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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:04:11 GMT
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
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Post by greyfriar on Mar 14, 2024 23:24:18 GMT
A newly created seat, notionally held by the Tory leader Douglas Ross, who will not be standing again. Will be contested by the (Moray) local Council’s leader Kathleen Robertson for the Conservatives and former leader Graham Leadbitter for the SNP. Both are well known in the larger Moray portion of the seat and are likable enough to have the potential to outperform their respective parties. Arguments can be made for the unpopularity of the Tories at Westminster being more or less of a factor than the unpopularity of the SNP at Holyrood - each suffering from a bad dose of having been exhausted by an excessive term in power. As such probably too close to call and one of a few constituencies which may represent a digging in for one or the other party at what may prove to be their lowest ebb.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,711
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 15, 2024 12:57:47 GMT
The boundary changes certainly work in the SNP's favour here, compared to the old Moray seat - shifting a 500 odd vote Conservative majority into a notional 2900 SNP one. Will that be enough? Probably depends on dynamics of the unpopularity contest come the election and which party attracts a larger vote against...
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Post by uthacalthing on Mar 15, 2024 14:25:26 GMT
In Moray, Labour was on 5.0% and Lib Dems lost their deposit. Given two toxic contenders and the likelihood of a Labour GE victory, I would expect Labour to add to their vote, maybe approaching 10%.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,711
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 15, 2024 14:33:13 GMT
In Moray, Labour was on 5.0% and Lib Dems lost their deposit. Given two toxic contenders and the likelihood of a Labour GE victory, I would expect Labour to add to their vote, maybe approaching 10%. And similarly the Lib Dems could pick up votes in Nairn & Strathspey. The question is who does that hurt more? I could make arguments either way...
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Post by greyfriar on Jun 1, 2024 17:55:20 GMT
John Swinney was out campaigning in Elgin this afternoon. At least he’s personally endured the undualled A9 and A96 in the process, hope he got stuck behind a convoy of trucks doing the mandated 50mph on the former and a few tractors on the latter.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2024 8:08:02 GMT
How many people work in the oil industry here? The other thing about Moray is that it was almost a perfect tie in the EU referendum. A notional SNP lead of around 1,400 - it will be fascinating to watch on election night. Labour could recover a fair bit here, especially in Elgin. They were under 2k votes behind in the old Moray seat in 2001 (at peak Scottish Labour).
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 2, 2024 8:11:06 GMT
How many people work in the oil industry here? The other thing about Moray is that it was almost a perfect tie in the EU referendum. A notional SNP lead of around 1,400 - it will be fascinating to watch on election night. Labour could recover a fair bit here, especially in Elgin. They were under 2k votes behind in the old Moray seat in 2001 (at peak Scottish Labour). If only there was more than one Elgin.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 2, 2024 8:17:12 GMT
How many people work in the oil industry here? The other thing about Moray is that it was almost a perfect tie in the EU referendum. A notional SNP lead of around 1,400 - it will be fascinating to watch on election night. Labour could recover a fair bit here, especially in Elgin. They were under 2k votes behind in the old Moray seat in 2001 (at peak Scottish Labour). If only there was more than one Elgin.
Really! Have you lost your marbles? Only 24-miles from Dyce! According to Keith, anyway!
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Post by batman on Jun 2, 2024 8:34:09 GMT
Keith meaning the Leader of the Opposition?
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 2, 2024 10:54:22 GMT
Keith meaning the Leader of the Opposition? I Kin what you mean but Lossiemouth out for that.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 5, 2024 21:29:51 GMT
This is the best chance of a Conservative gain in the UK from the 2019 election. Probably numbering one of three possible constituency seat gains, the other two being Perth & Kinross-shire and Angus & Perthshire Glens.
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Post by Clark on Jun 6, 2024 13:12:03 GMT
This is the best chance of a Conservative gain in the UK from the 2019 election. Probably numbering one of three possible constituency seat gains, the other two being Perth & Kinross-shire and Angus & Perthshire Glens. ...and Aberdeen South. Gordon & Buchan is notional Tory so wouldn't be a gain as such
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Post by batman on Jun 6, 2024 15:13:55 GMT
There are those who think that Labour can pip both the Tories & the SNP in Aberdeen South. I simply don't have the local knowledge to argue for or against that although at some point I will have to make a prediction for the seat as for all of them
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,251
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Post by iain on Jun 7, 2024 15:31:56 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,205
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 7, 2024 15:34:11 GMT
Three from Scotland up so far and only one Alba candidate, I do wonder if their final total will be that high.
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Post by irish observer on Jun 26, 2024 17:32:57 GMT
SNP hold by 500 or so.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 26, 2024 21:23:34 GMT
Calling this for the SNP.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 4:25:32 GMT
SNP have indeed won this seat.
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Jul 6, 2024 13:49:48 GMT
If Ross had stood here instead of arsing around saying he was going to retire he might actually have won. Moray surely went Tory notionally on the old boundaries?
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