Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Mar 16, 2024 9:07:37 GMT
YL, Pete Whitehead, and 5 more like this
Post by bungle on Mar 16, 2024 9:07:37 GMT
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland is an ugly name for a constituency, redeemed solely by the relative ease of identifying its location. This seat nestles in the Teesside/Cleveland part of the historic North Riding of Yorkshire. The south Middlesbrough element is a mix of deprived ex-council estates at its closest point to Middlesbrough and then a series of suburban estates and original growth villages which continue to grow. The Cleveland element comprises of historic towns such as Guisborough, dramatic moorland and coastline but also rural deprivation in isolated villages which were products of the 19th century Cleveland ironstone mining boom. It is a fair cocktail of demographic and housing types that has made this a marginal seat ever since its effective foundation in 1983.
Why effective foundation? 1983 saw substantial boundary changes in these parts which created a constituency that was almost identical to the current Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. The short-lived 1974 creation of Cleveland and Whitby CC was dismembered and the Cleveland voters were paired with electors from the rapidly expanding Middlesbrough suburbs situated south of the A174 Parkway arterial road, in places such as Coulby Newham and Hemlington. The new constituency was called Langbaurgh, which referred to the 1974 district of the same name, which in turn referenced an old wapentake covering a similar area. The fact It was unpronounceable by many was one factor in its demise as a moniker by 1997.
Langbaurgh was always marginal and reflected the prevailing political direction by electing a Conservative MP in 1983 and 1987 by majorities of 6,000 and 2,000 respectively. When the sitting MP Richard Holt, a northerner partial to unhealthy food (cf. Geoffrey Dickens and the ‘Currie Club’) died of a heart attack in 1991, the resulting by-election was a 'must win' for Labour. Dr Ashok Kumar and Labour did indeed prevail but this was only on a small swing of 3.5% for such a keenly fought by-election. Some suggested this may have had a racial factor in a heavily white seat, but nonetheless this early indicator of Conservative recovery post Mrs Thatcher's defenestration proved an accurate indicator for the 1992 GE. In that contest the Conservative by-election loser, Michael Bates, successfully turned the tables and recovered the seat with a majority of 1,500.
A third rematch between Kumar and Bates took place in 1997 and under the new and extant constituency name: this time Kumar won by over 10,000. He successfully nursed his majority over the next two elections, avoiding the prevailing swing in 2005 when he kept it to a healthy 8,000. Sadly, Kumar died shortly before the 2010 General Election and, at short notice, Labour selected his former constituency researcher Tom Blenkinsop as candidate. It was a decent enough result for Labour to hang on with a majority of 1,700. Hailing from the south Middlesbrough part of the seat, he was a no-nonsense member of the trade unionist right tradition within the PLP. Against the trend he secured a positive swing in 2015, which partially reflects he was a good fit for this seat (compared to say Vera Baird in Redcar) but it more likely reflects the limited appeal of Cameron conservatism.
After 2015 it all unravelled. Blenkinsop’s uncompromising approach with his left-wing critics inevitably caused tensions with the rise of Corbyn and he refused to fight the 2017 election, citing that to do so while Corbyn was leader would be wrong. It was enough to tip the balance and Labour’s precarious hold on this seat finally came to end when Simon Clarke, a solicitor who grew up in the constituency, won for the Conservatives by 1,000 votes. In 2019 this was an area absolutely ripe for further Tory advance at the expense of Labour – the 2016 Brexit vote here was particularly strong and Johnsonian Conservatism of the 'levelling up' type was tailor made as it promised Brexit and largesse, whilst Corbyn’s perceived weakness on issues like national security (quite a few families here have deep armed forces connections) further weakened traditional Labour support. Clarke romped home on a swing of 11% and a majority of 11,000.
It is notable that the types of voters where Labour has enhanced or entrenched its support in recent years are largely absent from this constituency - ethnic minorities, students, middle-class public-sector types or even just graduates. There are similarities with its neighbour Redcar (lost in 2019) and Hartlepool across the estuary (spectacularly lost by Labour in the 2021 by-election). MS & EC is more working class than average and is an overwhelmingly white constituency compared to both regional and national averages. It is also noticeably older with a median age of 45 compared to 40 nationally; 22% of voters are over 65+. The levels of people with no educational qualifications is above average; similarly unemployment levels outrun the regional and national average. Once upon a time all of this would indicate Labour strength but this vote is now much more fluid rather than anchored in partisan habits.
