stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:43:14 GMT
Strangford
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Post by markgoodair on May 23, 2024 20:19:29 GMT
Michelle Guy has been selected as the Alliance party candidate.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 23, 2024 20:55:43 GMT
Councillor for Castlereagh South (which is not in the constituency.)
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 7, 2024 22:38:17 GMT
Alexandra Braidner (Green)
Gareth Burns (Ind)
Garreth Falls (Ind)
Michelle Guy (Alliance)
Barry Hetherington (Con)
Ron McDowell (TUV)
Will Polland (SDLP)
Noel Sands (SF)
Jim Shannon (DUP)
Richard Smart (UUP)
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Post by irish observer on Jun 18, 2024 13:42:17 GMT
Shannon will retain his seat.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 1, 2024 23:06:13 GMT
Given the large Unionist preponderance in this seat, the APNI brilliantly encouraged transfers to take 2 of 5 seats at the Stormont elections, with only 24.08% of FPV. Michelle Guy is unlikely to do as well as Kellie Armstrong.
All that recorded, Jim Shannon is safe home here.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 1, 2024 23:31:04 GMT
Given the large Unionist preponderance in this seat, the APNI brilliantly encouraged transfers to take 2 of 5 seats at the Stormont elections, with only 24.08% of FPV. Michelle Guy is unlikely to do as well as Kellie Armstrong. All that recorded, Jim Shannon is safe home here. And he can continue to be Parliament’s most regular contributor |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 2, 2024 7:09:47 GMT
Given the large Unionist preponderance in this seat, the APNI brilliantly encouraged transfers to take 2 of 5 seats at the Stormont elections, with only 24.08% of FPV. Michelle Guy is unlikely to do as well as Kellie Armstrong. All that recorded, Jim Shannon is safe home here. I'm not predicting that he loses, but I'm not sure that he can be considered safe. The boundary changes are not very helpful to him, at least if Alliance can persuade people who have voted SDLP in the past to vote for them tactically, and the notional DUP majority is in fact smaller than the one in Lagan Valley. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 3, 2024 3:02:54 GMT
Given the large Unionist preponderance in this seat, the APNI brilliantly encouraged transfers to take 2 of 5 seats at the Stormont elections, with only 24.08% of FPV. Michelle Guy is unlikely to do as well as Kellie Armstrong. All that recorded, Jim Shannon is safe home here. I'm not predicting that he loses, but I'm not sure that he can be considered safe. The boundary changes are not very helpful to him, at least if Alliance can persuade people who have voted SDLP in the past to vote for them tactically, and the notional DUP majority is in fact smaller than the one in Lagan Valley. Circumstances are significantly different in Lagan Valley than Strangford though, I'm not aware of any particular controversy affecting Jim Shannon any time soon. |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 3, 2024 13:01:04 GMT
I'm not predicting that he loses, but I'm not sure that he can be considered safe. The boundary changes are not very helpful to him, at least if Alliance can persuade people who have voted SDLP in the past to vote for them tactically, and the notional DUP majority is in fact smaller than the one in Lagan Valley. Circumstances are significantly different in Lagan Valley than Strangford though, I'm not aware of any particular controversy affecting Jim Shannon any time soon. Indeed, but if the DUP are doing badly generally (and there is some suggestion that they might be) then this seat is close enough that it not really what I'd call safe, though I do have them holding it. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 3, 2024 13:54:04 GMT
Circumstances are significantly different in Lagan Valley than Strangford though, I'm not aware of any particular controversy affecting Jim Shannon any time soon. Indeed, but if the DUP are doing badly generally (and there is some suggestion that they might be) then this seat is close enough that it not really what I'd call safe, though I do have them holding it. I'd suggest that they might be unpopular, but people coalition around them anyway because of the Irish sea border issue. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 3, 2024 14:05:10 GMT
Certainly if Shannon is losing here then I don’t think the DUP being down to 1 or 2 seats is out of the question as it would indicate their vote splintering very badly
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Post by irish observer on Jul 3, 2024 17:15:20 GMT
Circumstances are significantly different in Lagan Valley than Strangford though, I'm not aware of any particular controversy affecting Jim Shannon any time soon. Indeed, but if the DUP are doing badly generally (and there is some suggestion that they might be) then this seat is close enough that it not really what I'd call safe, though I do have them holding it. YL makes a good point here and it is possible that if there was a real Alliance surge that Strangford could also fall. If the UUP vote is cannibalised together with a Nationalist vote centred in the Portaferry area of the Peninsula DEA who will not countenance voting DUP whatever. There is a possibility of building an East Belfast style coalition here for Alliance given that in effect SDLP have no real chance of ever winning an MLA seat here ever. Remember that Kieran McCarthy used also represent The Peninsula too. If Shannon holds it will be by 1500 or so. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 3, 2024 17:31:44 GMT
Indeed, but if the DUP are doing badly generally (and there is some suggestion that they might be) then this seat is close enough that it not really what I'd call safe, though I do have them holding it. YL makes a good point here and it is possible that if there was a real Alliance surge that Strangford could also fall. If the UUP vote is cannibalised together with a Nationalist vote centred in the Portaferry area of the Peninsula DEA who will not countenance voting DUP whatever. There is a possibility of building an East Belfast style coalition here for Alliance given that in effect SDLP have no real chance of ever winning an MLA seat here ever. Remember that Kieran McCarthy used also represent The Peninsula too. If Shannon holds it will be by 1500 or so. True, although I'm not quite convinced Alliance can completely cannibalise the UUP vote to the extent that they need to. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 3, 2024 17:53:20 GMT
Indeed, but if the DUP are doing badly generally (and there is some suggestion that they might be) then this seat is close enough that it not really what I'd call safe, though I do have them holding it. YL makes a good point here and it is possible that if there was a real Alliance surge that Strangford could also fall. If the UUP vote is cannibalised together with a Nationalist vote centred in the Portaferry area of the Peninsula DEA who will not countenance voting DUP whatever. There is a possibility of building an East Belfast style coalition here for Alliance given that in effect SDLP have no real chance of ever winning an MLA seat here ever. Remember that Kieran McCarthy used also represent The Peninsula too. If Shannon holds it will be by 1500 or so. Jim Shannon as far as I can tell is a pretty active and well liked local MP, and has never been that controversial or offensive (even if you dislike the DUP platform overall). So would there really be able to be that big a move against him? |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 3, 2024 18:03:39 GMT
The result last time certainly would put it mathematically more in play but given there aren't glaring issues (unlike Lagan Valley) and Shannon is not so objectionable one wonders how much of the possible swing has 'already happened'?
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swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
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Post by swanarcadian on Jul 20, 2024 17:37:23 GMT
There’s a bit of an in joke in the Commons about the fact Shannon is always there and speaks at every opportunity, so much so that Lindsay Hoyle made reference to him at his pitch for the Speaker election, something like in his time there has been “Four prime ministers, two monarchs and one Jim Shannon.”
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stb12
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Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Jul 20, 2024 17:47:40 GMT
There’s a bit of an in joke in the Commons about the fact Shannon is always there and speaks at every opportunity, so much so that Lindsay Hoyle made reference to him at his pitch for the Speaker election, something like in his time there has been “Four prime ministers, two monarchs and one Jim Shannon.” Indeed, even with adjournment debates when there’s usually hardly anyone else there he hangs around and intervenes to add something. Seems to be quite popular around the House for things like that |
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