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Post by Penddu on Jun 21, 2024 14:21:27 GMT
Just saw some interesting data on Sky News showing the expenditure on local campaigning.
Bangor Aberconwy is Plaid's biggest expenditure - they are clearly pushing hard here...
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 21, 2024 14:28:32 GMT
Just saw some interesting data on Sky News showing the expenditure on local campaigning. Bangor Aberconwy is Plaid's biggest expenditure - they are clearly pushing hard here... They're not. I saw that too and have looked it up online. That story was online advertising only. Story is here: news.sky.com/story/general-election-find-out-which-party-is-spending-the-most-on-online-political-ads-in-your-constituency-13156305And Plaid have spent the grand total of £77.63 (with £63.63 spent between between 8-15 June) on advertising in this seat. It's quite possibly the local party not Plaid HQ. Whilst this should be a natural target for Plaid their attention is elsewhere (Sorry) |
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Post by Penddu on Jun 21, 2024 14:48:07 GMT
Just saw some interesting data on Sky News showing the expenditure on local campaigning. Bangor Aberconwy is Plaid's biggest expenditure - they are clearly pushing hard here... They're not. I saw that too and have looked it up online. That story was online advertising only. Story is here: news.sky.com/story/general-election-find-out-which-party-is-spending-the-most-on-online-political-ads-in-your-constituency-13156305And Plaid have spent the grand total of £77.63 (with £63.63 spent between between 8-15 June) on advertising in this seat. It's quite possibly the local party not Plaid HQ. Whilst this should be a natural target for Plaid their attention is elsewhere (Sorry) Fair comment. |
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Post by froome on Jun 21, 2024 15:29:08 GMT
I spent 2 days in this constituency this week, mostly at the Bangor end. Plaid have a lot of garden boards up in Bangor, across most of the town (and in some surrounding villages), and there were none for anyone else. The people we were staying with in Bangor have had 3 Labour leaflets, so it is perhaps surprising that they don't have any visibility.
I was also briefly in Llanfairfechan, and was quite surprised to see no Plaid posters there, but 4 for Labour and one large one in a derelict shop for the Conservative. However, afterwards I found out that the Labour candidate lives here.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Jun 21, 2024 15:42:26 GMT
For what ought to be a critical marginal, can't say I've seen much electioneering going at my end of the constituency.
I've had couple of leaflets through my door, from Plaid Cymru and Reform, but have received no other literature. I did spot a small Labour poster in a household window in the Gyffin part of Conwy earlier today, so I can add that to the list with the Reform stakeboards in a garden in Llandudno and at the side of the road at Glan Conwy corner roundabout (though I think the latter have been removed, couldn't check properly as I was driving at the time). Curiously, my parents live only 15 minutes walk away from me and they've received leaflets from Labour, Plaid Cymru, Reform, and the Conservatives, along with freeposts from the doomed incumbent*. I've so far seen or heard nothing from the Greens or Lib Dems, or the two incredibly minor parties standing here.
Also, yesterday I encountered mild disappointment when I got knock at my door from a group roaming around the close, only to learn that they were not campaigners but Jehovah's Witnesses; regrettably I missed a trick by not jokingly asking them "So you're not politcal canvassers then?".
*Inasmuch as there can be any incumbents with parliament dissolved...
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 21, 2024 15:52:19 GMT
That all sounds normal: election campaigns are usually fairly low key in this part of the World, which is, I think, partially a reflection of the fact that when they haven't been they've been quite nasty.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774 
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Post by john07 on Jun 21, 2024 15:58:48 GMT
I was also briefly in Llanfairfechan, and was quite surprised to see no Plaid posters there, but 4 for Labour and one large one in a derelict shop for the Conservative. However, afterwards I found out that the Labour candidate lives here. In the empty shop with the Tory poster? |
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Post by froome on Jun 21, 2024 18:59:23 GMT
I was also briefly in Llanfairfechan, and was quite surprised to see no Plaid posters there, but 4 for Labour and one large one in a derelict shop for the Conservative. However, afterwards I found out that the Labour candidate lives here. In the empty shop with the Tory poster?  I hope not, but in the town. |
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Post by Penddu on Jun 23, 2024 1:44:05 GMT
The latest Savanta/ComRes MRP for this seat has Labour on 39%, Plaid 26%, Con 16%. This feels about right.
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Post by prv on Jun 24, 2024 9:54:37 GMT
The latest Savanta/ComRes MRP for this seat has Labour on 39%, Plaid 26%, Con 16%. This feels about right. Having canvassed a lot of people this year, I've found significantly more Tories than Plaid voters despite everything going on nationally. I think people forget how stubbornly Tory parts of Llandudno, Deganwy, and Junction are. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
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Post by Foggy on Jul 1, 2024 18:08:30 GMT
Conversations with some more mature voters in a café today – one opting solidly for Labour, two wavering between Labour and Plaid, one "hold on, when is it? What are we voting on this time?!"
