Constituency prediction competition 2024

[manchesterman]

Firstly, this is intended to run alongside, not in competition with, Defenestrated Fipplebox 's GE prediction competition. Whereas that competition is based on a prediction of the number of seats won by each party, this one focuses on predicting the winner (and % majority) of 30 selected marginal seats.

In making my seat selections for those to be predicted, I've used the following criteria:



...a reasonable spread across the GB nations & regions of England [I've excluded NI seats however, due to their unique status, viz a viz the mainland parties]

...high-profile candidates facing potential defeat

...some of the seats won by opposition parties in recent by-elections.



Listed below are the 30 seats I've initially selected for the competition (along with the rationale for my choices) but if anyone thinks I've missed an obvious seat which could be interesting & closely-contested, please let me know in the thread and which seat it should replace - I'm limiting it to 30 seats to make it manageable for me - and I'll consider any changes to the final 30.



To facilitate this, there will be a 'consultation period' on the thread for suggestions and/or general comments. The competition will then be open for actual predictions wef Thursday 13th June, which allows a 3 week period for predictions to be posted. Similar rules to the other prediction threads on the forum, I will “like” your post to let you know your predictions are valid and have been noted.



Deadline for final entries will be 10pm UK-time on 3rd July.



The winner will be the person who predicts the most correct winners. In the event of a tie, the lowest cumulative discrepancy of majorities predicted in all 30 seats. This is why I'm asking for a percentage majority (no fractions please) for each constituency as well as a prediction of the winning party. [For example, Constituency 1 = Party A to win by 4%]

So here are the 30 initial seats selected. There are 6 Scottish seats, 4 Welsh seats and 20 English seats.

[manchesterman]

Aberdeenshire North & Moray East
This is a new constituency, based on roughly 75% of the old Banff & Buchan and 25% of the old Moray constituencies. Based on the notionals, it is a Conservative marginal seat with the added ingredient of the controversial deselection of current MP David Duguid. With Tory & SNP polling numbers both on the decline, it will be interesting to see who can firm up their core vote the best, if a big increase in Labour share materializes or whether tactical voting by Labour/Lib Dem voters (for either party) proves decisive.

2019 notional result: Con 48.3%, SNP 43.1%, LD 4.4%, Lab 4.2%

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine
Moving south to the other side of the city of Aberdeen, is AW&K which is unchanged following the boundary review. Despite more of a “liberal” heritage than AN&ME, the seat returned a Lib Dem MP in 4 elections from 1997 to 2010 before switching to SNP in 2015 and then Tory since 2017, the drop off in their vote means they are likely out of contention for this election. Labour have little history here and, despite their current commanding position in the national polls, a gain here would be highly unlikely.

2019 result: Con 42.6%, SNP 41.1%, LD 11.7%, Lab 4.6%

Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
Another seat unaffected by boundary changes, but also with a recent record of electing MPs from different parties. Up until 2010 AC&C returned a Labour MP, before also falling to the SNP under their avalanche of 2015, then returning a Tory MP in 2017, before returning to the SNP fold at the last election. The 2 latter elections being marginal wins, making this at face-value a classic 2-horse race. However, can the Labour polling lead coupled with their prior history in the constituency sweep them from 3rd to 1st place?

2019 result: SNP 43.5%, Con 38.5%, Lab 13.4%, LD 4.6%

Dumfries & Galloway
All 3 seats on the Scottish Borders are, to varying degrees, Conservative strongholds. But D&G is the most competitive of them. In many ways it mirrored AC&C in returning a Labour MP until 2010, then SNP in 2015, before switching to the Tories from 2017. Again, at first sight this would seem to be a 2-way fight but Labour’s history in the seat can’t be ignored (they won with a 14% majority in 2010 despite losing power overall).

