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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 3, 2024 16:24:15 GMT
And how do you pronounce it? LLanethlee! Why pronounce the two "lls" differently?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,745
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 3, 2024 16:38:38 GMT
James Griffiths retired fifty four years ago. The area was a different place at the time: the anthracite mines were still major employers, huge numbers were employed in the various metals works (especially those producing tinplate), and although the chapels had declined they remained an enormously influential part of everyday life in the district. The average voter remembered (even if perhaps as a child) the General Strike and the locust years of the 1920s and 30s. All of that is gone now. Places change so gradually that we don't entirely notice and, eventually, they are no longer the same place, even if they are in the same place.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 3, 2024 17:00:56 GMT
Yougov's last MRP (11-18th June) forecasts Labour winning with 30% of the vote to Plaid's 26%. (final YouGov MRP out tonight). Tonight's final MRP give Lab and PC both 29%. I'm afraid I just can't see that happening.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 3, 2024 20:37:01 GMT
Why pronounce the two "lls" differently? Because some people don't care about pronouncing things correctly according to the rules of pronunciation of the language concerned.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Llanelli
Jul 4, 2024 10:13:16 GMT
via mobile
Post by cogload on Jul 4, 2024 10:13:16 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 4, 2024 10:30:56 GMT
14 tweets from that account since the May elections including that one at 9:30pm last night. Not sure this is the sign of a winning campaign nor a campaign that was expecting this projection.
And even if Plaid win, Labour won’t be as low as 29%.
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Llanelli
Jul 4, 2024 12:26:50 GMT
via mobile
Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 4, 2024 12:26:50 GMT
I’ve just been thinking about the two posts I made yesterday.
Boundary changes are helpful to Plaid here. An extra 9,000 votes from a seat (Carmarthen East) that’s voted Plaid at the last six general elections and all six Assembly/Senedd elections are now in this seat.
This seat, like Pontypridd which has also seen an unusual spike in the Plaid projection at the MRPs, was a seat uncontested by both the Lib Dems and Greens in 2019. Are the MRPs taking this into account?
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Post by kevinf on Jul 4, 2024 12:42:28 GMT
I’ve just been thinking about the two posts I made yesterday. Boundary changes are helpful to Plaid here. An extra 9,000 votes from a seat (Carmarthen East) that’s voted Plaid at the last six general elections and all six Assembly/Senedd elections are now in this seat. This seat, like Pontypridd which has also seen an unusual spike in the Plaid projection at the MRPs, was a seat uncontested by both the Lib Dems and Greens in 2019. Are the MRPs taking this into account? I seriously wonder if the MRPs are taking ANYTHING into account….my son just voted here, either for Plaid or Labour.
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Llanelli
Jul 5, 2024 15:32:50 GMT
via mobile
Post by mrsir on Jul 5, 2024 15:32:50 GMT
Labour got 31% of the vote here…
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Post by batman on Jul 5, 2024 15:39:23 GMT
I'd be really interested to see informed analysis of why Labour did quite this badly here & Reform so well, compared with other Welsh constituencies. I don't know the seat well enough to offer such analysis
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,745
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 5, 2024 15:47:18 GMT
I'd be really interested to see informed analysis of why Labour did quite this badly here & Reform so well, compared with other Welsh constituencies. I don't know the seat well enough to offer such analysis Certain... um... local issues that rather chimed with Reform's message would be at least one factor. Boundary changes also more unfavourable than they look.
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Post by kevinf on Jul 5, 2024 15:57:42 GMT
Yep, it’s my son’s seat after the boundary changes. Stradey Hotel I assume Sib is alluding to. Also a bit of local disquiet at the Labour candidate becoming a Dame. Still a shock though, especially if you add the Ukip vote to Reform.
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Post by Penddu on Jul 6, 2024 5:05:46 GMT
Easy Labour win. This seat should be a Plaid target - but they have been let down in the past by poor candidate selection and local infighting. I think they will finish second but a long way off. Reform should do well on the back of the Strade Hotel saga - but maybe split by UKIP candidate. Conservatives in 4th It is time for Labour to replace Dame Nia - she doesnt resonate with the voters. Plaid have a strong candidate who could probably win the seat in the Senedd...except that seat will be paired with another (probably Caerfyrddin) to return 6 MSs. So neither Plaid, Labour or Reform can win it at Senedd...but they will all win something. Assuming it is paired with Caerfyrddin I would expect 2 Plaid, 2 Labour, 1 Reform & 1 Conservative. But a lot can happen in next two years..
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Post by Penddu on Jul 6, 2024 8:41:35 GMT
I'd be really interested to see informed analysis of why Labour did quite this badly here & Reform so well, compared with other Welsh constituencies. I don't know the seat well enough to offer such analysis 1. Strade Hotel story...raising profile of anti-immigration 2. Dame Nia is not particularly liked 3. Lee Waters (MS for Llanelli) not supporting Labour campsign
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,762
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Post by johng on Jul 6, 2024 9:54:26 GMT
I'd be really interested to see informed analysis of why Labour did quite this badly here & Reform so well, compared with other Welsh constituencies. I don't know the seat well enough to offer such analysis The result is quite a shock. Activists from here were being sent to Caerfyrddin even in the final days of the poll.
So it's obvious the party didn't realise how close it was which is worrying to say the least.
Though I'm not an expert on the seat to say why Reform did quite so well.
Penddu - Of course Lee Waters supported the Labour campaign.
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Post by mrpastelito on Jul 6, 2024 11:47:51 GMT
This is now Reform's top target seat, requiring a swing of 1.85%.
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Llanelli
Jul 6, 2024 11:50:19 GMT
via mobile
Sg1 likes this
Post by observer on Jul 6, 2024 11:50:19 GMT
This is now Reform's top target seat, requiring a swing of 1.85%. This is why they need active branches
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,067
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Llanelli
Jul 13, 2024 16:48:49 GMT
via mobile
Post by Sg1 on Jul 13, 2024 16:48:49 GMT
Should Reform perform well at the next general election and gain more seats, it wouldn't surprise me if they still missed out on Llanelli. Lots of left leaning voters for Labour to squeeze, and I doubt Labour will be sleeping on this seat next time.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,762
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Post by johng on Jul 13, 2024 20:45:31 GMT
Should Reform perform well at the next general election and gain more seats, it wouldn't surprise me if they still missed out on Llanelli. Lots of left leaning voters for Labour to squeeze, and I doubt Labour will be sleeping on this seat next time. We've faced tough challenges here before and overcome them. I think it's really the case nobody realised that Reform were doing quite so well.
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Llanelli
Aug 6, 2024 7:44:19 GMT
via mobile
Post by greenhert on Aug 6, 2024 7:44:19 GMT
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