Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey

[stb12]

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey

[greyfriar]

A newly created seat, notionally held by the Tory leader Douglas Ross, who will not be standing again. Will be contested by the (Moray) local Council’s leader Kathleen Robertson for the Conservatives and former leader Graham Leadbitter for the SNP. Both are well known in the larger Moray portion of the seat and are likable enough to have the potential to outperform their respective parties. Arguments can be made for the unpopularity of the Tories at Westminster being more or less of a factor than the unpopularity of the SNP at Holyrood - each suffering from a bad dose of having been exhausted by an excessive term in power. As such probably too close to call and one of a few constituencies which may represent a digging in for one or the other party at what may prove to be their lowest ebb.

[Tony Otim]

The boundary changes certainly work in the SNP's favour here, compared to the old Moray seat - shifting a 500 odd vote Conservative majority into a notional 2900 SNP one. Will that be enough? Probably depends on dynamics of the unpopularity contest come the election and which party attracts a larger vote against...

[uthacalthing]

In Moray, Labour was on 5.0% and Lib Dems lost their deposit. Given two toxic contenders and the likelihood of a Labour GE victory, I would expect Labour to add to their vote, maybe approaching 10%.

[Tony Otim]

Mar 15, 2024 14:25:26 GMT uthacalthing said:

In Moray, Labour was on 5.0% and Lib Dems lost their deposit. Given two toxic contenders and the likelihood of a Labour GE victory, I would expect Labour to add to their vote, maybe approaching 10%.

And similarly the Lib Dems could pick up votes in Nairn & Strathspey. The question is who does that hurt more? I could make arguments either way...

[greyfriar]

John Swinney was out campaigning in Elgin this afternoon. At least he’s personally endured the undualled A9 and A96 in the process, hope he got stuck behind a convoy of trucks doing the mandated 50mph on the former and a few tractors on the latter.

[Deleted]

How many people work in the oil industry here? The other thing about Moray is that it was almost a perfect tie in the EU referendum. A notional SNP lead of around 1,400 - it will be fascinating to watch on election night. Labour could recover a fair bit here, especially in Elgin. They were under 2k votes behind in the old Moray seat in 2001 (at peak Scottish Labour).

[finsobruce]

Jun 2, 2024 8:08:02 GMT @weld said:

How many people work in the oil industry here? The other thing about Moray is that it was almost a perfect tie in the EU referendum. A notional SNP lead of around 1,400 - it will be fascinating to watch on election night. Labour could recover a fair bit here, especially in Elgin. They were under 2k votes behind in the old Moray seat in 2001 (at peak Scottish Labour).

If only there was more than one Elgin.

[carlton43]

Jun 2, 2024 8:11:06 GMT finsobruce said:

Jun 2, 2024 8:08:02 GMT @weld said:

How many people work in the oil industry here? The other thing about Moray is that it was almost a perfect tie in the EU referendum. A notional SNP lead of around 1,400 - it will be fascinating to watch on election night. Labour could recover a fair bit here, especially in Elgin. They were under 2k votes behind in the old Moray seat in 2001 (at peak Scottish Labour).

If only there was more than one Elgin.

Really!  Have you lost your marbles?

Only 24-miles from Dyce! 

According to Keith, anyway!

[batman]

Keith meaning the Leader of the Opposition?

[carlton43]

Jun 2, 2024 8:34:09 GMT batman said:

Keith meaning the Leader of the Opposition?

I Kin what you mean but Lossiemouth out for that.

[ntyuk1707]

This is the best chance of a Conservative gain in the UK from the 2019 election. Probably numbering one of three possible constituency seat gains, the other two being Perth & Kinross-shire and Angus & Perthshire Glens.

[Clark]

Jun 5, 2024 21:29:51 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

This is the best chance of a Conservative gain in the UK from the 2019 election. Probably numbering one of three possible constituency seat gains, the other two being Perth & Kinross-shire and Angus & Perthshire Glens.

...and Aberdeen South.

Gordon & Buchan is notional Tory so wouldn't be a gain as such

[batman]

There are those who think that Labour can pip both the Tories & the SNP in Aberdeen South. I simply don't have the local knowledge to argue for or against that although at some point I will have to make a prediction for the seat as for all of them

[iain]

SOPN: www.moray.gov.uk/moray_standard/page_155483.html

7 - Lab, Con, LD, SNP, Green, Reform, Scottish Family Party

[The Bishop]

Three from Scotland up so far and only one Alba candidate, I do wonder if their final total will be that high.

[irish observer]

SNP hold by 500 or so.

[ntyuk1707]

Calling this for the SNP.

[Deleted]

SNP have indeed won this seat.

[Sandy]

If Ross had stood here instead of arsing around saying he was going to retire he might actually have won. Moray surely went Tory notionally on the old boundaries?