2019 result: Con 43.8%, SNP 40.8%, Lab 9.4%, LD 6%

Edinburgh South West
Very much a mixed seat demographically, although it was held by the Tories from WW2 right up to the 1997 landslide which saw Tory grandee Sir Malcolm Rifkind concede with a famous dignified speech.
The late Alistair Darling then held it until the SNP yellow-wave blew away dozens of Labour MPs in 2015, falling to Joanna Cherry. Cherry will be standing again, defending a healthy lead over the 2nd placed Tories,
but has cut a controversial figure in recent years and Labour will feel they are competitive this time around, given national polling


2019 notional result: SNP47.6%, Con 24.6%, Lab 14.3%, LD 9.5%, Grn 2.4%, BXP 1.2%, SDP 0.2%



Renfrewshire East
A historically significant seat (previously called Eastwood) , this was the most-Tory seat in Scotland in the 1997 election, but then became something of a marginal and competitive seat for Labour and SNP.
Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy won in 2005 & 10, the SNP gained it in 2015, the Tories regained it in 2017, only to lose It to the SNP again in 2019. The Labour vote dropped by more than 50% in 2019
but this has otherwise been within range for Labour and all 3 parties can make a case for winning, to some degree at least, in 2024.


2019 notional result: SNP 44.9%, Con 35.1%, Lab 12.4%, LD 7.5%



Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen)
The 1st of the 4 Welsh seats has the makings of a classic 3-way marginal. The reduction of Welsh seats from 40 to 32 has meant that many existing seats have been ripped up. This seat consists of roughly 2 parts Carmarthenshire East & Dinefwr and 1 part Carmarthenshire West & South Pembrokeshire. A very rural seat in the largely Welsh-speaking West of Wales, it has attributes of a typical Tory and Plaid Cymru seat, but Labour took a quarter of the vote last time and the current polls suggest their vote should increase substantially this time, making it a genuine 3-horse race.

2019 notional result: Con 39.2%, PC 30.7%, Lab 25.1%, BXP 3.8%, LD 1.3%

Monmouthshire
Sometimes called ‘little England in Wales’, Monmouthshire has more in common with Herefordshire to the east than the valleys of urban South Wales to the west. Although Labour won the seat narrowly in the Blair landslides of 97 and 01, it is a traditional Tory seat and has returned the Welsh Secretary David Davies since 2005. However Labour support never faded to the extent it did in many English seats since 2010 and Labour will be optimistic here, despite a 20%+ lead to overturn from a high Welsh Labour base.

2019 notional result: Con 52.1%, Lab 31.6%, LD 9.6%, Green 2.5%, PC 2.4%, Oth 1.7%

Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr
Like many Welsh seats, the old Montgomery seat was too small in itself to survive unscathed and about half of the old Clwyd South seat was attached to it for 2024. Very rural, it should be strongly Tory but Montgomeryshire was a bastion of liberalism for many decades, having Alex Carlile and Lembit Opik as high-profile Liberal MPs in recent times. However the seat fell to the Tories in 2010 and they strengthened their grip on the seat subsequently. Though the addition of part of Clwyd S (a Lab-Tory marginal) has boosted Labour’s chances of winning the seat for the 1st time, as has national polling.

2019 notional result: Con 53.6%, Lab 24.8%, LD 16.8%, PC 2%, Gwlad 1.4%, BXP 1.4%

Ynys Mon (Anglesey)
Due to its island status, YM is the only unchanged seat for 2024. Another seat with a chequered political history, it returned a Plaid MP in the 87, 92 & 97 elections, before switching to Labour from 2001 right through to the 2017 election, before falling in the substantial Tory win in 2019. Being rural and with high numbers of Welsh speakers make this a natural PC-Tory battle but Labour’s previous successes and current popularity make it a genuine 3-way marginal

2019 result: Con 35.5%, Lab 30.1%, PC 28.5%, BXP 6%

[manchesterman]

Aldershot
Moving to England and starting with Aldershot (home of the British Army). It was created as a seat in 1918 and has elected a Tory MP ever since, including Sir Julian Critchley and Sir Gerald Howarth. Yet surprisingly in the recent local elections, Labour had a series of stunning successes in Rushmoor (the borough containing Aldershot). Can Labour overturn 100+ years of history in this archetypal Tory-town stronghold?

2019 notional result: Con 58.4%, Lab 23.5%, LD 14.4%, Green 3.7%


Ashfield
I don’t think much needs to be said about this seat on this forum. The current incumbent Lee Anderson needs no introduction, elected as a Tory MP having previously been a Labour councillor before defecting to Reform earlier this year. It had returned a Labour MP since its creation in 1974 up to 2017 but falling to the Tories in 2019. The seat is further complicated by the strength of the Ashfield Independents who came 3rd in 2017 and 2nd in 2019. This seat will certainly get a lot of air-time on election night and is one of very few seats where as many as 4 possible winners can’t be discounted!

