Na h-Eileanan an Iar

[Tony Otim]

I think there will be quite a few lower winning shares in Scotland than here...

[Foggy]

Not much of a stretch to say this should have the lowest number of raw votes for the winner, on the other hand.

[iain]

cne-siar.gov.uk/home/your-council/elections-and-voting/uk-parliamentary-election/statutory-notices-uk-general-election/statement-of-persons-nominated-and-notice-of-poll/

8 candidates: Lab, Con, LD, SNP, Reform, Family, Christian, Ind

[greyfriar]

Should be a relatively interesting contest here for the first time in decades, with the incumbent Angus MacNeil having been ejected by the SNP and standing as an Independent with Alba support.

MacNeil may well have been one of the better placed to withstand the probable Labour surge, so looks like an open door. Be interesting to see the extent of any personal vote, or perhaps pro-indy/ant-SNP vote.

The two main parties have a wee quirk in common: all of the other candidates have been nominated by at least on MacLeod, whereas neither Labour nor SNP has received any. This in a land where it can be tricky to discern between Donald MacLeod and Donald MacDonald MacLeod.

[Deleted]

Tories were up almost 6% here in 2019 - to 22% (they lost their deposit in 2010). Any idea how much of they vote MacNeil can squeeze?

[Sibboleth]

Jun 8, 2024 9:47:03 GMT @weld said:

Tories were up almost 6% here in 2019 - to 22% (they lost their deposit in 2010). Any idea how much of they vote MacNeil can squeeze?

None, given who they are and given what he is.

[Deleted]

The Tory boost in 2019 seems to correlate strongly with the absence for the Scottish Christian Party not standing here. If they're standing, they may suck votes away from the Tories. Do we have any local forum members with insights on this seat?

[Tony Otim]

Nowhere near local, but my guess would be that:

Labour got almost 30% last time - they probably won't need much more than that to win this time, but will probably go up close to 40%, leaving the SNP and MacNeil scrapping for about a third of the vote between them.

The Conservatives, Reform, Family Party and Christian Party (who have the only candidate who's not local) probably divide up 20-25% between them and the Lib Dems flatline around 4-5%.

[right]

He's insufferable, but he's got a point here

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2024 10:46:52 GMT right said:

He's insufferable, but he's got a point here

Yes. The SNP held this seat from 1970 to 1987 and since 2005, so they're in wipe-out territory if they lose it. It was one of two seats they held in 1979. I think this is a four-way marginal, but Labour should edge it because of farce around Yousaf and MacNeil taking more from the SNP. The Tories will fall back a bit. However, their progress since losing their deposit in 2010 to 22% of the vote in just nine years always intrigues me. 

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Na h-Eileanan an Iar is a sui generis constituency where neither the UK-wide political situation nor the state of political discourse in Scotland has much to do with voting patterns. It's under threat because Labour has historical and lasting electoral strength and the nationalist anti-Labour vote is now going to be divided between the SNP candidate and Angus MacNeil. Should the SNP lose it, that would be an indication of their difficulty in the Outer Hebrides but not necessarily anywhere else.

[Deleted]

True, and in 1979 and 1987 it didn't exactly swing with national tide. That Sui genesis aspect might be why MacNeil does quite well here.

[IceAgeComing]

It also didn't swing with the national tide in 2005 - the SNP vote fell nationally in 2005 (down about 2% - Labour fell about 4% so a slight two party swing: the Lib Dems were the beneficiaries to finish second in the popular vote) and yet in Na h-Eileanan an Iar there was a 9.3% swing to the SNP and they gained it comfortably. Labour's vote also held up rather well in 2005 while the party was in free-fall everywhere else in Scotland - its just a unique political environment (as the Christians getting 7% in 2017 perhaps demonstrates).

[irish observer]

Labour regain the Western Isles mainly due to SNP unpopularity but also a split Nationalist vote.

[ntyuk1707]

Calling this for Labour.

[matureleft]

It turned out that the split nationalist vote didn’t matter. Labour nearly managed a majority of votes cast. They must have found a perfect candidate in this quite personal constituency. With an electorate as small as this it’s perfectly possible to have met a very high proportion of electors or be known through another contact.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Oath:

[uthacalthing]

That's easy for him to say