2024 European Elections in UK if still in EU

[elinorhelyn]

Do we see similar trends as we're seeing in Europe? This scenario for clarity would be a Remain referendum win.

[aargauer]

Farage would be absolutely walking it.

[The Bishop]

Well it depends on all sorts of variables, given that a Remain vote in 2016 would have been such a major "point of departure" from our current timeline.

If things are still as now with a deeply unpopular Tory party in government since 2010, we might just be seeing our first Labour win in the Euro elections for 30 years.

[noorderling]

Jun 10, 2024 10:34:50 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Do we see similar trends as we're seeing in Europe? This scenario for clarity would be a Remain referendum win.

There’s is not really an European trend, as there is no European polity. The Right has done very well in some countries, but certainly not everywhere. 

[Kristofer Keane]

The big question is what would Farage and UKIP have done if Remain had won? Most likely they would have largely carried on as they did before, and a Farage UKIP would continue to pile up the votes in European elections without making much impact elsewhere. If Farage chose to resign from British politics after a Remain vote and went off to America, UKIP probably would have gone into decline but with enough of a protest vote around perhaps still pick up an MEP in each electoral region. Perhaps the protest vote might have moved on to a more hardline BNP/Britain First-esque option instead though.

Also, in this universe, did Cameron carry on as PM? With no Boris bounce coming, perhaps the party would have held out the 2015 term as long as possible, but then a May 2020 election would have been delayed due to Covid. A Cameron government may have avoided the worst excesses of Partygate though, and perhaps come out of the pandemic looking relatively good in their handling of the pandemic response?

[finsobruce]

Jun 10, 2024 11:35:31 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

The big question is what would Farage and UKIP have done if Remain had won? Most likely they would have largely carried on as they did before, and a Farage UKIP would continue to pile up the votes in European elections without making much impact elsewhere. If Farage chose to resign from British politics after a Remain vote and went off to America, UKIP probably would have gone into decline but with enough of a protest vote around perhaps still pick up an MEP in each electoral region. Perhaps the protest vote might have moved on to a more hardline BNP/Britain First-esque option instead though.

Also, in this universe, did Cameron carry on as PM? With no Boris bounce coming, perhaps the party would have held out the 2015 term as long as possible, but then a May 2020 election would have been delayed due to Covid. A Cameron government may have avoided the worst excesses of Partygate though, and perhaps come out of the pandemic looking relatively good in their handling of the pandemic response?

I think, like the SNP in Scotland, they would have pushed for a second referendum.

[swingometer]

Jun 10, 2024 11:35:31 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

The big question is what would Farage and UKIP have done if Remain had won? Most likely they would have largely carried on as they did before, and a Farage UKIP would continue to pile up the votes in European elections without making much impact elsewhere. If Farage chose to resign from British politics after a Remain vote and went off to America, UKIP probably would have gone into decline but with enough of a protest vote around perhaps still pick up an MEP in each electoral region. Perhaps the protest vote might have moved on to a more hardline BNP/Britain First-esque option instead though.

Also, in this universe, did Cameron carry on as PM? With no Boris bounce coming, perhaps the party would have held out the 2015 term as long as possible, but then a May 2020 election would have been delayed due to Covid. A Cameron government may have avoided the worst excesses of Partygate though, and perhaps come out of the pandemic looking relatively good in their handling of the pandemic response?

What killed it for the Tories, Partygate or the mini budget, had there been an election in the nine months in between, who knows what might have happened, certainly not a Labour majority though

[tomc]

Jun 10, 2024 11:35:31 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

The big question is what would Farage and UKIP have done if Remain had won? Most likely they would have largely carried on as they did before, and a Farage UKIP would continue to pile up the votes in European elections without making much impact elsewhere. If Farage chose to resign from British politics after a Remain vote and went off to America, UKIP probably would have gone into decline but with enough of a protest vote around perhaps still pick up an MEP in each electoral region. Perhaps the protest vote might have moved on to a more hardline BNP/Britain First-esque option instead though.

Also, in this universe, did Cameron carry on as PM? With no Boris bounce coming, perhaps the party would have held out the 2015 term as long as possible, but then a May 2020 election would have been delayed due to Covid. A Cameron government may have avoided the worst excesses of Partygate though, and perhaps come out of the pandemic looking relatively good in their handling of the pandemic response?

There would be no reason for Cameron to resign though I doubt he'd be interested in setting records. Maybe Osborne would have taken over which I see developing in the same way as Brown with the Blair inheritance.

UKIP would not decline, whether or not Farage departed, the drop off in support happened because so many supporters thought the job was done and left. The party still had an MP in 2016 who could have kept the seat as long as he wanted it plus strong organisation in other areas.

If Remains won in 2016 the presumably we'd have been part of all the EU's COVID responses and any apparent or real failings would be leverage for a renewed anti EU campaign.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 15, 2024 19:42:57 GMT tomc said:

Jun 10, 2024 11:35:31 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

The big question is what would Farage and UKIP have done if Remain had won? Most likely they would have largely carried on as they did before, and a Farage UKIP would continue to pile up the votes in European elections without making much impact elsewhere. If Farage chose to resign from British politics after a Remain vote and went off to America, UKIP probably would have gone into decline but with enough of a protest vote around perhaps still pick up an MEP in each electoral region. Perhaps the protest vote might have moved on to a more hardline BNP/Britain First-esque option instead though.

