednesday - almost exactly 48 hours from now. ***** Hopefully people are hanging fire till the last minute to make their seat predictions in case of 'events'  FWIW I'm planning on posting my predictions later tonight. |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605 
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Post by Ports on Jul 2, 2024 16:59:48 GMT
Aberdeenshire N & Moray E - SNP win by 3%
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine - SNP win by 3%
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock - Lab win by 4%
Dumfries & Galloway - Con win by 2%
Edinburgh SW - Lab win by 5%
Renfrewshire E - Lab win by 7%
Caerfyrddin - Lab win by 5%
Monmouthshire - Lab win by 10%
Montgomery & Glyndwr - Lab win by 2%
Ynys Mon - Lab win by 6%
Aldershot - Lab win by 4%
Ashfield - Lab win by 8%
Bedfordshire Mid - Con win by 4%
Bristol Central - Green win by 5%
Chesham & Amersham - LD win by 10%
Chichester - LD win by 2%
Clacton - Reform win by 17%
Frome & Somerset E - LD win by 2%
Godalming & Ash - LD win by 5%
Leicestershire NW - Lab win by 3%
Nuneaton - Lab win by 7%
Portsmouth N - Lab win by 4%
St Neots & Cambridgeshire Mid - LD win by 1%
Selby - Lab win by 6%
Shropshire N -LD win by 6%
Somerset NE & Hanham - Lab win by 5%
Suffolk Coastal - Con win by 4%
Tatton - Lab win by 0%
Uxbridge & S Ruislip - Lab win by 5%
Wokingham - LD win by 4%
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 2, 2024 17:56:06 GMT
Thanks for the reminder that I forgot to post mine last night!
Aberdeenshire N & Moray E 3% Con
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine 1% Con
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock 1% Lab
Dumfries & Galloway 1% SNP
Edinburgh SW 3% SNP
Renfrewshire E 4% SNP
Caerfyrddin 3% PC
Monmouthshire 8% Lab
Montgomery & Glyndwr 7% Lab
Ynys Mon 1% PC
Aldershot 4% Lab
Ashfield 2% Lab
Bedfordshire Mid 1% Lab
Bristol Central 4% Green
Chesham & Amersham 6% LD
Chichester 1% Con
Clacton 9% Reform
Frome & Somerset E 5% LD
Godalming & Ash 6% LD
Leicestershire NW 3% Lab
Nuneaton 7% Lab
Portsmouth N 3% Lab
St Neots & Cambridgeshire Mid 3% LD
Selby 9% Lab
Shropshire N 3% LD
Somerset NE & Hanham 6% Lab
Suffolk Coastal 1% Lab
Tatton 3% Lab
Uxbridge & S Ruislip 1% Con
Wokingham 5% LD
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 2, 2024 21:02:35 GMT
Aber..N & Moray E CON by 1%
Aber..W & Kinc CON by 4%
Ayr, Carr & Cum SNP by 2%
Dum & Gall CON by 4%
Edin SW SNP by 6%
Renf E CON by 2%
Carm CON by 2%
Mon CON by 1%
Montg... CON by 2%
Ang... LAB by 3%
Ald... CON by 4%
Ashf... REF by 5%
Bed-Mid CON by 4%
Brist C LAB by 6%
Chesh... LD by 13%
Chich... CON by 4%
Clac... REF by 23%
Frome CON by 7%
Godal... CON by 7%
Leic NW CON by 11%
Nun... CON by 8%
Ports N CON by 7%
St Neots CON by 12%
Selby CON by 1%
Shrop N CON by 2%
Som NE CON by 11%
Suff C CON by 9%
Tatton LAB by 2%
Ux... CON by 3%
Woke CON by 4%
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nyx
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Member is Online
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Post by nyx on Jul 2, 2024 22:05:55 GMT
Aberdeenshire N & Moray E
Con win by 3%
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine
Con win by 2%
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
Labour win by 9%
Dumfries & Galloway
Labour win by 3%
Edinburgh SW
Labour win by 9%
Renfrewshire E
Labour win by 1%
Caerfyrddin
Plaid Cymru win by 16%
Monmouthshire
Labour win by 15%
Montgomery & Glyndwr
Labour win by 7%
Ynys Mon
Labour win by 9%
Aldershot
Labour win by 10%
Ashfield
Reform win by 5%
Bedfordshire Mid
Conservative win by 4%
Bristol Central
Green win by 17%
Chesham & Amersham
Liberal Democrat win by 16%
Chichester
Liberal Democrat win by 8%
Clacton
Reform UK win by 21%
Frome & Somerset E
Liberal Democrat win by 8%
Godalming & Ash
Liberal Democrat win by 12%
Leicestershire NW
Labour win by 6%
Nuneaton
Labour win by 12%
Portsmouth N
Labour win by 5%
St Neots & Cambridgeshire Mid
Liberal Democrat win by 8%
Selby
Labour win by 12%
Shropshire N
Liberal Democrat win by 21%
Somerset NE & Hanham
Labour win by 13%
Suffolk Coastal
Liberal Democrat win by 2%
Tatton
Labour win by 5%
Uxbridge & S Ruislip
Labour win by 7%
Wokingham
Liberal Democrat win by 11%
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Jul 2, 2024 22:18:09 GMT
Showing ignorance more than anything else but here goes....
