Caerfyrddin

[stb12]

Caerfyrddin

[YL]

Constituency poll by Survation, carried out 2 to 4 January 2024

Ann Davies (Plaid Cymru) 30%
Martha O'Neill (Labour) 24%
unspecified (Conservative) 24%
Jonathan Edwards (Independent) 10%
unspecified (Reform UK) 4%
unspecified (Liberal Democrat) 4%
other independent 2%
other 1%

[johng]

This is one seat where I think it really is difficult to tell who will win.

I scoffed a bit at the poll above when I first saw it believing that we were in with a very good chance. But the PCC election results in the county (obviously includes Llanelli too) were very strong for Plaid. Perhaps they might even be the favourites at this early stage despite their difficulties.

[LDCaerdydd]

YouGov’s MRP had Labour comfortably ahead.

If Labour have a good election I can see them winning here on the new boundaries.

I’m also not sure at this stage what to expect from Plaid at a Wales wide level, they’ve had more bad GE campaigns than good ones in my adult life and even the good ones weren’t spectacular.

New boundaries, new candidate, new leader, resurgent Labour Party plus a strong chance of their ex-MP standing as an Indi.

One thing I’m sure of is that Simon Hart knows he doesn’t have a chance.

[johng]

May 22, 2024 19:12:11 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

YouGov’s MRP had Labour comfortably ahead.

If Labour have a good election I can see them winning here on the new boundaries.

I’m also not sure at this stage what to expect from Plaid at a Wales wide level, they’ve had more bad GE campaigns than good ones in my adult life and even the good ones weren’t spectacular.

New boundaries, new candidate, new leader, resurgent Labour Party plus a strong chance of their ex-MP standing as an Indi.

One thing I’m sure of is that Simon Hart knows he doesn’t have a chance.

Maybe I am just being pessimistic, but those PCC election results - the ones in this area were much stronger than what I thought they would get. Plus the MRP isn't particualrly accurate for individual seats - especially where there's a strong third party.

Though on a good Labour night (which 2024 should be), you're right that Labour should have an excellent chance.

On Plaid, they haven't had a good Westminster election since... well, quite some time. Though what is good for them? Realistically, two (Ceredigion Preseli and Dwyfor Meirionnydd) should be clear holds and two (this seat and Ynys Mon) are potential targets. Otherwise, there isn't really much for them to go for.

[batman]

I will have to work hard on my very good friend who lives in Carmarthen town itself. If she votes I think it'll be holding her nose & voting Labour, but she might be difficult to persuade to vote at all. If she thinks Simon Hart has no chance she is less likely to, if she thinks there is any danger Hart could win then she might vote Labour with extreme reluctance. She doesn't like Plaid any more than Labour but it's not quite beyond the bounds of possibility that she will consider them, although she is English.

[LDCaerdydd]

May 22, 2024 19:30:46 GMT johng said:

On Plaid, they haven't had a good Westminster election since... well, quite some time. Though what is good for them? Realistically, two (Ceredigion Preseli and Dwyfor Meirionnydd) should be clear holds and two (this seat and Ynys Mon) are potential targets. Otherwise, there isn't really much for them to go for.

I had to change what I originally typed. I originally said Plaid haven't had a good election, then changed it to election campaign which is what I’m referring to.

Ignore the results and just look at the short campaign, they quite rightly get minimal UK wide coverage, the Welsh media is virtually non existent and their own campaign regularly just flounders.

[johng]

May 22, 2024 19:37:21 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

May 22, 2024 19:30:46 GMT johng said:

On Plaid, they haven't had a good Westminster election since... well, quite some time. Though what is good for them? Realistically, two (Ceredigion Preseli and Dwyfor Meirionnydd) should be clear holds and two (this seat and Ynys Mon) are potential targets. Otherwise, there isn't really much for them to go for.

I had to change what I originally typed. I originally said Plaid haven't had a good election, then changed it to election campaign which is what I’m referring to.

Ignore the results and just look at the short campaign, they quite rightly get minimal UK wide coverage, the Welsh media is virtually non existent and their own campaign regularly just flounders.

Well that's always going to be the case.

