stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:04:49 GMT
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
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Post by yellowfox on Mar 16, 2024 19:31:13 GMT
The SNP have a 2,438 (17%) majority over Labour here but events mean that Labour are all but certain to be regaining this seat after a 19 year nationalist interlude.
Angus MacNeil, who has held this seat since 2005, has been ideologically at odds with the SNP leadership for some time over his fundamentalist views and it seemed that both sides seemed not entirely displeased when their relationship broke down irreparably last summer. MacNeil, from Barra in the south of the archipelago, is running as an independent, backed by Alba.
The SNP have nominated Susan Thomson, current South Uist councillor to nominally defend the seat, though the split nationalist vote means that she surely can't have much hope of winning.
That honour will go to Torcuil Crichton, Labour's candidate, a Stornoway native who was previously political editor for the Daily Record.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Mar 16, 2024 19:54:17 GMT
I’d favour Labour here, but ‘all but certain’ seems a little bit of an overstatement, particularly in such an idiosyncratic constituency.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 16, 2024 19:56:43 GMT
I’d favour Labour here, but ‘all but certain’ seems a little bit of an overstatement, particularly in such an idiosyncratic constituency. It is certainly not outside the realm of possibility that MacNeil has little personal vote in the forthcoming election, or even had a negative one in previous ones. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 16, 2024 20:38:15 GMT
Given his behaviour, I highly doubt many northern Presbyterians would vote for him anyway. It'll be Catholic Barra where any personal vote comes from, and that would naturally limit it you'd have thought.
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YL
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Post by YL on Mar 17, 2024 8:02:20 GMT
I’d favour Labour here, but ‘all but certain’ seems a little bit of an overstatement, particularly in such an idiosyncratic constituency. It is certainly not outside the realm of possibility that MacNeil has little personal vote in the forthcoming election, or even had a negative one in previous ones. I suspect he does have a personal vote on Barra, but the Catholic areas are a rather small proportion of the constituency by electorate. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Mar 23, 2024 20:09:48 GMT
It is certainly not outside the realm of possibility that MacNeil has little personal vote in the forthcoming election, or even had a negative one in previous ones. I suspect he does have a personal vote on Barra, but the Catholic areas are a rather small proportion of the constituency by electorate. I know he's Catholic and Wee Frees are supposed to hate Catholics, but he's been in a seat with a reasonably strong Labour machine (stronger than many if their central belt "safe" seats) in elections before the 2015 SNP tsunami. So I'm not sure about a negative personal vote. |
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Sandy
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Post by Sandy on Mar 24, 2024 13:58:34 GMT
I suspect he does have a personal vote on Barra, but the Catholic areas are a rather small proportion of the constituency by electorate. I know he's Catholic and Wee Frees are supposed to hate Catholics, but he's been in a seat with a reasonably strong Labour machine (stronger than many if their central belt "safe" seats) in elections before the 2015 SNP tsunami. So I'm not sure about a negative personal vote. Wee Free here I like Catholics Just not MacNeil. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 24, 2024 14:09:19 GMT
I suspect he does have a personal vote on Barra, but the Catholic areas are a rather small proportion of the constituency by electorate. I know he's Catholic and Wee Frees are supposed to hate Catholics, but he's been in a seat with a reasonably strong Labour machine (stronger than many if their central belt "safe" seats) in elections before the 2015 SNP tsunami. So I'm not sure about a negative personal vote. I don't think it is a reference to his Catholicism, but one to his divorce and its circumstrances. |
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right
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Post by right on Mar 25, 2024 10:31:22 GMT
I know he's Catholic and Wee Frees are supposed to hate Catholics, but he's been in a seat with a reasonably strong Labour machine (stronger than many if their central belt "safe" seats) in elections before the 2015 SNP tsunami. So I'm not sure about a negative personal vote. I don't think it is a reference to his Catholicism, but one to his divorce and its circumstrances. But he's been through a couple of elections since then hasn't he? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 25, 2024 11:03:52 GMT
During which he has arguably underperformed compared to the SNP more generally.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 25, 2024 17:36:02 GMT
I don't think it is a reference to his Catholicism, but one to his divorce and its circumstrances. But he's been through a couple of elections since then hasn't he? In 2017, he lost 14%, while the SNP lost 13% Scotland-wide. (for Labour +5/+3) In 2019, he gained 4%, while the SNP gained 8% Scotland-wide. (for Labour (-5/-8) |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 25, 2024 18:10:05 GMT
How well will Angus MacNeil fare? Better or worse than Malcolm Macmillan, who polled only 6.8% in February 1974 (he lost the seat in 1970 to the SNP's Donald Stewart, and stood as an Independent in February 1974 having failed to secure renomination)?
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Post by johnloony on Mar 25, 2024 18:35:28 GMT
How well will Angus MacNeil fare? Better or worse than Malcolm Macmillan, who polled only 6.8% in February 1974 (he lost the seat in 1970 to the SNP's Donald Stewart, and stood as an Independent in February 1974 having failed to secure renomination)? Better - more like 21.1% |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Mar 25, 2024 22:18:08 GMT
would tend to agree he will do better as an independent than Malcolm Macmillan. It's striking how poorly the latter did considering that he had been MP for no less than 35 years, although he was still only 60 in February 1974 (he was a student when first elected in 1935).
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batman
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Post by batman on Mar 25, 2024 22:18:29 GMT
would tend to agree he will do better as an independent than Malcolm McMillan. It's striking how poorly the latter did considering that he had been MP for no less than 35 years, although he was still only 60 in February 1974 (he was a student when first elected in 1935).
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Post by uthacalthing on Mar 31, 2024 20:56:35 GMT
Might it be that this constituency is religious in a different way from Glasgow? Not in a hateful sectarian Football way, but in an old-fashioned family-based cultural way that does not involve hating anyone?
Angus Brendan has survived being a Catholic for a long time and the Wee Frees of Stornoway have not seemed to be all that traumatised. This is not Airdrie or Coatbridge.
He is a polarizing figure and he polarised his electorate a long time ago, I can easily believe that some Catholics, some Nats and some who are both despise him but that some notional Wee Frees some devout Wee Frees and some secular agnostics like him. In a tiny constituency, almost everyone over thirty has met him and every family has had dealings with him. All the Councillors most of whom are Indy have a network they will deploy in support or opposition to him
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 4, 2024 11:05:23 GMT
I see there’s a Christian Party candidate, could split the vote even further as they usually get a reasonable vote share when standing here
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 8:40:50 GMT
This seat could be a decent candidate for lowest winning vote share with MacNeil standing as an independent, the Scottish Christian Party and the usual lineup.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 9:09:06 GMT
This seat could be a decent candidate for lowest winning vote share with MacNeil standing as an independent, the Scottish Christian Party and the usual lineup. I would guess the main swings will be SNP -> MacNeil and Labour and Conservative -> Scottish Christian and Labour. Unless MacNeil manages to attract Labour voters then I don't see Labour getting below high-30s - which was low in 2019, but I think will be fairly normal this time.
I think many of the English seats which were approx 50-55% Conservative, 20-25% Lib Dem and 15-20% Labour last time will have very low vote shares, as the Conservative vote share falls, Labour vote share rises, and Lib Dem campaigners fight an uphill battle to present themselves as the main opposition. Especially if the Reform vote share is high and Greens aren't squeezed out entirely.
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