Llanelli

[stb12]

Llanelli

[kevinf]

No Labour candidate yet?

[andrea]

May 27, 2024 13:17:18 GMT kevinf said:

No Labour candidate yet?

The sitting MP?

[batman]

Yes there has been no indication that Dame Nia is planning to retire yet.

[kevinf]

May 27, 2024 14:14:54 GMT batman said:

Yes there has been no indication that Dame Nia is planning to retire yet.

It’s just it’s not on LabourList list. Thought they may know something.

[iain]

www.carmarthenshire.gov.wales/media/ehnjjnku/noticeofpollandpersonsnominatedandpollinglocations_llanelli.pdf

7 candidates: Labour, Conservative, Plaid, Lib Dem, Reform, Green, UKIP

[Penddu]

Easy Labour win.

This seat should be a Plaid target - but they have been let down in the past by poor candidate selection and local infighting. I think they will finish second but a long way off.

Reform should do well on the back of the Strade Hotel saga - but maybe split by UKIP candidate.

Conservatives in 4th

[LDCaerdydd]

This is a seat that has been a perpetual target for Plaid at Westminster for over 20 years now and I'm afraid as Penddu says they won't come close. I could see them moving back into 2nd, but it'll be distant 2nd and they would only just be ahead of Reform.

The reason I'm mentioning this is The Times today has a list of the 100 seats which it claims using YouGov's figures are the 100 narrowest Labour wins with a Labour victory of 3,072. That would be the smallest since Labour's victory in 1924.

Yougov's last MRP (11-18th June) forecasts Labour winning with 30% of the vote to Plaid's 26%. (final YouGov MRP out tonight).

I think this could go down as one of the wildest inaccuracies of any forecast.

[batman]

In 1945, this seat as it was drawn at the time had the largest numerical Labour majority in Wales, which is saying a great deal.

[graham]

What has caused the collapse of Labour's majority here since the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies? De-indusrialisation?

I had relatives living in Burry Port within the constituency 1961 - 74 and it was then very much a Labour citadel.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jul 3, 2024 9:42:58 GMT graham said:

What has caused the collapse of Labour's majority here since the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies? De-indusrialisation?

I had relatives living in Burry Port within the constituency 1961 - 74 and it was then very much a Labour citadel.

When you take voters for granted, you'll eventually lose. Why? Because voters concerns change and you fail to notice.

[graham]

Jul 3, 2024 10:18:05 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jul 3, 2024 9:42:58 GMT graham said:

What has caused the collapse of Labour's majority here since the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies? De-indusrialisation?

I had relatives living in Burry Port within the constituency 1961 - 74 and it was then very much a Labour citadel.

When you take voters for granted, you'll eventually lose. Why? Because voters concerns change and you fail to notice.

I don't think that was true of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies.

[john07]

Jul 3, 2024 9:42:58 GMT graham said:

What has caused the collapse of Labour's majority here since the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies? De-indusrialisation?

I had relatives living in Burry Port within the constituency 1961 - 74 and it was then very much a Labour citadel.

The usual answer is demographic change which is an often delayed reaction to deindustrialisation.

Look at the map of the 1950 election and compare it with now. You will see changes with Labour losing out in rural Norfolk seats because of the decline in the agricultural workers. You will see former mining areas moving to the Conservatives. You will also see numerous former City seats such as Withington, Hallam, Edgbaston, Edinburgh South, Cathcart which were once Tory bastions switch over as their former voters die off or move to the suburbs.

In the USA the electoral geography has practically flipped with New England and the West Coast, solidly Republican move to Democrat. Equally the South and parts of the Rust Belt have gone in the opposite direction.

[graham]

I still refer to the seat as Llanelly.

[pembspolitic]

Jul 3, 2024 13:15:28 GMT graham said:

I still refer to the seat as Llanelly.

And how do you pronounce it?

[graham]

Jul 3, 2024 14:17:47 GMT pembspolitic said:

Jul 3, 2024 13:15:28 GMT graham said:

I still refer to the seat as Llanelly.

And how do you pronounce it?

LLanethlee!

[batman]

The reason for Labour’s relative decline is related to the high incidence of Welsh speakers in the constituency. Labour’s other traditional Valleys strongholds are heavily English-speaking but here almost half do or can speak Welsh. Although Labour still enjoys good support in what is a very working class seat, Plaid has eaten into it amongst those who regard Wales-specific issues as of paramount importance. They are known to be weaker in the English-speaking Valleys and Labour has had fewer meaningful challenges there by and large.

[carlton43]

Jul 3, 2024 14:17:47 GMT pembspolitic said:

Jul 3, 2024 13:15:28 GMT graham said:

I still refer to the seat as Llanelly.

And how do you pronounce it?

H-Lan   Eth   Lee

[pembspolitic]

Jul 3, 2024 16:02:41 GMT carlton43 said:

Jul 3, 2024 14:17:47 GMT pembspolitic said:

And how do you pronounce it?

H-Lan   Eth   Lee

Ah, you must be the rail announcer on the South Wales rail line

[graham]

Jul 3, 2024 15:27:14 GMT batman said:

The reason for Labour’s relative decline is related to the high incidence of Welsh speakers in the constituency. Labour’s other traditional Valleys strongholds are heavily English-speaking but here almost half do or can speak Welsh. Although Labour still enjoys good support in what is a very working class seat, Plaid has eaten into it amongst those who regard Wales-specific issues as of paramount importance. They are known to be weaker in the English-speaking Valleys and Labour has had fewer meaningful challenges there by and large.

Welsh spesking has been an ongoing characteristic of the constituency, but the Plaid vote did not really become very significant until the 1990s - and particularly in 2001 when Labour's vote share slumped sharply.