Aberdeenshire N & Moray E - Con win by 5%
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine - SNP win by 2%
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock - Lab win by 11%
Dumfries & Galloway - Con win by 7%
Edinburgh SW - SNP win by 5%
Renfrewshire E - Lab win by 9%
Caerfyrddin - Lab win by 6%
Monmouthshire - Con win by 4%
Montgomery & Glyndwr - Con win by 2%
Ynys Mon - Lab win by 11%
Aldershot - Lab win by 1%
Ashfield - Lab win by 18%
Bedfordshire Mid - Lab win by 1%
Bristol Central - Green win by 9%
Chesham & Amersham - LD win by 5%
Chichester - LD win by 7%
Clacton - Reform win by 4%
Frome & Somerset E - Con win by 7%
Godalming & Ash - LD win by 20%
Leicestershire NW - Lab win by 5%
Nuneaton - Lab win by 9%
Portsmouth N - Lab win by 0%
St Neots & Cambridgeshire Mid - Con win by 1%
Selby - Lab win by 10%
Shropshire N -LD win by 15%
Somerset NE & Hanham - Lab win by 8%
Suffolk Coastal - Con win by 6%
Tatton - Con win by 8%
Uxbridge & S Ruislip - Con win by 2%
Wokingham - LD win by 1%
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 2, 2024 22:22:35 GMT
Aber..N & Moray E CON by 1% Aber..W & Kinc CON by 4% Ayr, Carr & Cum SNP by 2% Dum & Gall CON by 4% Edin SW SNP by 6% Renf E CON by 2% Carm CON by 2% Mon CON by 1% Montg... CON by 2% Ang... LAB by 3% Ald... CON by 4% Ashf... REF by 5% Bed-Mid CON by 4% Brist C LAB by 6% Chesh... LD by 13% Chich... CON by 4% Clac... REF by 23% Frome CON by 7% Godal... CON by 7% Leic NW CON by 11% Nun... CON by 8% Ports N CON by 7% St Neots CON by 12% Selby CON by 1% Shrop N CON by 2% Suff C CON by 9% Tatton LAB by 2% Ux... CON by 3% Woke CON by 4% No prediction for Somerset NE & Hanham.. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 2, 2024 22:30:42 GMT
Aber..N & Moray E CON by 1% Aber..W & Kinc CON by 4% Ayr, Carr & Cum SNP by 2% Dum & Gall CON by 4% Edin SW SNP by 6% Renf E CON by 2% Carm CON by 2% Mon CON by 1% Montg... CON by 2% Ang... LAB by 3% Ald... CON by 4% Ashf... REF by 5% Bed-Mid CON by 4% Brist C LAB by 6% Chesh... LD by 13% Chich... CON by 4% Clac... REF by 23% Frome CON by 7% Godal... CON by 7% Leic NW CON by 11% Nun... CON by 8% Ports N CON by 7% St Neots CON by 12% Selby CON by 1% Shrop N CON by 2% Suff C CON by 9% Tatton LAB by 2% Ux... CON by 3% Woke CON by 4% No prediction for Somerset NE & Hanham.. Thank you for that courtesy. I shall insert one. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jul 2, 2024 23:16:26 GMT
Aberdeenshire North & Moray East - SNP by <1%
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - SNP by 1%
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock - Lab by 1%
Dumfries & Galloway - Con by 8%
Edinburgh SW - Lab by 3% (& ideally SNP not even 2nd)
Renfrewshire East - Lab by 2%
Caerfyrddin - Plaid by 4%
Monmouthshire - Con by 1%
Montgomeryshire & Glyndŵr - LD by <1%
Ynys Môn - Plaid by 6%
Aldershot - Lab by 5%
Ashfield - Reform by <1% (over Zadrozny)
Mid Beds - Con by 8%
Bristol Central - Green by 3%
Chesham & Amersham - LD by 2%
Chichester - LD by 2%
Clacton - Reform by 9%
Frome & Somerset East - Green by <1%
Godalming & Ash - LD by 2%
Leics NW - Lab by 3%
Nuneaton - Lab by 1%
Portsmouth North - Con by 2%
St Neots & Mid Cambs - Con by 4%
Selby - Lab by 11%
Shropshire North - LD by 2%
Somerset NE & Hanham - Lab by 4%
Suffolk Coastal - Con by 1%
Tatton - Con by 5%
Uxbridge & S Ruislip - Con by 1%
Wokingham - Con by 3%
Point of order: "Mid" isn't a compass point or "Central" and therefore always goes before the name of a place. At the 2005 election, Nicholas Soames rightly chided the BBC for referring to his seat as "Sussex Mid".
