Llanelli

[gwynthegriff]

Jul 3, 2024 15:26:33 GMT graham said:

Jul 3, 2024 14:17:47 GMT pembspolitic said:

And how do you pronounce it?

LLanethlee!

Why pronounce the two "lls" differently?

[Sibboleth]

James Griffiths retired fifty four years ago. The area was a different place at the time: the anthracite mines were still major employers, huge numbers were employed in the various metals works (especially those producing tinplate), and although the chapels had declined they remained an enormously influential part of everyday life in the district. The average voter remembered (even if perhaps as a child) the General Strike and the locust years of the 1920s and 30s. All of that is gone now. Places change so gradually that we don't entirely notice and, eventually, they are no longer the same place, even if they are in the same place.

[LDCaerdydd]

Jul 3, 2024 8:38:42 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Yougov's last MRP (11-18th June) forecasts Labour winning with 30% of the vote to Plaid's 26%. (final YouGov MRP out tonight).

Tonight's final MRP give Lab and PC both 29%. I'm afraid I just can't see that happening.

[johnloony]

Jul 3, 2024 16:24:15 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Jul 3, 2024 15:26:33 GMT graham said:

LLanethlee!

Why pronounce the two "lls" differently?

Because some people don't care about pronouncing things correctly according to the rules of pronunciation of the language concerned.

[cogload]

[LDCaerdydd]

14 tweets from that account since the May elections including that one at 9:30pm last night. Not sure this is the sign of a winning campaign nor a campaign that was expecting this projection.

And even if Plaid win, Labour won’t be as low as 29%.

[LDCaerdydd]

I’ve just been thinking about the two posts I made yesterday.

Boundary changes are helpful to Plaid here. An extra 9,000 votes from a seat (Carmarthen East) that’s voted Plaid at the last six general elections and all six Assembly/Senedd elections are now in this seat.

This seat, like Pontypridd which has also seen an unusual spike in the Plaid projection at the MRPs, was a seat uncontested by both the Lib Dems and Greens in 2019. Are the MRPs taking this into account?

[kevinf]

Jul 4, 2024 12:26:50 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

I’ve just been thinking about the two posts I made yesterday.

Boundary changes are helpful to Plaid here. An extra 9,000 votes from a seat (Carmarthen East) that’s voted Plaid at the last six general elections and all six Assembly/Senedd elections are now in this seat.

This seat, like Pontypridd which has also seen an unusual spike in the Plaid projection at the MRPs, was a seat uncontested by both the Lib Dems and Greens in 2019. Are the MRPs taking this into account?

I seriously wonder if the MRPs are taking ANYTHING into account….my son just voted here, either for Plaid or Labour.

[mrsir]

Labour got 31% of the vote here…

[batman]

I'd be really interested to see informed analysis of why Labour did quite this badly here & Reform so well, compared with other Welsh constituencies. I don't know the seat well enough to offer such analysis

[Sibboleth]

Jul 5, 2024 15:39:23 GMT batman said:

I'd be really interested to see informed analysis of why Labour did quite this badly here & Reform so well, compared with other Welsh constituencies. I don't know the seat well enough to offer such analysis

Certain... um... local issues that rather chimed with Reform's message would be at least one factor. Boundary changes also more unfavourable than they look.

[kevinf]

Yep, it’s my son’s seat after the boundary changes. Stradey Hotel I assume Sib is alluding to. Also a bit of local disquiet at the Labour candidate becoming a Dame. Still a shock though, especially if you add the Ukip vote to Reform.

[Penddu]

Jun 14, 2024 5:11:16 GMT Penddu said:

Easy Labour win.

This seat should be a Plaid target - but they have been let down in the past by poor candidate selection and local infighting. I think they will finish second but a long way off.

Reform should do well on the back of the Strade Hotel saga - but maybe split by UKIP candidate.

Conservatives in 4th

It is time for Labour to replace Dame Nia - she doesnt resonate with the voters. Plaid have a strong candidate who could probably win the seat in the Senedd...except that seat will be paired with another (probably Caerfyrddin) to return 6 MSs. So neither Plaid, Labour or Reform can win it at Senedd...but they will all win something. Assuming it is paired with Caerfyrddin I would expect 2 Plaid, 2 Labour, 1 Reform & 1 Conservative. But a lot can happen in next two years..

[Penddu]

Jul 5, 2024 15:39:23 GMT batman said:

I'd be really interested to see informed analysis of why Labour did quite this badly here & Reform so well, compared with other Welsh constituencies. I don't know the seat well enough to offer such analysis

1. Strade Hotel story...raising profile of anti-immigration 
2. Dame Nia is not particularly liked
3. Lee Waters (MS for Llanelli) not supporting Labour campsign

[johng]

Jul 5, 2024 15:39:23 GMT batman said:

I'd be really interested to see informed analysis of why Labour did quite this badly here & Reform so well, compared with other Welsh constituencies. I don't know the seat well enough to offer such analysis

The result is quite a shock.

Activists from here were being sent to Caerfyrddin even in the final days of the poll.

So it's obvious the party didn't realise how close it was which is worrying to say the least.

Though I'm not an expert on the seat to say why Reform did quite so well.

Penddu - Of course Lee Waters supported the Labour campaign.

[mrpastelito]

This is now Reform's top target seat, requiring a swing of 1.85%.

[observer]

Jul 6, 2024 11:47:51 GMT mrpastelito said:

This is now Reform's top target seat, requiring a swing of 1.85%.

This is why they need active branches

[Sg1]

Should Reform perform well at the next general election and gain more seats, it wouldn't surprise me if they still missed out on Llanelli. Lots of left leaning voters for Labour to squeeze, and I doubt Labour will be sleeping on this seat next time.

[johng]

Jul 13, 2024 16:48:49 GMT Sg1 said:

Should Reform perform well at the next general election and gain more seats, it wouldn't surprise me if they still missed out on Llanelli. Lots of left leaning voters for Labour to squeeze, and I doubt Labour will be sleeping on this seat next time.

We've faced tough challenges here before and overcome them. 

I think it's really the case nobody realised that Reform were doing quite so well.

[greenhert]

The result was shocking enough for the i to ask locals the full story behind it: inews.co.uk/news/gone-dogs-desperation-llanelli-reform-3207902