2019 notional result: Con 39.2%, Ind 26.9%, Lab 25.6%, BXP 5%, LD 2.1%, Grn 1.3%


Bedfordshire Mid
The 1st of the by-election seats in the competition. Again, the 2019 MP – Nadine Dorries – needs no introduction. However she resigned the seat for reasons widely-known and discussed on here and, as a result, Labour had a stunning victory in October 23 with a swing over 20%. But the Lib Dems also had hopes in this election and made a strong showing too. So, in the midst of a general election will the Tory ground-game in the area and the potential splitting of the ‘progressive’ vote bring it back into the Tory fold?

2019 notional result: Con 60.5%, Lab 20.5%, LD 12.5%, Grn 3.9%, Oth 2.6%
2023 by-election result: Lab 34.1%, Con 31.1%, LD 23.1%, Ind 4.6%, Reform 3.7%, Grn 1.8% , Oth 1.7%


Bristol Central
When Thangam Debonnaire won this seat for Labour with over 47,000 votes (despite a Labour trashing nationally), she probably expected an easy ride in 2024. But nothing could be further from the truth. Despite Labour’s large national opinion poll lead, the Greens have performed brilliantly in local elections in Bristol for some years now and they will be focusing much of their firepower on this seat and co-leader Carla Denyer has high hopes of becoming the 2nd Green MP in July.

2019 notional result: Lab 58.5%, Green 26%, Con 14.3%, BXP 1.2%


Chesham & Amersham
In leafy Buckinghamshire, this true-blue Tory seat weighed the Conservative votes rather than counted them. They polled over 30,000 votes in each election from 2010 and popular local MP Cheryl Gillan had been MP for 30 years prior to her death. In the subsequent by-election however, the LD campaigning machine went into overdrive and turned a 29% Conservative lead into a 21% LD win! Amid a huge tactical voting effort, Labour’s share was their lowest ever in a Westminster election but will this be repeated in a general election?

2019 notional result: Con 56.4%, LD 22.4%, Lab 13.9%, Grn 4.8%
2021 by-election: LD 56.7%, Con 35.5%, Grn 3.9%, Lab 1.6%, Reform 1.1% Oth 1.2%


Chichester
With the exception of 1 year (1923), this seat has been represented by a Conservative MP. Current incumbent, Gillian Keegan, is Education Secretary and another senior minister under pressure.
A highly-affluent constituency, the thought of it returning anything other than a Tory MP would have been almost unthinkable, but we live in extraordinary times. Again, 3 parties have a chance here, given a fair wind!

2019 notional result: Con 58.8%, LD 20.3%, Lab 15.4%, Grn 4.2%, Oth 0.7%



Clacton
A safer Tory seat you could hardly imagine, Giles Watling the Tory candidate polled almost 72% in the 2019 general election. But the Tory travails and the return of Nigel Farage to the campaign trail changed all that. This is a classic Reform seat (remember UKIP won the seat in 2015 with Douglas Carswell), replete with economically-deprived but socially conservative voters that lap up the populist message of the Reform Ltd leader, which makes for a fascinating contest on July 4.

2019 notional result: Con 71.9%, Lab 15.6%, LD 6.2%, Grn 2.9%, Oth 3.4%


Frome & Somerset East
This is a new seat based on the eastern half of both the N.E Somerset and the Somerton & Frome seats (see also Somerset NE & Hanham seat). Both were previously fairly safe Tory seats but, for differing reasons, both seats spawned from the review are sure to be hard-fought marginal contests. This area of Somerset is usually a classic Tory-Lib Dem battleground, but the 2023 by-election saw a massive 29% swing to the Lib Dems and a lot may depend on whether the significant Labour support can be persuaded to vote tactically again or whether Labour feel they can actually win the seat themselves in a tight 3-way contest.