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 3, 2024 9:37:44 GMT
Foggy I was only asking for % majorities as a tiebreak and so only asked for whole numbers. I can either round up or down (randomly for .5% predictions) or you can correct yourself
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 3, 2024 10:16:02 GMT
Aberdeenshire N & Moray E SNP 5%
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine SNP 1%
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Lab 7%
Dumfries & Galloway Con 4%
Edinburgh SW SNP 2%
Renfrewshire E Lab 6%
Caerfyrddin PC 4%
Monmouthshire Lab 7%
Montgomery & Glyndwr Lab 8%
Ynys Mon PC 3%
Aldershot Lab 7%
Ashfield Lab 4%
Bedfordshire Mid Con 7%
Bristol Central Grn 3%
Chesham & Amersham LD 8%
Chichester LD 4%
Clacton Reform 9%
Frome & Somerset E Lab 3%
Godalming & Ash LD 5%
Leicestershire NW Lab 2%
Nuneaton Lab 6%
Portsmouth N Lab 2%
St Neots & Cambridgeshire Mid Lab 3%
Selby Lab 6%
Shropshire N LD 4%
Somerset NE & Hanham Lab 6%
Suffolk Coastal Con 6%
Tatton Con 3%
Uxbridge & S Ruislip Lab 2%
Wokingham LD 1%
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jul 3, 2024 15:49:31 GMT
Foggy I was only asking for % majorities as a tiebreak and so only asked for whole numbers. I can either round up or down (randomly for .5% predictions) or you can correct yourself Sorry old chap, should've been paying better attention. I've rounded to the nearest whole number where I can, but considering these are predictions for marginals there were a few where my guess is a majority of under 0.5% so I've just changed those to say less than a 1% margin. I'm not budging on "Mid Bedfordshire" as opposed to the erroneous "Bedfordshire Mid" though!  |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 3, 2024 21:39:05 GMT
The intended deadline was originally 10pm tonight, but I'll keep it open for any last minute entries for about another hour.
Will put up some info re the final predictions tomorrow morning.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 4, 2024 12:01:51 GMT
I'm having trouble importing my database onto here for some reason! GoogleDocs is saying it dosent recognise the format, even though its just a basic excel file. robbienicoll can you advise how do you link yours to the forum, please? Worst case scenario, I'll just have to input manually!  |
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 4, 2024 20:55:19 GMT
I'm having trouble importing my database onto here for some reason! GoogleDocs is saying it dosent recognise the format, even though its just a basic excel file. robbienicoll can you advise how do you link yours to the forum, please? Worst case scenario, I'll just have to input manually! Mine are linked directly from my Google Drive. Is it in Google Sheets or are you uploading from somewhere else? |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 4, 2024 20:58:40 GMT
Couldnt solve the GoogleDocs issue, so I'll just do a synopsis in Robbie's inimitable fashion:
9 entrants in all who break down as below:
Abdnshire N & Moray E: 5 for Tory hold (ranging from 1% carlton to 5% ricmk) and 4 for SNP gain (1% Foggy - 5% tonyotim)
Abdnshire W-Kincardine: 3 Tory hold (range: 1% me to 4% carlton) and 6 for SNP gain (1% 3 people - 3% batman & ports)
Ayr Carrick & Cumnock: 7 Lab gain (range: 1% foggy & me to 11% ricmk) and 2 for SNP gain (1% sg1 to 2% carlton)
Dumfries & Galloway: 6 Tory hold (1% sg1 to 8% foggy), 2 Lab gain (1% batman - 2% nyx) and 1 SNP gain (1% me)
Edinburgh SW: 5 SNP hold (2% tonyotim to 6% carlton), 4 Lab gain (3% foggy to 9% nyx)
