stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 19, 2024 10:28:32 GMT
Eoin Millar actually looks like Ed from The Inbetweeners. Maskey has SF safest seat in Ulster. And he’s not even in the country! |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 19, 2024 10:33:53 GMT
Eoin Millar actually looks like Ed from The Inbetweeners. Maskey has SF safest seat in Ulster. And he’s not even in the country! He's doing something far more constructive for his future I'd say! |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 19, 2024 10:36:16 GMT
And he’s not even in the country! He's doing something far more constructive for his future I'd say! For a no hope seat that’s no doubt true, although maybe not the best look for the party itself all the same |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 19, 2024 10:38:13 GMT
A couple of thousand, max.
It's not a problem.
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Post by therealriga on Jun 20, 2024 12:15:43 GMT
Irish Catholics are probably more pro-Palestine than the average Arab-Israeli. My mother, to the chagrin of me and my brother (who works for an Israeli company), was a PBP member at one point and is rabid on the subject of Gaza, almost getting to the point where I phone her less and less as she goes off on a rant about it without me ever mentioning it, while I don't argue and wait for an excuse to change the subject. It is that demographic that PBP are going for, not to win the Westminster seat, but to hold their assembly seat and solitary council seat (after losing 2 out of 3 council seats in Belfast last year, they're clearly vulnerable.) There's also a micro contest going on on the Unionist side. The boundary changes mean there is now a Unionist assembly seat there. DUP are currently far ahead of TUV and will be looking to defend that margin. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 20, 2024 12:34:06 GMT
Irish Catholics are probably more pro-Palestine than the average Arab-Israeli. My mother, to the chagrin of me and my brother (who works for an Israeli company), was a PBP member at one point and is rabid on the subject of Gaza, almost getting to the point where I phone her less and less as she goes off on a rant about it without me ever mentioning it, while I don't argue and wait for an excuse to change the subject. It is that demographic that PBP are going for, not to win the Westminster seat, but to hold their assembly seat and solitary council seat (after losing 2 out of 3 council seats in Belfast last year, they're clearly vulnerable.) There's also a micro contest going on on the Unionist side. The boundary changes mean there is now a Unionist assembly seat there. DUP are currently far ahead of TUV and will be looking to defend that margin. The rabid anti-Zionism of many Irish Catholics is kind of hilarious to someone who is aware of the history of the Zionist movement and especially its old hard right elements. For example, former PM (and hard right paramilitary leader) Yitzhak Shamir was pretty much a an admirer of Michael Collins, and the Lehi in general was cartoonishly pro-IRA. Likud/Herut was pretty much pro-IRA until the late 70s to early 80s, while the Irish became very much pro-PLO around that era. Fun fact, President Herzog’s grandfather was a pro-IRA Rabbi in NI. |
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Post by therealriga on Jun 20, 2024 15:55:13 GMT
My mother, to the chagrin of me and my brother (who works for an Israeli company), was a PBP member at one point and is rabid on the subject of Gaza, almost getting to the point where I phone her less and less as she goes off on a rant about it without me ever mentioning it, while I don't argue and wait for an excuse to change the subject. It is that demographic that PBP are going for, not to win the Westminster seat, but to hold their assembly seat and solitary council seat (after losing 2 out of 3 council seats in Belfast last year, they're clearly vulnerable.) There's also a micro contest going on on the Unionist side. The boundary changes mean there is now a Unionist assembly seat there. DUP are currently far ahead of TUV and will be looking to defend that margin. The rabid anti-Zionism of many Irish Catholics is kind of hilarious to someone who is aware of the history of the Zionist movement and especially its old hard right elements. For example, former PM (and hard right paramilitary leader) Yitzhak Shamir was pretty much a an admirer of Michael Collins, and the Lehi in general was cartoonishly pro-IRA. Likud/Herut was pretty much pro-IRA until the late 70s to early 80s, while the Irish became very much pro-PLO around that era. Fun fact, President Herzog’s grandfather was a pro-IRA Rabbi in NI. I think a lot of that applies to the wider western European left for whom Jews Zionism became a problem to be eradicated around the same time. Chaim Herzog was born not far from where I was and had a commemorative plaque to mark it, however it started getting vandalised after the Lebanon war and had to be removed. Still, Catholic Belfast is not as monolithically anti-Israel as the PBP and co imagine, I know quite a few people who are either agnostic about Palestine or pro-Israel (I'm in the latter group, my dad and some others I know there too) we just shut up about it to avoid pointless arguments which usually degenerate into how Israel is an "apartheid state committing genocide in the world's largest open air prison camp", but silence doesn't mean agreement/support. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 20, 2024 16:14:16 GMT
Irish Catholics are probably more pro-Palestine than the average Arab-Israeli. My mother, to the chagrin of me and my brother (who works for an Israeli company), was a PBP member at one point and is rabid on the subject of Gaza, almost getting to the point where I phone her less and less as she goes off on a rant about it without me ever mentioning it, while I don't argue and wait for an excuse to change the subject. It is that demographic that PBP are going for, not to win the Westminster seat, but to hold their assembly seat and solitary council seat (after losing 2 out of 3 council seats in Belfast last year, they're clearly vulnerable.) There's also a micro contest going on on the Unionist side. The boundary changes mean there is now a Unionist assembly seat there. DUP are currently far ahead of TUV and will be looking to defend that margin. How comfortable is that? A unionist seat always seems close but never quite managed here (aside from 2003) |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 20, 2024 16:20:32 GMT
There's also a micro contest going on on the Unionist side. The boundary changes mean there is now a Unionist assembly seat there. DUP are currently far ahead of TUV and will be looking to defend that margin. How comfortable is that? A unionist seat always seems close but never quite managed here (aside from 2003) IIRC Belfast West has one of the poorest unionist turnouts, so if they campaign properly based on the prospect of actually winning a seat then there is good potential. |
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Post by therealriga on Jul 5, 2024 12:47:28 GMT
SF 21,009
52.9 (+4.4)
PBP 5,048
12.7 (-)
SDLP 4,318
10.9 (+3.4)
DUP 4,304
10.8 (-7.3)
TUV 2,010
5.1 (-)
Alliance 1,077
2.7 (-4.4)
Aontú 904
2.3 (-)
UUP 461
1.2 (+0.3)
Green 451
1.1 (-)
Little surprise, but even with unionists unmotivated in a safe nationalist seat they still managed to poll the equivalent of a comfortable quota in NI assembly terms, though it is certainly not beyond their ability to screw it up with in-fighting.
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Post by irish observer on Jul 6, 2024 15:43:59 GMT
Unionists could still screw it up alright certainly 3 SF with PBP in the hunt also to hold on new boundaries and SDLP fighting to get back in against 4th SF so if Unionist get a seat they have to remove a Nationalist.
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