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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:20:26 GMT
Caerfyrddin
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,843
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Post by YL on Apr 13, 2024 8:37:43 GMT
Constituency poll by Survation, carried out 2 to 4 January 2024
Ann Davies (Plaid Cymru) 30% Martha O'Neill (Labour) 24% unspecified (Conservative) 24% Jonathan Edwards (Independent) 10% unspecified (Reform UK) 4% unspecified (Liberal Democrat) 4% other independent 2% other 1%
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,762
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Post by johng on May 22, 2024 18:59:19 GMT
This is one seat where I think it really is difficult to tell who will win.
I scoffed a bit at the poll above when I first saw it believing that we were in with a very good chance. But the PCC election results in the county (obviously includes Llanelli too) were very strong for Plaid. Perhaps they might even be the favourites at this early stage despite their difficulties.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 22, 2024 19:12:11 GMT
YouGov’s MRP had Labour comfortably ahead.
If Labour have a good election I can see them winning here on the new boundaries.
I’m also not sure at this stage what to expect from Plaid at a Wales wide level, they’ve had more bad GE campaigns than good ones in my adult life and even the good ones weren’t spectacular.
New boundaries, new candidate, new leader, resurgent Labour Party plus a strong chance of their ex-MP standing as an Indi.
One thing I’m sure of is that Simon Hart knows he doesn’t have a chance.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,762
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Post by johng on May 22, 2024 19:30:46 GMT
YouGov’s MRP had Labour comfortably ahead. If Labour have a good election I can see them winning here on the new boundaries. I’m also not sure at this stage what to expect from Plaid at a Wales wide level, they’ve had more bad GE campaigns than good ones in my adult life and even the good ones weren’t spectacular. New boundaries, new candidate, new leader, resurgent Labour Party plus a strong chance of their ex-MP standing as an Indi. One thing I’m sure of is that Simon Hart knows he doesn’t have a chance. Maybe I am just being pessimistic, but those PCC election results - the ones in this area were much stronger than what I thought they would get. Plus the MRP isn't particualrly accurate for individual seats - especially where there's a strong third party.
Though on a good Labour night (which 2024 should be), you're right that Labour should have an excellent chance.
On Plaid, they haven't had a good Westminster election since... well, quite some time. Though what is good for them? Realistically, two (Ceredigion Preseli and Dwyfor Meirionnydd) should be clear holds and two (this seat and Ynys Mon) are potential targets. Otherwise, there isn't really much for them to go for.
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Post by batman on May 22, 2024 19:34:53 GMT
I will have to work hard on my very good friend who lives in Carmarthen town itself. If she votes I think it'll be holding her nose & voting Labour, but she might be difficult to persuade to vote at all. If she thinks Simon Hart has no chance she is less likely to, if she thinks there is any danger Hart could win then she might vote Labour with extreme reluctance. She doesn't like Plaid any more than Labour but it's not quite beyond the bounds of possibility that she will consider them, although she is English.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 22, 2024 19:37:21 GMT
On Plaid, they haven't had a good Westminster election since... well, quite some time. Though what is good for them? Realistically, two (Ceredigion Preseli and Dwyfor Meirionnydd) should be clear holds and two (this seat and Ynys Mon) are potential targets. Otherwise, there isn't really much for them to go for. I had to change what I originally typed. I originally said Plaid haven't had a good election, then changed it to election campaign which is what I’m referring to. Ignore the results and just look at the short campaign, they quite rightly get minimal UK wide coverage, the Welsh media is virtually non existent and their own campaign regularly just flounders.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,762
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Post by johng on May 22, 2024 19:49:30 GMT
On Plaid, they haven't had a good Westminster election since... well, quite some time. Though what is good for them? Realistically, two (Ceredigion Preseli and Dwyfor Meirionnydd) should be clear holds and two (this seat and Ynys Mon) are potential targets. Otherwise, there isn't really much for them to go for. I had to change what I originally typed. I originally said Plaid haven't had a good election, then changed it to election campaign which is what I’m referring to. Ignore the results and just look at the short campaign, they quite rightly get minimal UK wide coverage, the Welsh media is virtually non existent and their own campaign regularly just flounders.
Well that's always going to be the case. Even the Lib Dems will struggle in that regard.
Westminster elections logically focus on the next PM and government.
They will only win here with a strong ground campaign. They certainly have the campaigners and local cllrs for it. Though we will see.
Is Edwards definitely standing? I have a look on his Facebook and he was clearly looks like he was in campaign mode last week. Including with a Plaid Cymru councillor.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 22, 2024 19:51:28 GMT
Is Edwards definitely standing? I have a look on his Facebook and he was clearly looks like he was in campaign mode last week. Including with a Plaid Cymru councillor. He’s said he will, time will tell if he actually does though.
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Post by Penddu on May 25, 2024 15:05:02 GMT
If Edwards stands he will probably screw up Plaid's chances and Labour will win. If he doesnt then Plaid should win.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 28, 2024 9:20:41 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on May 28, 2024 12:51:54 GMT
Best named seat in the UK IMO.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,762
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Post by johng on May 28, 2024 18:57:31 GMT
That's a bit of a surprise as it looked to me, as an observer, that he was in campaign mode. He probably would have only got a couple of thousand votes, but this does make a Labour gain a touch less likely. Though, I do think Labour are still favourites.
It's going to be a real competition!
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Post by batman on May 28, 2024 22:43:04 GMT
I have to persuade my anti-Starmer friend here to vote Labour now. She will probably only do so if she thinks there is a serious chance of Hart being re-elected.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,251
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Post by iain on Jun 8, 2024 12:55:20 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 3, 2024 11:21:19 GMT
Starmer here today (with Vaughan Gething).
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,289
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Post by graham on Jul 3, 2024 13:14:26 GMT
Starmer here today (with Vaughan Gething). It suggests things are fairly tight in Carmarthen.
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Post by pembspolitic on Jul 3, 2024 14:05:09 GMT
Starmer here today (with Vaughan Gething). Based on his poll ratings, I’d have thought they’d want him to keep some distance. I think this will be a Plaid Gain. They had a reasonably good election at the 2022 Locals (and much better than any other party) and have a solid base of Councillors and voters across the constituency.
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Post by batman on Jul 3, 2024 15:29:37 GMT
Starmer here today (with Vaughan Gething). Based on his poll ratings, I’d have thought they’d want him to keep some distance. I think this will be a Plaid Gain. They had a reasonably good election at the 2022 Locals (and much better than any other party) and have a solid base of Councillors and voters across the constituency. Nonsense about his poll ratings. He isn’t Rishi Sunak
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,762
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Post by johng on Jul 3, 2024 16:46:06 GMT
Starmer here today (with Vaughan Gething). It suggests things are fairly tight in Carmarthen.
Things are definitely tight. Will be an interesting night.
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