North Ayrshire and Arran

[stb12]

North Ayrshire and Arran

[yellowfox]

Patricia Gibson, incumbent since 2015, is defending a 8,521 (18%) notional majority for the SNP, both Gibson and her husband Kenneth (the local MSP for most of the area) are seen to be on the socially conservative wing of the SNP, and backed Kate Forbes during the leadership election.

Whilst the seat was gained from Labour in 2015, it is now the Conservatives who are in 2nd place, with Labour some way further back. The tory candidate is Todd Ferguson who is a councillor for the North Coast ward, the labour challenger is Irene Campbell, who has worked across the public sector and is currently a community activist. Similar to some of the other Ayrshire seats, though, it might be that the conservatives are too far behind to take advantage of SNP unpopularity with votes flowing from both larger parties to Labour also not being enough to overtake the nationalists.

[ntyuk1707]

This seat is a lot more working-class than many visitors to the area appreciate. While it has a string of middle-class seaside towns like Skelmorlie, Fairlie and Largs in addition to the scenic isles of Cumbrae and Arran, around two-thirds of constituents live in Ardrossan, Saltcoats, Stevenston, Kilwinning, Dalry, Kilbirnie and Beith, which are predominantly working-class areas.

Ardrossan, Saltcoats and Stevenston are collectively known as the 'poverty triangle of Ayrshire'. These towns broke 55-45 for independence at the 2014 independence referendum, but are now trending towards Labour alongside Kilwinning, whereas the SNP and Conservatives are competitive in more rural towns and villages in the north of the seat and in the isles of Cumbrae and Arran.

Dalry has bizarrely become a Conservative stronghold at a local level despite its fairly working class profile thanks to a popular candidate and history of orange unionism in the area.

[batman]

Dalry in Edinburgh is mostly working-class Protestant too isn't it?

[john07]

Apr 11, 2024 20:42:08 GMT batman said:

Dalry in Edinburgh is mostly working-class Protestant too isn't it?

It’s the slightly posher counterpart to Gorgie. Tenemented area throughout near to Haymarket Station.

Definitely Hearts’ territory.

I don’t know much of Dalry in Ayrshire.

[ntyuk1707]

Apr 11, 2024 21:01:00 GMT john07 said:

Apr 11, 2024 20:42:08 GMT batman said:

Dalry in Edinburgh is mostly working-class Protestant too isn't it?

It’s the slightly posher counterpart to Gorgie. Tenemented area throughout near to Haymarket Station.

Definitely Hearts’ territory.

I don’t know much of Dalry in Ayrshire.

Dalry (Edinburgh) is a pretty strong area for the SNP. I think it voted narrowly in favour of independence.

[carolus]

www.north-ayrshire.gov.uk/Documents/Election-Info/notice-of-poll-uk-general-election.pdf

8 - Con, Green, Lab, LD, SNP, Reform UK, SDP, Socialist Labour

[ntyuk1707]

Surprised how many people think this is going to be an SNP hold.

On current polling, Labour are on course to gain this constituency. The larger towns to the south of the constituency (Kilwinning, Saltcoats, Stevenston and Ardrossan) which had been strongly SNP have trended strongly towards Labour over the last three years.

The SNP are weaker in the remainder in the constituency and an insurgent Labour Party will likely hoover up enough votes from the SNP and Conservatives to win the constituency.

[Kristofer Keane]

I was in this constituency for a long weekend there (a holiday booked before the election was called...) and I did see a group of Labour canvassers getting organised in Brodick on Saturday. No sign of any other activity.

[Deleted]

I wish there was a Yalta agreement between the Tories and Labour in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, but the latter are favoured to win both so it'd be pointless for them.

[batman]

I do not wish such a thing.

[ntyuk1707]

Calling this for Labour.

[No Offence Alan]

My son has cast his postal vote for the LDs here.

[irish observer]

Outside chance of a SNP hold here.