Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 16, 2024 10:03:40 GMT
Bedford has been a major centre of its sub-region since before the Norman conquest and was an important town in medieval times (Bedford school dates to the 16th Century) and latterly an industrial centre with interests such as brewing and engineering. The town has continued to grow since the war and still does with new estates being built both within and without the town, but it has now been dwarfed by its neighbours – first its fellow Bedfordshire town of Luton and more recently Milton Keynes (and to an extent Northampton) even suffering the indignity of bearing an MK postcode.
As befits a town of ancient lineage, Bedford has a long Parliamentary history, having been represented continuously since 1295. It was a borough constituency from then until 1918 when it expanded to include its large rural hinterland and became a county seat.
That Bedford division was generally safely Conservative, after 1922 when they had seen off the Liberals, who had been strong in both the town and county of Bedford (Samuel Whitbread of the brewing family was a Liberal MP for Bedford for most of the latter half of the 19th Century). Labour did win though in their landslide years of 1945 and 1966, on both occasions by three-figure margins.
In 1983 the constituency was rather needlessly renamed ‘North Bedfordshire’, reflecting the renaming of the local council a few years earlier, though the boundary changes were not major that year (Kempston was moved into Mid Bedfordshire and a couple of rural wards added). This ostensibly ended nearly 700 years of Bedford’s independent representation, but it was to all intents and purposes the same seat. North Bedfordshire was safely Conservative during its brief existence, being represented throughout by New Zealander Sir Trevor Skeet who had first regained Bedford from Labour in 1970. This was as much a reflection of the Conservative dominance nationally in that period as it was of any particularly favourable boundaries.
In 1997 the situation was transformed in every respect as Bedfordshire gained a sixth seat and Bedford reappeared as a borough constituency, losing all the rural terrain and regaining Kempston to become a compact, entirely urban constituency. The notional Conservative majority in 1992 was less than half what it had been in North Bedfordshire – down from five figures and 20% to less than 5,000 and 9%. Trevor Skeet retired that year, and it was inevitable that Labour would gain the ‘new’ seat which they did comfortably in 1997. Patrick Hall continued to hold the seat easily throughout the Blair years – a sharp reduction of the majority in 2005 was primarily due to a rise in the Lib Dem vote rather than that of the Conservative candidate Richard Fuller.
In the first rematch in 2010 Richard Fuller did gain the seat, though the margin was not large at 1,353, it was the larger than it has been for any party since. Patrick Hall had another crack in 2015, cutting the Conservative majority to just over a thousand as the Lib Dem vote evaporated to the benefit of both main parties. Then in 2017, despite increasing his share to over 45%, Richard Fuller lost the seat to Labour’s Mohammad Yasin by 789 votes – one of several seats of this type lost to the ‘Corbyn surge’. Perhaps it should have been regained in 2019 along with several other seats which had followed such a trajectory (Peterborough and Ipswich for example in this region) but Labour held on with a majority of just 145.
Boundary changes ahead of the next election increase the notional majority to just over 1,000, although these are minor and only involve realignment with new ward boundaries – essentially a couple of peripheral housing estates are exchanged with North East/North Bedfordshire. This is still therefore essentially, on paper, a closely fought marginal, though the reality of the next election is that the Conservatives are not going to pose any threat to a seat Labour won in 2019.
Socially and politically, Bedford is quite starkly divided on geographical lines. The Conservatives currently have no councillors at all within the constituency and have not had since 2019, but the Lib Dems are dominant locally in the middle-class wards in the North and East of the town. Newnham ward along the river Ouse to the East of the town centre is one of the few wards the Conservatives have been able to win in recent decades. De Parys, just North of the town centre is an old middle-class area and Brickhill and Putnoe wards further out are comprised of more modern, post-war owner occupied housing. All these wards have similar demographic and political characteristics. All have between 35% and 40% in professional or managerial occupations and around 20% in routine or semi-routine occupations. All have between 35% and 40% graduates. All are heavily owner-occupied, except for De Parys which with its older housing has a larger amount of privately rented housing.