2019 notional result: Con 49.3%, LD 23.5%, Lab 21.2%, Grn 6.1%
2023 by-election (Somerton & Frome): LD 54.6%, Con 26.2%, Grn 10.2%, Reform 3.4%, Lab 2.6%, Oth 3%



Godalming & Ash
It isn’t often that the current Chancellor of the Exchequer is worrying about retaining his seat in a general election, but that is certainly the case for Jeremy Hunt this time. This is a new seat based largely on the old SW Surrey seat plus chunks from neighbouring seats. The legacy seat has been held by Hunt since 2005 and before that by Virginia Bottomley since 1983, so has always been in the heartland of stockbroker belt Surrey (it includes Charterhouse) but the Lib Dems have been perennial challengers and are hoping that Tory unpopularity and a dash of tactical voting could swing it for them.

2019 notional result: Con 53.4%, LD 34.1%, Lab 8.9%, Grn 1.6%, Oth 1.9%


Leicestershire North West
As with the Ashfield seat, the incumbent here needs no introduction to the forum. Andrew Bridgen has been the MP since 2010 but now sits as an Independent having been expelled by the Conservatives, joining and then leaving Reclaim in an eventful 2023. Since its formation in 1983 the seat has been won by the governing party, electing Tory David Ashby from 1983-1997, then Labour’s David Taylor 1997-2010, before Bridgen won in 2010 on a 12% swing. Although the majority is now substantial, how well Bridgen’s vote stacks up could determine the final result.

2019 notional result: Con 62.1%, Lab 25.4%, LD 6.9%, Grn 4.7%, Oth 1%


Nuneaton
Often quoted as the seat that signposted the outcome of the 2015 election, Nuneaton is regarded as a bellwether seat nowadays. However from 1935 to 2005 (excepting 1983 & 87) it returned a Labour MP. Although won by the Tories in 2010, the majority was only 2000 and many observers expected Labour to win in 2015, however there was a 3% swing to the Tories and everyone then new Cameron was on course for a majority. Incumbent Marcus Jones is defending a 13000 majority but Labour will be desperate to gain this seat if they are to achieve a healthy majority.

2019 result: Con 60.6%, Lab 31.5%, LD 4.1%, Grn 3.7%


Portsmouth North
Another high profile MP under pressure is Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt. Despite having a majority of almost 16,000 at the last election, given the state of the polls she will be hoping that her personal vote will be sufficient to hold off what is expected to be a strong challenge from Labour. Despite the current majority, it should be borne in mind that Labour won the seat 3 times during the Blair years.

2019 notional result: Con 61.4%, Lab 27%, LD 7.4%, Grn 2.8%, Ind 1.4%


St Neots & Cambridgeshire Mid
A new seat consisting of parts of Huntingdon, Cambs S & Cambs SE. Extrapolating a 2019 result is therefore trickier than usual, but this is a seat which would generally return a Tory MP, however Cambridgeshire has some
significant Lib Dem strength and City of Cambridge is Labour-inclined. Anthony Browne, the current Tory MP for Cambs S, has moved to this seat, considering it a better option for him, but given the polls it's likely to be a tough challenge for him to retain his place in the Commons regardless. His best hope being an evenly split of opposition votes.

2019 notional result: Con 51.3%, LD 26.8%, Lab 18.8%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 2.7%



Selby
When Nigel Adams held this rural Yorkshire seat in 2019 with over 60% of the vote, he probably expected to be (easily) defending it in 2024. However, he was deselected by his party in 2023 and chose to resign and force a by-election. What happened next resulted in Labour’s (at the time) 2nd largest by-election victory since the war. 25 year old Keir Mather ended up with a majority of over 11%, but will the seat revert to type outside of the hype and focus of a by-election?

2019 notional result: Con 58%, Lab 29.8%, LD 6%, YP 3.2%, Grn 3%
2023 by-election: Lab 46%, Con 34.3%, Grn 5.1%, Reform 3.7%, LD 3.3%, Oth 3.5%


Shropshire North
In many ways similar to Selby, Shropshire N was an increasingly safe Tory seat since its formation in 1983. Owen Paterson was forced to resign in 2021 at the height of the Tory sleaze crisis. At the 2019 election Labour were a clear 2nd place and both them and the LibDems harboured hopes of an upset; however the Lib Dem’s capacity to outperform expectations in by-elections came to the fore and Helen Morgan won with the 2nd largest Lib Dem by-election swing since the war. The Labour vote (tactically) collapsed but given their lead in opinion polls, all 3 parties have a case to make for winning here.