Even the Lib Dems will struggle in that regard.

Westminster elections logically focus on the next PM and government.

They will only win here with a strong ground campaign. They certainly have the campaigners and local cllrs for it. Though we will see.

Is Edwards definitely standing? I have a look on his Facebook and he was clearly looks like he was in campaign mode last week. Including with a Plaid Cymru councillor.

[LDCaerdydd]

May 22, 2024 19:49:30 GMT johng said:

Is Edwards definitely standing? I have a look on his Facebook and he was clearly looks like he was in campaign mode last week. Including with a Plaid Cymru councillor.

He’s said he will, time will tell if he actually does though.

[Penddu]

If Edwards stands he will probably screw up Plaid's chances and Labour will win. If he doesnt then Plaid should win.

[LDCaerdydd]

Edwards has now announced he will not stand.

A Welsh MP who accepted a police caution for common assault on his wife has announced that he will not be standing in the general election.

Jonathan Edwards, who has represented Carmarthen East and Dinefwr since 2010, had previously indicated that he was minded to stand as an Independent candidate in the new seat of Caerfyrddin.

He was suspended by Plaid Cymru in May 2020 following the incident in which his wife was assaulted. The Crown Prosecution Service evaluated the evidence and decided that a caution rather than a criminal charge was the appropriate way to deal with the matter.

In 2022 Mr Edwards was allowed to re-join the party by a disciplinary panel, triggering an argument about whether he should represent the party in the House of Commons. A majority of the party’s ruling National Executive Committee recommended that he should not resume his work as a Plaid Cymru Westminster MP. He then decided to remain outside Plaid and continue to sit as an Independent.

In a statement issued this morning (28 May) Mr Edwards said: “Since the general election was called last week, I have taken the time to consider whether I will be putting my name forward. I would like to thank everyone who has been in touch to encourage me to do so. However, upon deep reflection, I have decided that it is time for me to stand down from Westminster.

“I have dedicated my adult life to public service, and politics is the very essence of my soul. Serving my home communities has been the most incredible honour and privilege. I hope the people of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr will feel that I have done the job to the best of my ability, with integrity and for the right reasons.

“The fact that I am the only politician that has ever won four elections, and that I am the longest ever serving Parliamentarian for the constituency and its previous incarnations, indicates that I must have done something right. You will never understand how much it has meant to me that you put your faith in me for all these years.

“In an age of great scepticism, a good elected member can make a huge difference to people’s lives.

“My priority was always Carmarthenshire and my energies were always directed towards serving the needs of our communities and not grandstanding in Westminster. I would like to thank my staff who have been loyal to me over the years for their hard work.

“I have been fortunate to work with some incredible people who have helped thousands of constituents with problems and community groups achieving so much for our county. I am sorry that you will now be faced with an uncertain future for a while; however I am confident that you will flourish in whatever you choose to do next.

“We have also achieved some great policy victories. Leading the charge to scrap the Housing Revenue Account Subsidy Scheme in Wales which saves Welsh councils an estimated £100m per annum, enabling those that kept their housing stock to build for the first time in years. I feel an enormous sense of pride when I see new council houses being built in Carmarthenshire.

“Uncovering the scandalous financial loss to Wales resulting from HS2 and other Barnett scandals. Making the case for a Wales-specific public sector pension investment fund. And securing one of the first Levelling Up bids in the UK for the Tywi Valley cycle path between Llandeilo and Carmarthen.

He added: “I don’t think I will ever accept the manner in which Plaid Cymru exploited an incident in my personal life to try and destroy me. I acted in good faith and trusted the party’s processes, only for them to be corrupted by those who misused their power in order to settle old scores. That is a matter for them and their conscience. They will undoubtedly rejoice at this statement, but any victory they may feel is a pyrrhic one.

“It has taken me a long time to recover, and to be perfectly frank I am amazed I am still alive and breathing after the depths I fell to. I am, however, now at peace. At the end of last week, I attended the funeral of the wife of a friend who tragically died young from cancer. I reflected on what’s important in life and that means moving forward, not looking back.