All these wards are solidly Lib Dem at the local level but must have voted Conservative in most recent general elections.
The one exception to this geographical pattern is the ward of Goldington on the North Eastern edge of the town. This is essentially a council estate ward with still almost a third of housing socially rented in 2021. It also has the largest Black population in Bedford – close to 10% in 2021, outnumbering the Asian population (which is larger in every other ward). Goldington is also held by the Lib Dems locally, but it is a marginal ward which Labour often win and which they must carry in general elections.
Bedford’s black population is a sizeable 6.5% which (notwithstanding a concentration in Goldington) is spread fairly evenly throughout the constituency. The Asian population is both larger (around 16%) and more concentrated, most notably in Queen’s Park ward in the West of the town, which is 50% Asian and 45% Muslim. Unsurprisingly, Queens Park is a Labour stronghold - it returned Mohammad Yasin to the local council for a decade before his promotion to MP. There are smaller but still notable concentrations in Cauldwell in working class South Bedford and in neighbouring Kingsbrook and in the technically separate town of Kempston. Cauldwell, where 35% work in routine and semi-routine occupations is another long-term Labour stronghold and while the Lib Dems are competitive locally in the demographically similar ward of Kingsbrook next door, that ward must also deliver a heavy Labour vote in general elections.
Overall, the non-White proportion of the population in this constituency was close to 30% in 2021 which has made a major contribution to Labour’s renewed competitiveness. Additionally, there is a large ‘White Other’ population, approaching 15% which includes relatively recent arrivals from Eastern Europe but more unusually a large Italian origin population. Migrants came originally from Southern Italy in the years immediately after WW2, attracted by work in the nearby brickfields, and established one of the largest UK Italian communities outside London. These Italians, now third and fourth generation are also spread all over the town but most in evidence in the Central and Southern wards. It is not clear if the Italian community vote as a bloc now, if indeed they ever did – the Black and Asian communities largely do.
There are a couple of other wards in Bedford itself which will have played their part in Labour’s recent victories but have a bit more nuance than Cauldwell, Kingsbrook and Queens Park. Castle covers the town centre and has demographics typical of the central areas of large towns. It has a high proportion of graduates but a relatively low proportion of professional and managerial workers and a high proportion of routine workers. A plurality of housing is privately rented. The Conservatives elected a councillor in Castle as recently as 2015 but that was largely due to the split in the Left-wing vote as the Greens were beginning to emerge as contenders. The Greens won both seats in 2019 and in 2023 with new ward boundaries, won Castle & Newnham very easily and the new single member Greyfriars ward, covering the West of the town centre, more marginally over Labour.
Harpur ward to the North West of the town centre has similar dynamics, containing a mix of some old established middle class areas and more downmarket neighbourhoods. Like Castle it has both a relatively high proportion of graduates and of working-class residents, reflecting the divided nature of the ward. The Conservatives used to be very competitive in Harpur but it appears to have developed into a safe Labour ward over the last decade or so.
Around a fifth of the population of this constituency are in Kempston, a nominally separate town but which is functionally a suburb of Bedford which, being on the South West side of the town, shares in the demographic and political character of those areas. Overall, the figures for ethnicity and housing tenure are very similar between Bedford and Kempston although interestingly Kempston has a larger proportion of Sikhs than Muslims which contrasts with Bedford where Muslims are vastly more numerous.
Kempston is also slightly more working class overall than Bedford and has markedly fewer graduates.
Kempston was historically marginal between Labour and Conservatives (the Lib Dems are very weak there) but Labour has established a clear dominance in recent years and now hold all the council seats here (the 8 seats they hold in Kempston compare with only 6 in Bedford itself against 10 Lib Dems and 3 Greens) most of them very safely – they won over 80% of the vote in Kempston South at the most recent local elections, which cannot entirely be explained by the demographics, and over 60% in the North and West wards.
The apparent trending of Kempston away from the Conservatives mirrors the situation in Bedford itself, the still growing non-white population of both towns likely to compound the trend which along with the probable national swing leaves little doubt about the outcome here at the next election.
