Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 12, 2024 20:49:06 GMT
NORTH AYRSHIRE UA; Kilwinning (Con died)
GIBSON, Ian Charles (Scottish Family Party)
GIBSON, Sheila (SNP)
HUME, Mary (Labour)
KIRKWOOD, Ruby (Liberal Democrat)
LAWLER, Chris (Conservative)
2022: Lab 1714, 842; SNP 1225, 714; Con 867; LD 191
Sheila Gibson (SNP) and Ruby Kirkwood (LD) were the unsuccessful candidates here last time.
Current Council: SNP 12; Con 9; Lab 9; Ind 2; 1 vacancy
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Post by batman on Apr 12, 2024 20:57:36 GMT
Not presumably the former Liverpool full-back standing for the Tories
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Post by evergreenadam on Apr 13, 2024 9:03:57 GMT
Presumably not looking good for a Tory defence in this one, bit like Inverness South this week.
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 13, 2024 9:46:52 GMT
Not presumably the former Liverpool full-back standing for the Tories "a former footballer who enjoyed much of Liverpool's success of the mid 1960s to early 1970s" acc'd to wikipedia. So he found most of that enjoyable? Who did he play for himself? |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 13, 2024 10:26:55 GMT
Presumably not looking good for a Tory defence in this one, bit like Inverness South this week. I think it would be a major shock if this wasn't a comfortable Labour gain |
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Post by phil156 on May 8, 2024 11:14:38 GMT
This one counts on Friday morning
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 9, 2024 6:53:23 GMT
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on May 9, 2024 9:14:56 GMT
One question from the preview:
If the MSP is Kenneth Gibson, married to MP Patricia Gibson, the SNP candidate is Sheila Gibson, and the Scottish Family Party candidate is Ian Gibson - is this Scotland's answer to rural Norfolk?
Just a coincidence to have so many prominent activists with that surname all in the same place?
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dizz
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Post by dizz on May 9, 2024 22:15:34 GMT
Looking forward to what - should be - a tight contest.  |
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Post by andrewteale on May 10, 2024 8:26:33 GMT
One question from the preview: If the MSP is Kenneth Gibson, married to MP Patricia Gibson, the SNP candidate is Sheila Gibson, and the Scottish Family Party candidate is Ian Gibson - is this Scotland's answer to rural Norfolk? Just a coincidence to have so many prominent activists with that surname all in the same place? I did wonder whether there were more family relationships involved but found no evidence either way. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on May 10, 2024 9:18:06 GMT
Looking forward to what - should be - a tight contest. And that is how you do expectations management. The only tight part of the contest might be whether Labour win on 1st preferences or require transfers... or did you mean tight between the SNP and Conservatives for second? |
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Post by robbienicoll on May 10, 2024 9:29:20 GMT
Labour gain.
Lab - 2171 (54.3%)
SNP - 916 (22.9%)
Cons - 619 (15.5%)
LD - 154 (3.9%)
ScotFam - 136 (3.4%)
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Clark
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Post by Clark on May 10, 2024 9:34:18 GMT
10.2% swing SNP > LAB from 2022.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 10, 2024 9:40:00 GMT
Lab +8.3%
SNP -12%
Con -0.1%
LD -0.5%
SFP new
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dizz
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Post by dizz on May 10, 2024 10:24:57 GMT
Labour gain. Lab - 2171 (54.3%) SNP - 916 (22.9%) Cons - 619 (15.5%) LD - 154 (3.9%) ScotFam - 136 (3.4%) In the all out elections, 2 definite Lab seats & one SNP one. If Lab stood a third candidate they would have a shot at a 3rd seat but would need near perfect transfer coordination & friendly LD transfers. I guess the one disappointment in the result is the SNP beating the tories. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 10, 2024 10:25:05 GMT
I think the most surprising part of that result is how well the SFP did... it's all relative, but that must be one of their best ever results.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 10, 2024 10:26:41 GMT
No sign of any Swinney bounce yet.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 10, 2024 10:28:24 GMT
Labour gain. Lab - 2171 (54.3%) SNP - 916 (22.9%) Cons - 619 (15.5%) LD - 154 (3.9%) ScotFam - 136 (3.4%) In the all out elections, 2 definite Lab seats & one SNP one. If Lab stood a third candidate they would have a shot at a 3rd seat but would need near perfect transfer coordination & friendly LD transfers. I guess the one disappointment in the result is the SNP beating the tories. I would guess the SFP vote would break for the Tories, so might come down to the SNP surplus, which under normal circumstances would favour Labour... |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 10, 2024 10:51:45 GMT
I think the most surprising part of that result is how well the SFP did... it's all relative, but that must be one of their best ever results. I note the absence of a Green candidate (as was also the case in 2022) That may have a bit to do with it, as despite their seeming incompatibility the Green vote can still be something of a "NOTA" one outside their stronger areas. |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on May 10, 2024 10:59:24 GMT
No sign of any Swinney bounce yet. I don't think there will be one |
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