“This week marks the second anniversary of my own father’s death – a man who gave his whole life to Plaid Cymru. It still haunts me that when he was gasping for his final breaths on his deathbed he witnessed his party turning against his son. That sort of torment is beyond comprehension. My father was a Christian and he would not condone a major decision to stand at this election on the basis of revenge and would instead encourage forgiveness.

“I am so fortunate to have beautiful children that bring joy to everyone they encounter. I can’t wait to spend more time with them, having lost out on so much of their early years. And my amazing partner Fflur gives me faith that the future will be one full of love and happiness. I have much to look forward to.

“On Saturday I played cricket for my beloved Ammanford Wildboars Centurions cricket team. The anthracite grey of the Amman Valley runs deep in my blood. I reflected that there is more than one way to represent the communities where I come from and call home.

“I look forward to deepening my engagement with the town’s fabulous sporting teams, especially coaching the under-10 cricket team. It astounds me how quickly the players are developing. The proudest moment of my political career was when Ammanford RFC asked me to become the club’s honorary vice president. The people of the Amman Valley have stuck by me through thick and thin and I am proud to be one of you.

“Politics is a tough and all-encompassing occupation and I genuinely wish my successor well. For myself, I can’t wait to be home where I belong.”

The new seat of Caerfyrddin is considered a three-way marginal.

It will be contested by Conservative candidate Simon Hart, a former Secretary of State for Wales who is currently the government chief whip and has sat as the MP for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire; Labour candidate Martha O’Neil and Plaid Cymru candidate Ann Davies, a member of Carmarthenshire County Council’s cabinet.

Before Mr Edwards released his statement, the iconic singer and former Plaid Cymru President Dafydd Iwan posted a message to X which said: “As one who admires the great contribution of Jonathan Edwards to Wales and Plaid Cymru, I really hope that he will not stand against the party in this election.

“He can then hold his head high, and return to politics if he wants to in the next election to Senedd Cymru.”

nation.cymru/news/mp-cautioned-for-assaulting-his-wife-confirms-he-wont-be-standing-for-re-election/

[cogload]

Best named seat in the UK IMO.

[johng]

May 28, 2024 9:20:41 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Edwards has now announced he will not stand.
nation.cymru/news/mp-cautioned-for-assaulting-his-wife-confirms-he-wont-be-standing-for-re-election/

That's a bit of a surprise as it looked to me, as an observer, that he was in campaign mode. He probably would have only got a couple of thousand votes, but this does make a Labour gain a touch less likely. Though, I do think Labour are still favourites.

It's going to be a real competition!

[batman]

I have to persuade my anti-Starmer friend here to vote Labour now. She will probably only do so if she thinks there is a serious chance of Hart being re-elected.

[iain]

www.carmarthenshire.gov.wales/media/r4ap30sa/noticeofpollandpersonsnominatedandpollinglocations_carmarthen.pdf

8 candidates: Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, Plaid, Reform, Green, Workers, WEP

[LDCaerdydd]

Starmer here today (with Vaughan Gething).

[graham]

Jul 3, 2024 11:21:19 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Starmer here today (with Vaughan Gething).

It suggests things are fairly tight in Carmarthen.

[pembspolitic]

Jul 3, 2024 11:21:19 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Starmer here today (with Vaughan Gething).

Based on his poll ratings, I’d have thought they’d want him to keep some distance.

I think this will be a Plaid Gain. They had a reasonably good election at the 2022 Locals (and much better than any other party) and have a solid base of Councillors and voters across the constituency.

[batman]

Jul 3, 2024 14:05:09 GMT pembspolitic said:

Jul 3, 2024 11:21:19 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Starmer here today (with Vaughan Gething).

Based on his poll ratings, I’d have thought they’d want him to keep some distance.

I think this will be a Plaid Gain. They had a reasonably good election at the 2022 Locals (and much better than any other party) and have a solid base of Councillors and voters across the constituency.

 Nonsense about his poll ratings. He isn’t Rishi Sunak

[johng]

Jul 3, 2024 13:14:26 GMT graham said:

Jul 3, 2024 11:21:19 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Starmer here today (with Vaughan Gething).

It suggests things are fairly tight in Carmarthen.

Things are definitely tight. Will be an interesting night.