This seat may have produced close results at each of its last five elections, but a close result should not be anticipated at the next one. It remains to be seen if Bedford will then follow the trajectory of Luton and some other Southern towns in becoming the basis of a long-term safe Labour seat. I wouldn’t bet against it.
As befits a town of ancient lineage, Bedford has a long Parliamentary history, having been represented continuously since 1295. It was a borough constituency from then until 1918 when it expanded to include its large rural hinterland and became a county seat.
That Bedford division was generally safely Conservative, after 1922 when they had seen off the Liberals, who had been strong in both the town and county of Bedford (Samuel Whitbread of the brewing family was a Liberal MP for Bedford for most of the latter half of the 19th Century). Labour did win though in their landslide years of 1945 and 1966, on both occasions by three-figure margins.
In 1983 the constituency was rather needlessly renamed ‘North Bedfordshire’, reflecting the renaming of the local council a few years earlier, though the boundary changes were not major that year (Kempston was moved into Mid Bedfordshire and a couple of rural wards added). This ostensibly ended nearly 700 years of Bedford’s independent representation, but it was to all intents and purposes the same seat. North Bedfordshire was safely Conservative during its brief existence, being represented throughout by New Zealander Sir Trevor Skeet who had first regained Bedford from Labour in 1970. This was as much a reflection of the Conservative dominance nationally in that period as it was of any particularly favourable boundaries.
In 1997 the situation was transformed in every respect as Bedfordshire gained a sixth seat and Bedford reappeared as a borough constituency, losing all the rural terrain and regaining Kempston to become a compact, entirely urban constituency. The notional Conservative majority in 1992 was less than half what it had been in North Bedfordshire – down from five figures and 20% to less than 5,000 and 9%. Trevor Skeet retired that year, and it was inevitable that Labour would gain the ‘new’ seat which they did comfortably in 1997. Patrick Hall continued to hold the seat easily throughout the Blair years – a sharp reduction of the majority in 2005 was primarily due to a rise in the Lib Dem vote rather than that of the Conservative candidate Richard Fuller.
In the first rematch in 2010 Richard Fuller did gain the seat, though the margin was not large at 1,353, it was the larger than it has been for any party since. Patrick Hall had another crack in 2015, cutting the Conservative majority to just over a thousand as the Lib Dem vote evaporated to the benefit of both main parties. Then in 2017, despite increasing his share to over 45%, Richard Fuller lost the seat to Labour’s Mohammad Yasin by 789 votes – one of several seats of this type lost to the ‘Corbyn surge’. Perhaps it should have been regained in 2019 along with several other seats which had followed such a trajectory (Peterborough and Ipswich for example in this region) but Labour held on with a majority of just 145.
Boundary changes ahead of the next election increase the notional majority to just over 1,000, although these are minor and only involve realignment with new ward boundaries – essentially a couple of peripheral housing estates are exchanged with North East/North Bedfordshire. This is still therefore essentially, on paper, a closely fought marginal, though the reality of the next election is that the Conservatives are not going to pose any threat to a seat Labour won in 2019.
Socially and politically, Bedford is quite starkly divided on geographical lines. The Conservatives currently have no councillors at all within the constituency and have not had since 2019, but the Lib Dems are dominant locally in the middle-class wards in the North and East of the town. Newnham ward along the river Ouse to the East of the town centre is one of the few wards the Conservatives have been able to win in recent decades. De Parys, just North of the town centre is an old middle-class area and Brickhill and Putnoe wards further out are comprised of more modern, post-war owner occupied housing. All these wards have similar demographic and political characteristics. All have between 35% and 40% in professional or managerial occupations and around 20% in routine or semi-routine occupations. All have between 35% and 40% graduates. All are heavily owner-occupied, except for De Parys which with its older housing has a larger amount of privately rented housing.
All these wards are solidly Lib Dem at the local level but must have voted Conservative in most recent general elections.