2019 notional result: Con 62.7%, Lab 22.1%, LD 10%, Grn 3.2%, Oth 2%
2021 by-election: LD 47.2%, Con 31.6%, Lab 9.7%, Grn 4.6%, Reform 3.8%, Oth 3.1%


Somerset North East & Hanham
This seat was melded together from roughly half of the old Somerset NE seat and half of the now-abolished Kingswood seat. The current incumbent is the infamous, often-dubbed ‘MP for the 19th century’, Jacob Rees Mogg who has been the member (for Somerset NE) since 2010. Labour has always been 2nd here but in 2019 their vote collapsed and the Lib Dem vote surged making it a close-race for 2nd. National opinion polls however suggest this should be a straight Con-Lab battle.

2019 notional result: Con 50.4%, Lab 24.2%, LD 22.1%, Grn 2.5%, Ind 0.8%


Suffolk Coastal
Over on the east coast, the seat of Suffolk Coastal has been rock-solid Tory since its inception in 1983. Even in the heady-Blair days of 1997 the Tories still held on with a 3000 majority. Formerly the seat of burger-munching John Selwyn Gummer, Therese Coffey, the DEFRA minister, has been returned since 2010 but has become the poster girl of the parlous state of our waterways. Despite the huge majority, Labour feel that they can be competitive in this seat in 2024.

2019 notional result: Con 56.5%, Lab 21.4,% LD 15.1%, Grn 4.4%, Oth 2.6%


Tatton
The North-West is predicted to be a near wipeout for the Tories, but I wanted to have at least one seat from the region. Given the polls, only a handful of seats seem even competitive, but I’ve plumped for Tatton because it too has a high-profile female Tory MP – Esther McVey, the minister for ‘common sense’ (I kid you not)! Also Tatton went down in electoral folklore in 1997 when journalist Martin Bell sensationally won the seat against sleaze-ridden Neil Hamilton, as other parties stood down to facilitate Bell as the ‘anti-sleaze’ candidate. Despite that, the Tories regained it in 01 and have held it easily in every other election, bar 97. Can Labour take it now riding their polling momentum?

2019 notional result: Con 57.3%, Lab 22.5%, LD 16.2%, Grn 3.7%, BXP 0.4%


Uxbridge & South Ruislip
As in the North West, London expects a Labour landslide and there are few competitive seats from which to choose. However, I’ve gone for the iconic U&SR seat. It should, demographically, be a true marginal but, in fact, since the war Labour has only won it twice [by 1000 votes in 45, and 800 votes in 66] Even in the 97 Blair landslide, it stayed blue. Also the Tories have won 3 by-elections here [1972, 1997 & 2023 when Labour were reckoned to be a shoo-in]. This seat should, statistically, be the easiest to predict, but Labour need to break their hoodoo in a seat that seems destined to evade them.

2019 notional result: Con 52.6%, Lab 37%, LD 6.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 1.1%
2023 by-election: Con 45.2%, Lab 43.6%, Grn 2.7%, LD 1.9%, Oth 6.7%



Wokingham
A seat which has always returned a Tory MP since its creation in 1974, even in 97 the majority was nearly 10,000. The marmite arch-Brexiteer, Sir John Redwood, having held the seat since 1987, is standing down and it will be interesting to see if this will have a net negative or positive effect on the Tory vote share. Labour have never really been competitive, but the Lib Dems performed strongly here in 2019 managing a swing of over 14% from Redwood. Can they build on the momentum & squeeze Labour votes?

2019 notional result: 55.5%, LD 32.3%, Lab 9.9%, Grn 3.5%, BXP 2.7%, Grn 2.2%

[ricmk]

This looks interesting. My only view on the constituencies chosen is that there are too many which have had by-elections. Do we really need all of Chesham, Mid Beds, Shropshire N, Selby, Uxbridge and Wellingborough?
I'd replace some of these with more interesting prospects such as NE Somerset and Hanham, Chichester, Gloucester, St Neots + Mid Cambs, Mansfield etc.

