West Dunbartonshire

[stb12]

West Dunbartonshire

[greyfriar]

Whilst an SNP majority of 9,553/21.1% for incumbent Martin Docherty ought in most circumstances to be impregnable, as the beneficiary of seismic swing from Labour to SNP in 2015, he’ll be well aware that when a political bubble bursts gravity can hurtle a party’s candidates to the ground with a thud.

Several factors to consider: Labour’s 2019 candidate under Corbyn was especially weak and indeed promptly defected to George Galloway’s AFU. Labour has since achieved an outright majority on the local council and will be represented by the well regarded provost and lawyer Douglas McAllister. Jackie Baillie has held the not identical Dumbarton constituency in the Scottish Parliament throughout Labour’s tribulations by attracting significant tactical votes, of which here the bulk of historically high 2019 Tory vote of 6,436/14.3% will be in search of a realistic home.

[uthacalthing]

The Home of the UK Nuclear fleet at Faslane near Helensburgh, a company town with an economy wholly dependent on said base.

[greyfriar]

Mar 14, 2024 23:29:05 GMT uthacalthing said:

The Home of the UK Nuclear fleet at Faslane near Helensburgh, a company town with an economy wholly dependent on said base.

Helensburgh and the Rosneath peninsula was part of Dunbartonshire until local authority gerrymandering in 1996 seceded it to Argyll & Bute. It remains within the Dumbarton constituency at Holyrood and thereby delivers copious Tory tactical votes to Jackie Baillie, but does not fall within the West Dunbartonshire constituency at Westminster.

[uthacalthing]

Forgive my talking bollocks in a Jimboo sort of way

[jamie]

Mar 14, 2024 23:13:25 GMT greyfriar said:

Several factors to consider: Labour’s 2019 candidate under Corbyn was especially weak and indeed promptly defected to George Galloway’s AFU. Labour has since achieved an outright majority on the local council and will be represented by the well regarded provost and lawyer Douglas McAllister. Jackie Baillie has held the not identical Dumbarton constituency in the Scottish Parliament throughout Labour’s tribulations by attracting significant tactical votes, of which here the bulk of historically high 2019 Tory vote of 6,436/14.3% will be in search of a realistic home.

Rather luckily, given the SNP won more votes. 

[uthacalthing]

Or skillfully, depending on your thinking as regards STV

[Tony Otim]

Mar 16, 2024 21:01:08 GMT uthacalthing said:

Or skillfully, depending on your thinking as regards STV

Neither lucky nor skillful, but natural under current circumstances that Labour would be considerably more transfer friendly?

[jamie]

Mar 17, 2024 9:55:34 GMT Tony Otim said:

Neither lucky nor skillful, but natural under current circumstances that Labour would be considerably more transfer friendly?

Labour didn’t really need to benefit from transfers to win a majority here. The SNP pilled up their lead in the Clydebank wards which still split 2/2, while Labour won 2/3 in both 3 member wards thanks to a strong first preference vote. 

[greyfriar]

www.west-dunbarton.gov.uk/media/ndjiac11/notice-of-poll-ukpge-v2-3.doc

Eight candidates: SNP, Lab, Con, Lib Dem, Green, Reform, Family & Sovereignty.

[john07]

Mar 16, 2024 21:01:08 GMT uthacalthing said:

Or skillfully, depending on your thinking as regards STV

Exactly. It is impossible to compare first preference votes under STV with votes under FPTP or even votes for a list system of PR.

Votes can choose to opt for a minority party under STV knowing that should their candidate fail to reach the quota, their votes will transfer to the second preference.

[ntyuk1707]

Calling this for Labour.

[riccimarsh]

[greyfriar]

democratonline.net/2024/08/28/the-partys-over-labour-calls-it-a-day-after-provostship-shambles/

Quite the turnaround from the outright majority, although once things simmer down it’s more likely the moderate SNP and Labour members can find common ground in a reluctant confidence and supply arrangement than any coalition involving the independents by defection and Bollan.

[riccimarsh]

Aug 28, 2024 23:00:56 GMT greyfriar said:

democratonline.net/2024/08/28/the-partys-over-labour-calls-it-a-day-after-provostship-shambles/

Quite the turnaround from the outright majority, although once things simmer down it’s more likely the moderate SNP and Labour members can find common ground in a reluctant confidence and supply arrangement than any coalition involving the independents by defection and Bollan.

Thank-you for linking to a much more authoritative source than the random tweet I posted.

[The Bishop]

All very interesting, but not sure of its relevance to last month's *general* election? This is what the archived (but still usable) 2022 threads are for