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Post by swingometer on Apr 9, 2024 10:25:16 GMT
3rd May 1979: Birmingham Northfield - Con gain from Lab
Raymond Carter’s 10,500 majority was overturned to a Tory one of 200 for Jocelyn Cadbury who sadly took his own life in 1982. The October 1974 majority was only a few hundred less than that of the outgoing prime minister Jim Callaghan! The 10.2% swing would have seen Maggie Thatcher romp home with a 100 seat majority.
On another note, I just can’t see David Owen losing his seat, anyone know the specifics of the Birmingham result and why it happened?
2nd May 1997 - Harrow West - Lab gain from Con
I know many of you will say Enfield Southgate, but to clutch at straws, Robert Hughes was a minister! His 17,000 majority was overturned into a Labour one of 1800, and its unsurprisingly stayed with the Labour Party ever since. Demographics aside, you can see why it was a Tory seat.
Or South West Bedfordshire - Con hold
David Madel wouldn’t have dreamed of losing this seat even in the dying days of the Major government, however for reasons I’d like to understand he suffered a 16% swing against him, a 21,000 majority been slashed to 132.
Other marginal holds for the Tories that year were Billericay, Teresa Gorman undoubtedly surviving due to her Eurosceoticism and the absence of a Referendum Party candidate, and incidentally who knows what the result would’ve been in Braintree and Kettering had Mr Major given us a vote on Maastricht.
Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Craig Tracey and others you have been warned!
Sorry for going off on a tangent!
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,648
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 9, 2024 11:54:04 GMT
In 1997 there was an anti-Gorman "loyalist Tory" candidate at Billericay who took 6% of the vote.
In 1979 there was a biggish swing to the Tories generally in the West Midlands, partly this was the pro-Labour "Powell effect" at the 1974 GEs unwinding - but the area had (and still has) large numbers of the sort of skilled workers (C2s in the market research jargon) who moved markedly to the Tories across the country in that election.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 9, 2024 13:21:11 GMT
...Sorry for going off on a tangent! Don't apologise! Going off on a tangent is one of the basic features of this forum. One of the places to be where I was, was at the declaration of Croydon Central in 2005 at 7:05am on Friday morning after three recounts. One of the other places to be was in the Kremlin on 22nd February 1985, where the temperature was minus 22 degrees Celsius. It's the coldest I've ever been in. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Apr 28, 2024 16:52:02 GMT
3rd May 1979: Birmingham Northfield - Con gain from Lab Raymond Carter’s 10,500 majority was overturned to a Tory one of 200 for Jocelyn Cadbury who sadly took his own life in 1982. The October 1974 majority was only a few hundred less than that of the outgoing prime minister Jim Callaghan! The 10.2% swing would have seen Maggie Thatcher romp home with a 100 seat majority. On another note, I just can’t see David Owen losing his seat, anyone know the specifics of the Birmingham result and why it happened? 2nd May 1997 - Harrow West - Lab gain from Con I know many of you will say Enfield Southgate, but to clutch at straws, Robert Hughes was a minister! His 17,000 majority was overturned into a Labour one of 1800, and its unsurprisingly stayed with the Labour Party ever since. Demographics aside, you can see why it was a Tory seat. Or South West Bedfordshire - Con hold David Madel wouldn’t have dreamed of losing this seat even in the dying days of the Major government, however for reasons I’d like to understand he suffered a 16% swing against him, a 21,000 majority been slashed to 132. Other marginal holds for the Tories that year were Billericay, Teresa Gorman undoubtedly surviving due to her Eurosceoticism and the absence of a Referendum Party candidate, and incidentally who knows what the result would’ve been in Braintree and Kettering had Mr Major given us a vote on Maastricht. Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Craig Tracey and others you have been warned! Sorry for going off on a tangent! For those of you not aware, Robert Hughes is still active in politics as a councillor on both Guildford and Surrey Council democracy.guildford.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=589On the Northfield result, I think the Cadbury name was probably a big advantage for the Conservatives given the number of local residents employed by Cadburys at that time and the whole Bournville back story. That combined with the fact that it was a constituency filled with white van man type voters who warmed to Thatcher. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 28, 2024 17:09:21 GMT
The place to be in 1997 was the place where I was, which was in my living room with large quantities of cannabis, diet coke, coffee, twiglets and smarties and in the company of a girlfriend who was sufficiently interested in politics to not be insanely demanding that my focus should be on something other than the election results but also sufficiently uninterested to stfu and go to bed at a judicious hour.
