Local Council by-elections 27th June 2024

[phil156]

Sadly no figures up from Hackney Council

[Deleted]

Come on Hackney Council - hurry up with the numbers so we can go to bed. Don't they know that we have a prediction competition here on the Vote UK Forum?

[manchesterman]

Jun 27, 2024 22:09:49 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

SOUTH TYNESIDE Primrose

HAMILTON, Joan (Independent) 762
BRYDON, Kevin (Labour) 543
SEAGO, Darius (Green) 102

Ind 54.2%
Lab 38.6%
Grn 7.2%

[manchesterman]

Jun 27, 2024 22:14:02 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

CUMBERLAND Harraby North

McDERMOTT, Justin Robert (Labour) 455
CURRIE, Rob (Conservative) 164
WILLS, Sarah Joyce (Liberal Democrat) 70
CONNER, Peri (Green) 62

 Lab 60.6%
 Con 21.8%
 LD 9.3%
 Grn 8.3%

[manchesterman]

Jun 27, 2024 22:53:06 GMT @weld said:

Come on Hackney Council - hurry up with the numbers so we can go to bed. Don't they know that we have a prediction competition here on the Vote UK Forum?

Going to bed???  I'm staying up for the Prez debate 

[Deleted]

Jun 27, 2024 22:59:51 GMT manchesterman said:

Jun 27, 2024 22:53:06 GMT @weld said:

Come on Hackney Council - hurry up with the numbers so we can go to bed. Don't they know that we have a prediction competition here on the Vote UK Forum?

Going to bed???  I'm staying up for the Prez debate 

I was writing in jest. I am working and waiting for the debate too. 

[phil156]

Jun 27, 2024 23:00:27 GMT @weld said:

Jun 27, 2024 22:59:51 GMT manchesterman said:

Going to bed???  I'm staying up for the Prez debate 

I was writing in jest. I am working and waiting for the debate too. 

   
   Think I skip that till tomorrow at least you can work out the ups and downs of the share of the vote in todays by-elections 

    Goodnight I wonder if Biden will fall of the stage? 

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Hackney - Hoxton West ward by-election

HO, Cheuk Ting Green Party 238
JAISIN, Farhan Conservative and Unionist Party 154
LUCAS, Benjamin Alexander (commonly known as LUCAS, Ben) Labour Party 880 Elected

PAYNE, Geoffrey Gavin John Liberal Democrats 103

Link to webpage with result

[Deleted]

Hoxton West (changes from 2022)

Labour 64% (+11)
Green 17% (+2)
Conservative 11% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)

Greens up a bit and retake second by virtue of being the best of the rest but this isn't much to write home about for them. Well done Labour on a more solid hold than the recent De Beauvoir by-elections and the mayoral contest in November. Labour will rule the roost in Hoxton for the foreseeable future. 

[The Bishop]

Jun 27, 2024 23:25:16 GMT phil156 said:

Goodnight I wonder if Biden will fall of the stage? 

He may as well have done.

[greenman]

Actually the lead Labour candidate obtained 73% in 2022, so surely Labour are down? As is Cheuk Ho who obtained 20.1%. Conservatives drop from 21.1% and Liberal Democrats from 17%.

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2024 11:59:10 GMT greenman said:

Actually the lead Labour candidate obtained 73% in 2022, so surely Labour are down? As is Cheuk Ho who obtained 20.1%. Conservatives drop from 21.1% and Liberal Democrats from 17%.

I'm sorry I was going off Andrew Teale's 'Local Elections Archive Project', which is, in my opinion, the gold standard for such things. 

[lackeroftalent]

Jun 28, 2024 11:59:10 GMT greenman said:

Actually the lead Labour candidate obtained 73% in 2022, so surely Labour are down? As is Cheuk Ho who obtained 20.1%. Conservatives drop from 21.1% and Liberal Democrats from 17%.

The most usual way of calculating vote share in multi-member FPTP elections is the top vote method. This takes the top vote recieved by each party and calulates share just using those numbers.

In this instance the 2022 result would be presented as:

Lab 53.4%
Con 15.3%
Grn 15.2%
LD 12.4%
TUSC 3.7%

[The Bishop]

Jun 28, 2024 11:59:10 GMT greenman said:

Actually the lead Labour candidate obtained 73% in 2022, so surely Labour are down? As is Cheuk Ho who obtained 20.1%. Conservatives drop from 21.1% and Liberal Democrats from 17%.

Well those figures add up to well over 100%

[Tony Otim]

Jun 28, 2024 12:42:56 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 28, 2024 11:59:10 GMT greenman said:

Actually the lead Labour candidate obtained 73% in 2022, so surely Labour are down? As is Cheuk Ho who obtained 20.1%. Conservatives drop from 21.1% and Liberal Democrats from 17%.

Well those figures add up to well over 100%

I suspect their taken from wikipedia where they tend to measure each candidates vote as a percentage of total votes cast, so in most cases will add up to well over 100% - in a 3 member ward could theoretically add up to 300%. I'm not sure they're the most helpful figures for comparison...

[Deleted]

It's rubbish for the Greens however you slice it. I thought, given how well they do it not demographically dissimilar De Beauvoir ward now, they might crack 30%.

[Tony Otim]

It's a result that suggests that, in the middle of a General Election campaign in a non-target ward, not much effort was being put in. It's a non-story, however you try to spin it.

[andrewp]

An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.

Up to 28th June, there have now been 19 ordinary by elections since 2nd May 2024.

The Conservatives have defended 7- Held 5 and lost 2 to Labour ( retention rate 71% ) and have gained 1

Labour have defended 6 held 6- (retention rate 100%) and have gained 2

The Lib Dem’s have defended 3, held 3 ( retention rate 100%)

There have been 3 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 2 were won by another Independent and 1 was gained by the Conservatives.

Overall totals and net changes

Con 6 (-1)
Lab 8 (+2)
LD 3 (=)
Ind 2 (-1)

[greenman]

Actually I thought the Green vote count was a pretty accurate number given that YouGov MRP has Green on 18% in Hackney North & Stoke Newington and Labour on 66% and in Hackney South & Shoreditch on 15% and Labour on 72%.

[The Bishop]

Paging jamesdoyle for his FINAL SCORES OF THIS PARLIAMENT