Local election results here offer limited help in terms of parliamentary voting trends as there are numerous independents who stand across both the Middlesbrough and Redcar & Cleveland wards which make up this constituency. This has been compounded by the ever-lively mayoralty in Middlesbrough which has been shifting old allegiances at a local level since the days of Ray Mallon. There is also a lot of split ticket voting where personalities count within party slates. Some strong campaigning saw some of the naturally Labour areas of the constituency closest to urban Middlesbrough fall to Independents in 2023 such as Ladgate ward. Coulby Newham and Hemlington have been generally more Labour than not but in recent years the Conservatives had made great strides in the former (including a couple of by-election successes). Nunthorpe is a pleasant village now expanded with plenty of private housing which happily votes Independent or Tory. In the 2000s the Liberal Democrats did manage to capitalise on some of the ‘not Labour’ votes in some of the wards in this southern of end of Middlesbrough but this hasn’t survived their brush with national government.
Outside the Middlesbrough conurbation the focal point to the constituency is the historic town of Guisborough to the south east (population 17,000 in the civil parish). With its ruined priory and large high street it could easily part of a handsome and prosperous Home Counties seat – but poke underneath and you can see from the shopping experience that there isn’t quite the wealth here to sustain the usual array of fancy artisan bakers and clothes shops. The amount of private housing estates in Guisborough has substantially increased from the 1970s and the town itself is split into 3 wards. Two of these will be Tory at a national level - Hutton and Belmont. Guisborough ward itself is much more marginal reflecting its composition is influenced by the old artisan terraced houses in the centre of the town which are largely lower quality rental lets.
Ironstone mining casts a long shadow in the eastern part of the constituency. It is what made Middlesbrough in the 19th century and gave the area its industrial heritage. Yet where the mines – and miners -were actually situated were small villages within the Cleveland Hills. Places with bucolic names like Lingdale are in fact very obviously ex-pit villages with similar characteristics to places in County Durham or South Yorkshire. There is still mining in the area at Boulby, although this is for alum/potash rather than ironstone. Skelton, Brotton and Loftus all made it to small town size off the back of mining growth but today what employment there is isn’t substantial or highly paid. Voting patterns here used to be strong for Labour but this has been unravelling for a while but with some signs of recovery in 2023. The remaining east Cleveland villages easily merge into the North York Moors landscape where their natural conservative instincts are well represented by ageing Independents.
There are some boundary changes as a result of the latest review. Redcar BC was underpowered with only 66,000 electors so the seaside town of Saltburn is transferred from MS & EC this time. It is a delightful Victorian idea of how a seaside town should be with wide views across the estuary. Typically it has voted Conservative nationally but this trend isn’t as striking as it once was – there is a small but noticeable ‘metropolitan’ and artistic element who now enjoy this town. The impact on the notional result is a reduction in the Tory majority of around 1,500. There are also some minor adjustments on the northern border with Middlesbrough and Thornaby East BC to reflect ward boundary changes.
2024 will be fascinating year for understanding the underlying psephological trends in this area, in contrast to the way the local borough elections merely confuse the picture. The populist Tory Mayor of Tees Valley is up for re-election in May and then later this year the General Election. Simon Clarke is standing again for the Conservatives. He has packed a lot into his 7 years in the Commons with posts such as Minister for Regional Growth, Chief Secretary to the Treasury and a short stint as Levelling Up Secretary under Liz Truss, plus an added bauble of a knighthood to reflect his achievements! His recent calls for a Tory leadership change haven’t gone down well – but maybe, just like his predecessor Tom Blenkinsop, the role of an MP here is to be the canary in the ironstone mine? Luke Myer, a local councillor and education policy research fellow who grew up in Brotton, will compete for Labour. This will no doubt be a lively and fascinating contest which is likely to restore the marginal traditions of the constituency. Will the absence of the Brexit factor, the rise of Reform and the struggle to show anything meaningful on Levelling Up in time for the election devastate the Tories? Or will the gentle unwinding of habitual Labour voters and the increase in more affluent voters in the new housing areas get Clarke over the line? If it is the former, Clarke might well be off to make up for lost time in earning his £400k; if the latter, it will indicate a clear trend that Labour will need to reflect upon even more.