As it happens the Harrow West result did resonate with me more than Enfield Southgate, mainly because its an area I have much closer connections to, but also I had discerned from Portillo's demeanor early on the election night that he was in trouble and I was aware that Labour had come close to carrying the constituency in the 1994 locals (which was not the case in Harrow West, where the Lib Dems were still very strong locally).
I was using Ceefax to look at detailed constituency results, and saw the result for Harrow West before it had flashed up on the TV screen. I assured said gf that it was a mistake and that would be the result for Harrow East - about what I would have expected - a modest Labour lead. Then the page cycled round to the Harrow East result..
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Post by stb12 on Apr 28, 2024 17:29:49 GMT
The place to be in 1997 was the place where I was, which was in my living room with large quantities of cannabis, diet coke, coffee, twiglets and smarties and in the company of a girlfriend who was sufficiently interested in politics to not be insanely demanding that my focus should be on something other than the election results but also sufficiently uninterested to stfu and go to bed at a judicious hour.As it happens the Harrow West result did resonate with me more than Enfield Southgate, mainly because its an area I have much closer connections to, but also I had discerned from Portillo's demeanor early on the election night that he was in trouble and I was aware that Labour had come close to carrying the constituency in the 1994 locals (which was not the case in Harrow West, where the Lib Dems were still very strong locally). I was using Ceefax to look at detailed constituency results, and saw the result for Harrow West before it had flashed up on the TV screen. I assured said gf that it was a mistake and that would be the result for Harrow East - about what I would have expected - a modest Labour lead. Then the page cycled round to the Harrow East result.. Sounds like marriage material! |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 28, 2024 17:34:16 GMT
The place to be in 1997 was the place where I was, which was in my living room with large quantities of cannabis, diet coke, coffee, twiglets and smarties and in the company of a girlfriend who was sufficiently interested in politics to not be insanely demanding that my focus should be on something other than the election results but also sufficiently uninterested to stfu and go to bed at a judicious hour. As it happens the Harrow West result did resonate with me more than Enfield Southgate, mainly because its an area I have much closer connections to, but also I had discerned from Portillo's demeanor early on the election night that he was in trouble and I was aware that Labour had come close to carrying the constituency in the 1994 locals (which was not the case in Harrow West, where the Lib Dems were still very strong locally). I was using Ceefax to look at detailed constituency results, and saw the result for Harrow West before it had flashed up on the TV screen. I assured said gf that it was a mistake and that would be the result for Harrow East - about what I would have expected - a modest Labour lead. Then the page cycled round to the Harrow East result.. Who needs rollercoasters when you have election nights? |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 28, 2024 17:35:03 GMT
The place to be in 1997 was the place where I was, which was in my living room with large quantities of cannabis, diet coke, coffee, twiglets and smarties and in the company of a girlfriend who was sufficiently interested in politics to not be insanely demanding that my focus should be on something other than the election results but also sufficiently uninterested to stfu and go to bed at a judicious hour.As it happens the Harrow West result did resonate with me more than Enfield Southgate, mainly because its an area I have much closer connections to, but also I had discerned from Portillo's demeanor early on the election night that he was in trouble and I was aware that Labour had come close to carrying the constituency in the 1994 locals (which was not the case in Harrow West, where the Lib Dems were still very strong locally). I was using Ceefax to look at detailed constituency results, and saw the result for Harrow West before it had flashed up on the TV screen. I assured said gf that it was a mistake and that would be the result for Harrow East - about what I would have expected - a modest Labour lead. Then the page cycled round to the Harrow East result.. Sounds like marriage material! Took the words out of my mouth, she’s a keeper |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 28, 2024 19:52:12 GMT
I’ll shut up after I promise, but do candidates know the results before they’re declared?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 28, 2024 20:20:50 GMT
I’ll shut up after I promise, but do candidates know the results before they’re declared? Almost always (and if not, their agent will). The RO will first check the figures with the agents and candidates to ensure any of them have a chance to request a recount, or have spotted an error. |
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 364
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Post by mrtoad on Apr 29, 2024 12:27:18 GMT
The counts in 2010 in Hampstead & Kilburn and Westminster North both sounded at the time like exciting places to be, particularly if you were a Labour supporter in search of consolation. I guess the place to be for a Conservative that year was probably Cannock Chase, and for a Lib Dem maybe Chippenham.
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Post by swingometer on Apr 29, 2024 17:19:47 GMT
The counts in 2010 in Hampstead & Kilburn and Westminster North both sounded at the time like exciting places to be, particularly if you were a Labour supporter in search of consolation. I guess the place to be for a Conservative that year was probably Cannock Chase, and for a Lib Dem maybe Chippenham. Bolton West was won by a majority of 92, wonder what that Tory candidate is doing nowadays 🤣 |
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