Renfrewshire E: 2 SNP hold (2% sg1 to 4% me), 6 Lab gain (!% nyx to 9% ricmk) and 1 Con gain (2% carlton)
Caerfyrddin: 1 Con hold (2% carlton), 6 PC gain (3% batman and me to 16% nyx) and 2 Lab gain (5% ports to 6% ricmk)
Monmouthshire: 3 Con hold (1% carlton & foggy to 4% ricmk) and 6 Lab gain (6% sg1 to 15% nyx)
Montgomery & Glyndwr: 2 Con hold (ricmk & carlton both 2%), 6 Lab gain (2% batman and ports to 8% sg1 & tonyotim), 1 LD gain (Foggy)
Ynys Mon: 5 Lab gain (3% carlton to 11% ricmk) and 4 PC gain (1% me to 6% Foggy)
Aldershot: 8 Lab gain (1% ricnk to 10% nyx) and 1 Con hold (Carlton)
Ashfield: 6 Lab gain (2% me to 18% ricmk) and 3 Reform gain (1% Foggy to 5% carlton & nyx)
Bedfordshire Mid: 7 Con hold (1% sg1 to 8% Foggy) and 2 Lab gain (1% me and ricmk)
Bristol Central: 2 Lab hold (6% carlton to 9% sg1) and 7 Green gain (3% tonotim & Foggy to 17% nyx)
Chesham & Amersham: 9 LD gain (2% Foggy to 16% nyx)
Chichester: 3 Con hold (!% batman and me to 4% carlton) and 6 LD gain (2% Foggy & Ports to 8% nyx)
Clacton: 9 Reform gain (4% sg1 and ricmk to 23% carlton)
Frome & Somerset E: 2 Con hold (7% ricmk & carlton), 5 LD gain (1% batman to 10% sg1), 1 Lab (tonyotim) and 1 Green (Foggy)
Godalming & Ash: 1 Con hold (7% carlton) and 8 LD gain (2% Foggy to 20% ricmk)
Leicestershire NW: 2 Con hold (1% sg1 to 11% carlton) and 7 Lab gain (2% tonyotim to 9% batman)
Nuneaton: 1 Con hold (8% carlton) and 8 Lab gain (1% Foggy to 12% nyx)
Portsmouth N: 2 Con hold (2% Foggy to 7% carlton) and 7 Lab gain (0% ricnk to 5% nyx)
St Neots & Cambs Mid: 4 Con hold (1% ricmk to 12% carlton), 4 LD gain (1% sg1 and Ports to 8% nyx) and 1 Lab gain (tonyotim)
Selby: 1 Con hold (carlton) and 8 Lab gain (6% tonyotim & Ports to 15% sg1)
Shropshire N: 1 Con hold (2% carlton) and 8 LD gain (2% sg1 & Foggy to 21% nyx)
Somerset NE & Hanham: 1 Con hold (11% carlton) and 8 Lab gain (2% sg1 to 13% nyx)
Suffolk Coastal: 7 Con hold (1% Foggy to 9% carlton), 1 Lab gain (me) and 1 LD gain (nyx)
Tatton: 4 Con hold (2% sg1 to 8% ricmk) and 5 Lab gain (0% Ports to 5% nyx)
Uxbridge & S Ruislip: 4 Con hold (1% Foggy & me to 3% carlton) and 5 Lab gain (2% tonyotim to 7% nyx)
Wokingham: 2 Con hold (3% Foggy to 4% carlton) and 7 LD gain (1% ricmk & tonyotim to 11% nyx)
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 6, 2024 21:15:06 GMT
The Results are all in, so that means the Results are in! Edit: still a problem with GoogleDocs TL;DR = in a closely fought contest, from the total of 30 seats, the number of correct winner predictions was as follows: 24 nyx 23 Tony Otim and Ports 21 batman 20 manchesterman Sg1 and Foggy 16 ricmk 7 carlton43 Congrats to nyx for an excellent 24/30, only missing out on Ab N & Moray E, Dumfries & G, Ynys Mon, Godalming & Ash, Suffolk Coastal and Tatton. The only constituencies where all predictions were the same (and we were all correct of course) were Clacton and Chesham & Amersham. There were 2 seats where only 1 player made a correct prediction: Carlton in Godalming & Ash, and Yours Truly in Suffolk Coastal. The seats where a player got the correct result AND the correct percentage win (rounded) were: Batman - Ab N & Moray E - SNP win by 2% Ports - Dumfries & G - Con win by 2% Batman and Tony O - Lab win by 7% in Monouthshire sg1 - PC win by 2% in Ynys Mon Ports - LD win by 10% in Chesham & A TonyO - Lab win by 2% in Leics NW Batman and TonyO (again) - Lab win by 2% in Portsmouth N sg1 - Con win by 2% in Tatton. Thanks to everyone for taking part. Let's do it all again in 2029!! |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jul 6, 2024 21:37:28 GMT
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