The one exception to this geographical pattern is the ward of Goldington on the North Eastern edge of the town. This is essentially a council estate ward with still almost a third of housing socially rented in 2021. It also has the largest Black population in Bedford – close to 10% in 2021, outnumbering the Asian population (which is larger in every other ward). Goldington is also held by the Lib Dems locally, but it is a marginal ward which Labour often win and which they must carry in general elections.
Bedford’s black population is a sizeable 6.5% which (notwithstanding a concentration in Goldington) is spread fairly evenly throughout the constituency. The Asian population is both larger (around 16%) and more concentrated, most notably in Queen’s Park ward in the West of the town, which is 50% Asian and 45% Muslim. Unsurprisingly, Queens Park is a Labour stronghold - it returned Mohammad Yasin to the local council for a decade before his promotion to MP. There are smaller but still notable concentrations in Cauldwell in working class South Bedford and in neighbouring Kingsbrook and in the technically separate town of Kempston. Cauldwell, where 35% work in routine and semi-routine occupations is another long-term Labour stronghold and while the Lib Dems are competitive locally in the demographically similar ward of Kingsbrook next door, that ward must also deliver a heavy Labour vote in general elections.
Overall, the non-White proportion of the population in this constituency was close to 30% in 2021 which has made a major contribution to Labour’s renewed competitiveness. Additionally, there is a large ‘White Other’ population, approaching 15% which includes relatively recent arrivals from Eastern Europe but more unusually a large Italian origin population. Migrants came originally from Southern Italy in the years immediately after WW2, attracted by work in the nearby brickfields, and established one of the largest UK Italian communities outside London. These Italians, now third and fourth generation are also spread all over the town but most in evidence in the Central and Southern wards. It is not clear if the Italian community vote as a bloc now, if indeed they ever did – the Black and Asian communities largely do.
There are a couple of other wards in Bedford itself which will have played their part in Labour’s recent victories but have a bit more nuance than Cauldwell, Kingsbrook and Queens Park. Castle covers the town centre and has demographics typical of the central areas of large towns. It has a high proportion of graduates but a relatively low proportion of professional and managerial workers and a high proportion of routine workers. A plurality of housing is privately rented. The Conservatives elected a councillor in Castle as recently as 2015 but that was largely due to the split in the Left-wing vote as the Greens were beginning to emerge as contenders. The Greens won both seats in 2019 and in 2023 with new ward boundaries, won Castle & Newnham very easily and the new single member Greyfriars ward, covering the West of the town centre, more marginally over Labour.
Harpur ward to the North West of the town centre has similar dynamics, containing a mix of some old established middle class areas and more downmarket neighbourhoods. Like Castle it has both a relatively high proportion of graduates and of working-class residents, reflecting the divided nature of the ward. The Conservatives used to be very competitive in Harpur but it appears to have developed into a safe Labour ward over the last decade or so.
Around a fifth of the population of this constituency are in Kempston, a nominally separate town but which is functionally a suburb of Bedford which, being on the South West side of the town, shares in the demographic and political character of those areas. Overall, the figures for ethnicity and housing tenure are very similar between Bedford and Kempston although interestingly Kempston has a larger proportion of Sikhs than Muslims which contrasts with Bedford where Muslims are vastly more numerous.
Kempston is also slightly more working class overall than Bedford and has markedly fewer graduates.
Kempston was historically marginal between Labour and Conservatives (the Lib Dems are very weak there) but Labour has established a clear dominance in recent years and now hold all the council seats here (the 8 seats they hold in Kempston compare with only 6 in Bedford itself against 10 Lib Dems and 3 Greens) most of them very safely – they won over 80% of the vote in Kempston South at the most recent local elections, which cannot entirely be explained by the demographics, and over 60% in the North and West wards.
The apparent trending of Kempston away from the Conservatives mirrors the situation in Bedford itself, the still growing non-white population of both towns likely to compound the trend which along with the probable national swing leaves little doubt about the outcome here at the next election.
This seat may have produced close results at each of its last five elections, but a close result should not be anticipated at the next one. It remains to be seen if Bedford will then follow the trajectory of Luton and some other Southern towns in becoming the basis of a long-term safe Labour seat. I wouldn’t bet against it.