Also, in this universe, did Cameron carry on as PM? With no Boris bounce coming, perhaps the party would have held out the 2015 term as long as possible, but then a May 2020 election would have been delayed due to Covid. A Cameron government may have avoided the worst excesses of Partygate though, and perhaps come out of the pandemic looking relatively good in their handling of the pandemic response?

There would be no reason for Cameron to resign though I doubt he'd be interested in setting records. Maybe Osborne would have taken over which I see developing in the same way as Brown with the Blair inheritance.

UKIP would not decline, whether or not Farage departed, the drop off in support happened because so many supporters thought the job was done and left. The party still had an MP in 2016 who could have kept the seat as long as he wanted it plus strong organisation in other areas.

If Remains won in 2016 the presumably we'd have been part of all the EU's COVID responses and any apparent or real failings would be leverage for a renewed anti EU campaign.

There was no need for Cameron to resign in our reality, unfortunately the man proved himself a historically poor Prime Minister by quiting unnecessarily rather than reaching a good deal with Europe, something he was better placed to do than any of his successors.

[nyx]

2024 European election is probably fairly similar to the 2014 one, won by UKIP. For other events I'd assume Cameron manages to get reelected in the delayed 2020 election and squeezes the UKIP vote thanks to the threat of Corbyn.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Jun 10, 2024 11:40:50 GMT finsobruce said:

Jun 10, 2024 11:35:31 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

The big question is what would Farage and UKIP have done if Remain had won? Most likely they would have largely carried on as they did before, and a Farage UKIP would continue to pile up the votes in European elections without making much impact elsewhere. If Farage chose to resign from British politics after a Remain vote and went off to America, UKIP probably would have gone into decline but with enough of a protest vote around perhaps still pick up an MEP in each electoral region. Perhaps the protest vote might have moved on to a more hardline BNP/Britain First-esque option instead though.

Also, in this universe, did Cameron carry on as PM? With no Boris bounce coming, perhaps the party would have held out the 2015 term as long as possible, but then a May 2020 election would have been delayed due to Covid. A Cameron government may have avoided the worst excesses of Partygate though, and perhaps come out of the pandemic looking relatively good in their handling of the pandemic response?

I think, like the SNP in Scotland, they would have pushed for a second referendum.

And by doing it as the Brexit Party no doubt! 

"We've kept up the pressure for a referendum for decades, we're not going to stop now" 

[finsobruce]

Jun 16, 2024 3:06:04 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Jun 10, 2024 11:40:50 GMT finsobruce said:

I think, like the SNP in Scotland, they would have pushed for a second referendum.

And by doing it as the Brexit Party no doubt! 

"We've kept up the pressure for a referendum for decades, we're not going to stop now" 

Summat like that lad, aye.

[The Bishop]

Jun 16, 2024 0:55:45 GMT nyx said:

2024 European election is probably fairly similar to the 2014 one, won by UKIP. For other events I'd assume Cameron manages to get reelected in the delayed 2020 election and squeezes the UKIP vote thanks to the threat of Corbyn.

Cameron at least hinted he would stand down before 2020 didn't he?

Not impossible that Corbyn voluntarily does so too, especially assuming no post-referendum attempted coup in this scenario.

And to assume 2024 would just be a repeat of 2014 is slightly lazy tbh. By that time UKIP would have lost the novelty they once had, and if the Tories are as unpopular after 14 years in power as they are in our timeline then there's no compelling reason why a Labour party widely seen as ready for government wouldn't clean up.

[Sg1]

Jun 16, 2024 10:13:07 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 16, 2024 0:55:45 GMT nyx said:

2024 European election is probably fairly similar to the 2014 one, won by UKIP. For other events I'd assume Cameron manages to get reelected in the delayed 2020 election and squeezes the UKIP vote thanks to the threat of Corbyn.

Cameron at least hinted he would stand down before 2020 didn't he?

Not impossible that Corbyn voluntarily does so too, especially assuming no post-referendum attempted coup in this scenario.

And to assume 2024 would just be a repeat of 2014 is slightly lazy tbh. By that time UKIP would have lost the novelty they once had, and if the Tories are as unpopular after 14 years in power as they are in our timeline then there's no compelling reason why a Labour party widely seen as ready for government wouldn't clean up.

I think that a Cameron led Conservative party heading into a 2021 general election would have won, especially with Corbyn still as leader. What happens after that is difficult to quantify. He would not have pursued a Trussesque mini budget, Starmer might still be labour leader. Perhaps by 2024 they'd still be in the lead owing to a time for change feeling, but closer to a projected hung parliament.

[stb12]

Cameron confirmed during the 2015 campaign that he wouldn’t seek another term as PM, albeit you never know if circumstances may have seen his mind be changed