Ynys Môn

[stb12]

Ynys Môn

[YL]

Constituency poll by Survation, carried out 21 December 2023 to 5 January 2024

Llinos Medi (Plaid Cymru) 39%
Ieuan Mon Williams (Labour) 27%
Virginia Crosbie (Conservative) 26%
unspecified (Reform UK) 4%
unspecified (Liberal Democrat) 1%
other 3%

[prv]

The Lib Dems have selected Leena Farhat as their candidate (www.libdems.wales/leena-farhat) and there is a Green party candidate as well called Martin Schwaller (northwestwales.greenparty.org.uk/general-election/)

They've actually had their first hustings already, which I believe was at Ysgol David Hughes.

[johng]

A true wildcard for the upcoming GE with three parties going to campaign hard for the seat.

The PCC election results for the constituency were:
Labour 2790
Plaid 4135
Con 2804
Lib Dem 417
I can only imagine Plaid will be a bit disappointed by the PCC results. The margin is similarly sized Ceredigion was 7,146 to 1,971 between Plaid and second place.

[Ports]

www.anglesey.gov.wales/documents/Docs-en/Council/Elections/UK-Parliament-election-2024/notice-of-statement-of-persons-nominated.pdf

Con: Virginia Crosbie
Lab: Ieuan Môn Williams
Plaid: Llinos Medi
LD: Leena Farhat
Reform: Emmett Jenner
Green: Martin Schwaller
OMRLP: Sir Grumpus Shorticus
Libertarian: Sam Wood

[Ports]

As so often it seems hard to predict this one, but like most others I've picked a Labour gain. It would be wrong to assume that Plaid's local campaign would be better and bigger because they are competitive in fewer seats - but in any case that could be true, and one feels that Labour would still win on national swing. It seems that lots of models based on Plaid polling at equal numbers to last time, end up with a Plaid gain here, especially if they factor a decline in Plaid's vote elsewhere due to tactical voting, that forces a compensatory Plaid increase somewhere else.

[batman]

I think I saw a poll here which put Plaid ahead. I have gone for Plaid gain but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Labour makes it. Crosbie will be the first incumbent to be defeated here since 1951 if she loses.

[johng]

Jun 19, 2024 8:57:39 GMT batman said:

I think I saw a poll here which put Plaid ahead. I have gone for Plaid gain but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Labour makes it. Crosbie will be the first incumbent to be defeated here since 1951 if she loses.

The poll was released early January so quite some time ago.

My feeling is a Labour gain is more likely at this point. No ground info though.

[Penddu]

The Yougov MRP had this as a Plaid win (something like 36% to Labour 28%??)

But the Survation poll had it as comfortable labour win with Plaid in third place on 15%.

Do your own research.

I believe this will be a Plaid gain but it will be close.

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 20, 2024 10:06:03 GMT Penddu said:

The Yougov MRP had this as a Plaid win (something like 36% to Labour 28%??)

But the Survation poll had it as comfortable labour win with Plaid in third place on 15%.

Do your own research.

I believe this will be a Plaid gain but it will be close.

Plaid on 15% in Ynys Mon seems very, very unlikely.

It would severely upset my brother, so not all bad.

[Penddu]

I agree... This is Electoral Calculus model who can't seem to model Plaid or SNP

[hugh01]

This has been shared quite wide on social media

x.com/NewyddionS4C/status/1802786241852707250

Jo Stevens, Shadow Welsh Secretary coming over quite condescending and a bit like a governor general in waiting. She won't have done many favours to any Welsh Labour candidate. I have to say the interviewer absolutely knows her stuff here and has her pinned down on issues. Worth watching for 8 or so mins

[froome]

I have opted for a Plaid gain, though suspect it will be close with Labour. I wouldn't be surprised if Reform beat the Tories for third place.

I was in the Menai Bridge/Beaumaris area on Tuesday and didn't see much electoral activity, just two posters, both for Plaid (one in each town). I have usually seen a few Labour posters in some of the villages in that part of the island at previous elections, but didn't get a chance to visit those this time.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 20, 2024 19:47:36 GMT hugh01 said:

This has been shared quite wide on social media

Jo Stevens, Shadow Welsh Secretary coming over quite condescending and a bit like a governor general in waiting. She won't have done many favours to any Welsh Labour candidate. I have to say the interviewer absolutely knows her stuff here and has her pinned down on issues. Worth watching for 8 or so mins

[rcronald]

Surprisingly good Tory result here.

[Sg1]

Ynys Mon seems to like their incumbent MP's. I had a feeling this might happen, but wasn't brave enough to predict it. Now the No1 tory target in Wales.

I also note that some of the ex conservative seats were closer than I thought they'd be, namely Clwyd north and Pembrokeshire.

[pembspolitic]

Jul 5, 2024 14:14:55 GMT Sg1 said:

Ynys Mon seems to like their incumbent MP's. I had a feeling this might happen, but wasn't brave enough to predict it. Now the No1 tory target in Wales.

I also note that some of the ex conservative seats were closer than I thought they'd be, namely Clwyd north and Pembrokeshire.

But as you note, the islanders like incumbent MPs, this is the first time since 1951 that Ynys Mon has not backed the incumbent MP. I’d think that Pembrokeshire/Clwyd seats would be bigger targets and easier to gain in future.

[Sg1]

Jul 5, 2024 14:25:58 GMT pembspolitic said:

Jul 5, 2024 14:14:55 GMT Sg1 said:

Ynys Mon seems to like their incumbent MP's. I had a feeling this might happen, but wasn't brave enough to predict it. Now the No1 tory target in Wales.

I also note that some of the ex conservative seats were closer than I thought they'd be, namely Clwyd north and Pembrokeshire.

But as you note, the islanders like incumbent MPs, this is the first time since 1951 that Ynys Mon has not backed the incumbent MP. I’d think that Pembrokeshire/Clwyd seats would be bigger targets and easier to gain in future.

Exactly, should have said theoretically the No1 target. I suspect that with the next election (hopefully) under more normal circumstances Montgomeryshire would be the top target for an easy gain back.

[The Bishop]

Labour underperformed in Wales this time, and at least some of the reasons for that might not still apply in 2028/29. Which might easily, to a degree, counteract the surely improved Tory performance (though to what extent, is totally unknowable) that we can expect then.

[batman]

The underperformance was not total though. Labour still managed to win some quite difficult seats in Pembrokeshire & Monmouthshire, plus Bangor Aberconwy. The performance was underwhelming in most of the valleys, but nothing like sufficient to lose any seats although Llanelli was pretty hairy. 27 out of the 32 seats is still pretty high historically; in 1945 the Tories held on to several seats & Labour only won 2 seats in north Wales (Caernarvonshire & Wrexham), and none in west Wales except Llanelli, indeed Carmarthen was a Liberal gain from Labour (the only one in Britain). The Tories have only been wiped out twice before in modern times, in 1997 & 2001.