[manchesterman]

Jun 10, 2024 16:45:17 GMT ricmk said:

This looks interesting. My only view on the constituencies chosen is that there are too many which have had by-elections. Do we really need all of Chesham, Mid Beds, Shropshire N, Selby, Uxbridge and Wellingborough?
I'd replace some of these with more interesting prospects such as NE Somerset and Hanham, Chichester, Gloucester, St Neots + Mid Cambs, Mansfield etc.

I thought the by-elections have their own niche in that, some will return to type and some will be able to maintain the momentum of the by-election win [and which are which is hard to predict].



NES & Hanham IS included. I expect Gloucester to be an easy-ish gain for Labour? I thought as Mansfield was next door to Ashfield, I didnt want to use both and Ashfield has the 4-way factor. i thought Chichester may be a bridge too far, even given the opinion polls. St.Neots was on my shortlist and I would certainly consider it..but which seat to remove?

[carolus]

Can we have a prediction competition for the winner of the prediction competitions?

[manchesterman]

Certainly, feel free to arrange it

[peterl]

Interesting idea and thanks for running this. I would probably have included Bournemouth East - can this seat which has always been Tory really fall to Labour? Quite an interesting battleground.

[manchesterman]

As it's "only" 97th on Labour's target list, I didnt consider that to be likely to be that close 

Also, a general reminder, if you want to propose a seat to be included, you also need to be proposing one to be excluded, as Im not doing more than 30

[Tony Otim]

Having half the Scottish seats being Aberdeenshire Con vs SNP battles is perhaps not that helpful or representative of most of Scotland.

Somewhere like Stirling and Strathallan or East Renfrewshire or Aberdeen South where there's a decent Labour chance as well to make it less predictable.
Plus perhaps somewhere at the end of Labour's target range in the Central Belt, like Livingston which is winnable for them but not a foregone conclusion.

[manchesterman]

Jun 10, 2024 19:36:51 GMT Tony Otim said:

Having half the Scottish seats being Aberdeenshire Con vs SNP battles is perhaps not that helpful or representative of most of Scotland.

Somewhere like Stirling and Strathallan or East Renfrewshire or Aberdeen South where there's a decent Labour chance as well to make it less predictable.
Plus perhaps somewhere at the end of Labour's target range in the Central Belt, like Livingston which is winnable for them but not a foregone conclusion.

A valid point, Tony. I do seem to have over-egged the Con-SNP North east battles.   I did have E.Renfrew on my longlist and, having checked the results again for your suggested seats, I think that is the best option.  Also it's been an interesting seat in the past, from memory, so I'll seriously consider swapping it in for (maybe) Gordon & Buchan?

[manchesterman]

I've taken on board feedback from various esteemed members (thanks for your input) and have made 4 changes to the seats used in the competition.

2 Scottish seats have changed: Edinburgh SW and Renfrewshire East replacing Gordon & Buchan and Paisley & Renf S

2 English seats have changed: Chichester and St Neots & Cambs Mid replacing Glastonbury & Somerton and Wellingborough & Rushden.

Thanks to all who contributed and all who choose to play along. Remember, it's only a bit of fun!

See next post for a 'checklist' which you can 'copy/paste' to enter your predictions in a nice neat format for me Good luck!

[manchesterman]

Aberdeenshire N & Moray E
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
Dumfries & Galloway
Edinburgh SW
Renfrewshire E
Caerfyrddin
Monmouthshire
Montgomery & Glyndwr
Ynys Mon
Aldershot
Ashfield
Bedfordshire Mid
Bristol Central
Chesham & Amersham
Chichester
Clacton
Frome & Somerset E
Godalming & Ash
Leicestershire NW
Nuneaton
Portsmouth N
St Neots & Cambridgeshire Mid
Selby
Shropshire N
Somerset NE & Hanham
Suffolk Coastal
Tatton
Uxbridge & S Ruislip
Wokingham

[Sg1]