Also another couple who seemed to be Tories, but they're registered in Dwyfor Meirionydd so I think they'll be disappointed with their local result (and probably the national one too) come Friday morning.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 1, 2024 20:07:15 GMT
Conversations with some more mature voters in a café today – one opting solidly for Labour, two wavering between Labour and Plaid, one " hold on, when is it? What are we voting on this time?!" Also another couple who seemed to be Tories, but they're registered in Dwyfor Meirionydd so I think they'll be disappointed with their local result (and probably the national one too) come Friday morning. Do you mean that they were uncertain about whether it’s a general election? |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
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Post by Foggy on Jul 1, 2024 20:12:09 GMT
Conversations with some more mature voters in a café today – one opting solidly for Labour, two wavering between Labour and Plaid, one " hold on, when is it? What are we voting on this time?!" Also another couple who seemed to be Tories, but they're registered in Dwyfor Meirionydd so I think they'll be disappointed with their local result (and probably the national one too) come Friday morning. Do you mean that they were uncertain about whether it’s a general election? Well, that and/or a failure to notice there'd been a campaign going on for the last five and a half weeks at all (which in fairness, is easy to do in some parts of the city). We had PCC elections just two months ago, and those of us who are switched on will know any election outside of May is almost certain to be either a by-election or UK general election, but many ordinary folk don't follow politics as closely as we do on this forum - plus the elderly also might have trouble keeping track of what day it is. |
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Post by pembspolitic on Jul 1, 2024 21:31:47 GMT
The latest Savanta/ComRes MRP for this seat has Labour on 39%, Plaid 26%, Con 16%. This feels about right. Does it feel about right? Plaid are polling really poorly nationally, and outside the only four constituencies they’ve ever won ar GE they have very limited organisational skills and poor campaigning abilities. Wouldn’t it be more plausible for this seat to be won comfortably by labour, tories clear second and Plaid just about pushing Reform to fourth? (From my understanding, Bangor was weaker for Plaid in a GE context than what the rest of Arfon was for that seat). I think Plaid will probably do well in the 4 ‘Fro Gymraeg’ constituencies… but i can’t see them coming second in any other seats, including Bangor Aberconwy? (Except Llanelli possibly) |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on Jul 1, 2024 21:52:29 GMT
The latest Savanta/ComRes MRP for this seat has Labour on 39%, Plaid 26%, Con 16%. This feels about right. Does it feel about right? Plaid are polling really poorly nationally, and outside the only four constituencies they’ve ever won ar GE they have very limited organisational skills and poor campaigning abilities. Wouldn’t it be more plausible for this seat to be won comfortably by labour, tories clear second and Plaid just about pushing Reform to fourth? (From my understanding, Bangor was weaker for Plaid in a GE context than what the rest of Arfon was for that seat). I think Plaid will probably do well in the 4 ‘Fro Gymraeg’ constituencies… but i can’t see them coming second in any other seats, including Bangor Aberconwy? (Except Llanelli possibly)
If the seat existed in 2019, it would have been a Tory-Labour marginal with Plaid far behind.
Though I do think they could beat the Tories to second this time. It really depends how much work they put in. Parts of this seat, including Bangor and many of the council estates around Bangor, are good territory for the party. They should also have good data as this area has a history of being Plaid held, marginally, as Arfon and once as Aberconwy in the Assembly.
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Post by pembspolitic on Jul 1, 2024 22:05:05 GMT
Does it feel about right? Plaid are polling really poorly nationally, and outside the only four constituencies they’ve ever won ar GE they have very limited organisational skills and poor campaigning abilities. Wouldn’t it be more plausible for this seat to be won comfortably by labour, tories clear second and Plaid just about pushing Reform to fourth? (From my understanding, Bangor was weaker for Plaid in a GE context than what the rest of Arfon was for that seat). I think Plaid will probably do well in the 4 ‘Fro Gymraeg’ constituencies… but i can’t see them coming second in any other seats, including Bangor Aberconwy? (Except Llanelli possibly)
If the seat existed in 2019, it would have been a Tory-Labour marginal with Plaid far behind.
Though I do think they could beat the Tories to second this time. It really depends how much work they put in. Parts of this seat, including Bangor and many of the council estates around Bangor, are good territory for the party. They should also have good data as this area has a history of being Plaid held, marginally, as Arfon and once as Aberconwy in the Assembly.
Yes, fair enough. Also, i didn’t appreciate that the new seat includes over 40% of the old Arfon seat (I thought it was much more limited to just the city itself). There just doesn’t seem to be any uptick in the polls for them, and getting much over 20% seems unlikley imo |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 1, 2024 23:07:44 GMT
If the seat existed in 2019, it would have been a Tory-Labour marginal with Plaid far behind.
Though I do think they could beat the Tories to second this time. It really depends how much work they put in. Parts of this seat, including Bangor and many of the council estates around Bangor, are good territory for the party. They should also have good data as this area has a history of being Plaid held, marginally, as Arfon and once as Aberconwy in the Assembly.
Yes, fair enough. Also, i didn’t appreciate that the new seat includes over 40% of the old Arfon seat (I thought it was much more limited to just the city itself). There just doesn’t seem to be any uptick in the polls for them, and getting much over 20% seems unlikley imo Well, over 40% in population terms, at any rate. The main other part of Arfon it got is the Bethesda area which is not exactly the weakest town for Plaid to carry into the new seat. If Catrin Wager only just finishes ahead of the pisspoor Reform candidate then I'll eat a bucket hat. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 1, 2024 23:23:49 GMT
One of the odder things about politics in the area transferred from the abolished Arfon is that there isn't (usually) that much of a geographical split between the stronger areas for both Labour and Plaid.
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Post by pembspolitic on Jul 1, 2024 23:57:16 GMT
One of the odder things about politics in the area transferred from the abolished Arfon is that there isn't (usually) that much of a geographical split between the stronger areas for both Labour and Plaid. Interesting. I had always assumed that Bangor & surrounds would be weaker for Plaid due to it being an University City and in relative terms in comparison to the rest of the seat more anglicised (or rather less welsh speakers). I’ve also spoken to a few people who noted that Bangor in particular swung more heavily towards labour in 2017 GE for example, when labour came within a whisker of taking the seat. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 2, 2024 16:19:06 GMT
Anecdotally to back up the last few posts, a friend of mine was in Bethesda yesterday and claims he saw one Labour sign up compared to about ten for Plaid.
Of course Claire Hughes is still heavily favoured across the seat overall, but I wouldn't completely rule out Plaid topping the poll in the part of the constituency which was previously in Arfon.
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I hope not, but in the town.