Aberdeenshire N & Moray E
Conservatives to win by 3%

Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine
SNP to win by 1%

Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
SNP to win by 1%

Dumfries & Galloway
Conservatives to win by 1%

Edinburgh SW
SNP to win by 3%

Renfrewshire E
SNP to win by 2%

Caerfyrddin
Plaid Cymru to win by 5%

Monmouthshire
Labour to win by 6%

Montgomery & Glyndwr
Labour to win by 8%

Ynys Mon
Plaid Cymru to win by 2%

Aldershot
Labour to win by 2%

Ashfield
Labour to win by 6%

Bedfordshire Mid
Conservatives to win by 1%

Bristol Central
Labour to win by 9%

Chesham & Amersham
Liberal Democrats to win by 4%

Chichester
Liberal Democrats to win by 6%

Clacton
Reform UK to win by 4%

Frome & Somerset E
Liberal Democrats to win by 10%

Godalming & Ash
Liberal Democrats to win by 9%

Leicestershire NW
Conservatives to win by 1%

Nuneaton
Labour to win by 10%

Portsmouth N
Labour to win by 3%

St Neots & Cambridgeshire Mid
Liberal Democrats to win by 1%

Selby
Labour to win by 15%

Shropshire N
Liberal Democrats to win by 2%

Somerset NE & Hanham
Labour to win by 2%

Suffolk Coastal
Conservatives to win by 2%

Tatton
Conservatives to win by 2%

Uxbridge & S Ruislip
Labour to win by 5%

Wokingham
Liberal Democrats to win by 3%

[matureleft]

Jun 26, 2024 21:25:47 GMT Sg1 said:

Aberdeenshire N & Moray E
Conservatives to win by 3%

Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine
SNP to win by 1%

Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
SNP to win by 1%

Dumfries & Galloway
Conservatives to win by 1%

Edinburgh SW
SNP to win by 3%

Renfrewshire E
SNP to win by 2%

Caerfyrddin
Plaid Cymru to win by 5%

Monmouthshire
Labour to win by 6%

Montgomery & Glyndwr
Labour to win by 8%

Ynys Mon
Plaid Cymru to win by 2%

Aldershot
Labour to win by 2%

Ashfield
Labour to win by 6%

Bedfordshire Mid
Conservatives to win by 1%

Bristol Central
Labour to win by 9%

Chesham & Amersham
Liberal Democrats to win by 4%

Chichester
Liberal Democrats to win by 6%

Clacton
Reform UK to win by 4%

Frome & Somerset E
Liberal Democrats to win by 10%

Godalming & Ash
Liberal Democrats to win by 9%

Leicestershire NW
Conservatives to win by 1%

Nuneaton
Labour to win by 10%

Portsmouth N
Labour to win by 3%

St Neots & Cambridgeshire Mid
Liberal Democrats to win by 1%

Selby
Labour to win by 15%

Shropshire N
Liberal Democrats to win by 2%

Somerset NE & Hanham
Labour to win by 2%

Suffolk Coastal
Conservatives to win by 2%

Tatton
Conservatives to win by 2%

Uxbridge & S Ruislip
Labour to win by 5%

Wokingham
Liberal Democrats to win by 3%

Intrigued to see NW Leicestershire among your Conservative holds. Any specific reason? Bridgen appears pretty active and surely must disrupt the Conservative campaign? 

[Sg1]

Jun 26, 2024 21:43:00 GMT matureleft said:

Jun 26, 2024 21:25:47 GMT Sg1 said:

Aberdeenshire N & Moray E
Conservatives to win by 3%

Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine
SNP to win by 1%

Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
SNP to win by 1%

Dumfries & Galloway
Conservatives to win by 1%

Edinburgh SW
SNP to win by 3%

Renfrewshire E
SNP to win by 2%

Caerfyrddin
Plaid Cymru to win by 5%

Monmouthshire
Labour to win by 6%

Montgomery & Glyndwr
Labour to win by 8%

Ynys Mon
Plaid Cymru to win by 2%

Aldershot
Labour to win by 2%

Ashfield
Labour to win by 6%

Bedfordshire Mid
Conservatives to win by 1%

Bristol Central
Labour to win by 9%

Chesham & Amersham
Liberal Democrats to win by 4%

Chichester
Liberal Democrats to win by 6%

Clacton
Reform UK to win by 4%

Frome & Somerset E
Liberal Democrats to win by 10%

Godalming & Ash
Liberal Democrats to win by 9%

Leicestershire NW
Conservatives to win by 1%

Nuneaton
Labour to win by 10%

Portsmouth N
Labour to win by 3%

St Neots & Cambridgeshire Mid
Liberal Democrats to win by 1%

Selby
Labour to win by 15%

Shropshire N
Liberal Democrats to win by 2%

Somerset NE & Hanham
Labour to win by 2%

Suffolk Coastal
Conservatives to win by 2%

Tatton
Conservatives to win by 2%

Uxbridge & S Ruislip
Labour to win by 5%

Wokingham
Liberal Democrats to win by 3%

Intrigued to see NW Leicestershire among your Conservative holds. Any specific reason? Bridgen appears pretty active and surely must disrupt the Conservative campaign? 

The seat has been trending Conservative for some time. The swing is harder to overcome for Labour than similar such rural ex-mining seats nearby.

If relatives who live here are to be believed, Bridgen had his enemies, even amongst voters he ought to appeal to, although I know better than to place too much on anecdotes. Labour don't seem to have been targeting this seat until the past year or so, and without a pro or anti incumbency, I'd wager a dead heat rather than a convincing win for either party.

Also, I think that Bridgen will have a negligible vote and barely impact on the result.

Could well be wrong about all that, guess we'll see in a week

[batman]

Aberdeenshire N & Moray E
SNP to win by 2%

Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine
SNP to win by 3%

Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
Labour to win by 4%

Dumfries & Galloway
Labour to win by 1%

Edinburgh SW
Labour to win by 6%

Renfrewshire E
Labour to win by 2%

Caerfyrddin
Plaid Cymru to win by 3%

Monmouthshire
Labour to win by 7%

Montgomery & Glyndwr
Labour to win by 2%

Ynys Mon
Labour to win by 4%

Aldershot
Labour to win by 3%

Ashfield
Labour to win by 6%

Bedfordshire Mid
Conservatives to win by 7%

Bristol Central
Greens to win by 9%

Chesham & Amersham
Liberal Democrats to win by 11%

Chichester
Conservatives to win by 1%

Clacton
Reform UK to win by 15%

Frome & Somerset E
Liberal Democrats to win by 1%

Godalming & Ash
Liberal Democrats to win by 7%

Leicestershire NW
Labour to win by 9%

Nuneaton
Labour to win by 4%

Portsmouth N
Labour to win by 2%

St Neots & Cambridgeshire Mid
Conservatives to win by 5%

Selby
Labour to win by 14%

Shropshire N
Liberal Democrats to win by 8%

Somerset NE & Hanham
Labour to win by 6%

Suffolk Coastal
Conservatives to win by 5%

Tatton
Labour to win by 2%

Uxbridge & S Ruislip
Labour to win by 6%

Wokingham
Liberal Democrats to win by 7%

[matureleft]

Jun 26, 2024 21:47:40 GMT Sg1 said:

Jun 26, 2024 21:43:00 GMT matureleft said:

Intrigued to see NW Leicestershire among your Conservative holds. Any specific reason? Bridgen appears pretty active and surely must disrupt the Conservative campaign? 

The seat has been trending Conservative for some time. The swing is harder to overcome for Labour than similar such rural ex-mining seats nearby.

If relatives who live here are to be believed, Bridgen had his enemies, even amongst voters he ought to appeal to, although I know better than to place too much on anecdotes. Labour don't seem to have been targeting this seat until the past year or so, and without a pro or anti incumbency, I'd wager a dead heat rather than a convincing win for either party.

Also, I think that Bridgen will have a negligible vote and barely impact on the result.

Could well be wrong about all that, guess we'll see in a week

Fair enough. Bridgen was a difficult man even before he jumped into conspiracy theory territory. And I’m not expecting a big vote for him - it’s more the disruptive effect he’s likely to be having among Tories, added to the Reform element. I note a lot of frontbencher Labour visits and that suggests reasonable confidence. We’ll see.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 10, 2024 17:00:58 GMT carolus said:

Can we have a prediction competition for the winner of the prediction competitions?

I can add up the scores across the competitions, lowest score wins, if people really want this.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

(I may enter this one over the weekend, but it needs quite a bit of time as I have to work out the winner and the %)

manchesterman are predictions just full to the nearest whole % or are predictions to the nearest 1 or 2 decimal points allowed?