Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 7:41:45 GMT
ntyuk1707 is the most informed poster about Scottish politics, without equal. he's certainly the one whose analysis of Scottish seats is the most detailed & illuminating. I think that it would be fair to say that boogs, forfarshireconservative, jimbo & some others also are knowledgeable about most if not all Scottish seats, and some English posters do pretty well too. You seem to know some Scottish seats pretty well yourself weld. I only really know the Edinburgh ones well & have only cursory knowledge of some others; in fact I have never been to either Dundee or Aberdeen (though I have been to Stonehaven & other bits of Aberdeenshire), or north of Ross & Cromarty. The only constituency about which I could have written a decent profile for the Almanac is probably Edinburgh South - not because it's currently Labour's strongest seat north of the border, but because I happen to know it better than the others. I would be interested to hear a perspective on why Orkney & Shetland is such a perennial LD stronghold; it's just been a fact of life that they always win it, but I can't pretend to know why they are quite as strong there as they are, and I've yet to visit the islands, sadly. I only know bits and pieces about Aberdeenshire (which I recommend to everyone for a short-haul UK break as it's like North Yorkshire but in Scotland). |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 27, 2024 8:56:15 GMT
NTYUK1707 regularly updates colour coded maps based on the latest polling figures and even goes into detail of colour code shading in terms of 'leans', 'likely', 'safe' etc which is excellent and appreciated analysis. Since election day is now approaching, he is now giving his evidence based predictions in some seats with others to follow. I have learned a lot from his posts and do not want a select few discouraging him to do so, or worst still, leave the forum entirely which would be a real loss. Thanks all for the very kind words, but not to worry I am a lot more thick skinned than this. I just think if you're going to tell someone to fuck off at least have the courage of your convictions to mean it or if not then apologise. Don't pretend you said something else or nothing at all with no apology. I’m not pretending. Everybody knows that I edited what I wrote, because there is a clue in the bottom corner. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 8:57:42 GMT
Why the hell can't this seat be called something like the old council, Bearsden and Milngavie (substitute town names as appropriate). Fuck off with 'Mid' seats.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 27, 2024 9:05:55 GMT
johnloony carlton43 if you want to contribute to these constituency threads which I have made some predictions on by telling me to fuck off then by all means do it, but don't edit or delete those comments and then not apologise. That's just pathetic. Stand by your words or have the decency to admit you took it too far and apologise. I will gladly stand by the fact I don't care if me calling a seat for a party on an online forum has upset you. In fact, might do some more if it's really THAT objectionable. The thing which was annoying many people was the fact that you were cluttering up the whole of the “recent posts” thread with inane predictions about all seats. If every member of the forum wrote “I predict that Party X will win here” in each of the 650 constituency threads, then it would be like wading through a field of treacle just to find anything else interesting. The very fact that I admit that I took it too far is inherent and obvious in the fact that I edited my post and changed the wording, thereby removing the offensive word. It is therefore not necessary for me to write “I admit that I took it too far” because that would be redundant, tautologyous, otiose, repetitive and repetitive. |
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Post by batman on Jun 27, 2024 9:12:51 GMT
But these predictions are not inane. They're based on close scrutiny of each seat. OK fair enough, it's possible to argue that, for example, the outcome in Coatbridge & Bellshill is near-certain (a Labour win), but in this morning's poll the SNP is shown as level with Labour, and I doubt that Labour is taking any seats for granted in Scotland, even if the party is poised to win a majority of them this time. I don't agree that, for the most part, it's cluttering up. I certainly take note of his predictions when making my own, as I can't pretend to understand Scottish constituencies post-SNP hegemony as well as I used to before the SNP took over as Scotland's leading party at the 2015 general election (earlier at Holyrood obviously).
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 27, 2024 9:22:21 GMT
To give my own opinion I don’t have an issue with it, for the reasons batman outlines already that it follows up on detailed analysis rather than a random comments on any seat. It’s Scottish seat specific, Scottish elections have been very volatile for the last while now and it looks like this one will be again. That’s why I’ve put a poll up for near enough every seat in this section |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 27, 2024 9:25:36 GMT
Also, those who like to bet on elections would do well to pay close attention to ntyuk1707 (those of us who did so in 2017 did indeed do very well  ) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 9:32:27 GMT
Also, those who like to bet on elections would do well to pay close attention to ntyuk1707 (those of us who did so in 2017 did indeed do very well ) Indeed. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 27, 2024 15:51:47 GMT
ntyuk1707 is the most informed poster about Scottish politics, without equal. he's certainly the one whose analysis of Scottish seats is the most detailed & illuminating. I think that it would be fair to say that boogs, forfarshireconservative, jimbo & some others also are knowledgeable about most if not all Scottish seats, and some English posters do pretty well too. You seem to know some Scottish seats pretty well yourself weld. I only really know the Edinburgh ones well & have only cursory knowledge of some others; in fact I have never been to either Dundee or Aberdeen (though I have been to Stonehaven & other bits of Aberdeenshire), or north of Ross & Cromarty. The only constituency about which I could have written a decent profile for the Almanac is probably Edinburgh South - not because it's currently Labour's strongest seat north of the border, but because I happen to know it better than the others. I would be interested to hear a perspective on why Orkney & Shetland is such a perennial LD stronghold; it's just been a fact of life that they always win it, but I can't pretend to know why they are quite as strong there as they are, and I've yet to visit the islands, sadly. One can really overplay this. None of those people has spent much time in a majority of those seats and not visited many of them ever. They take an interest in rumour and anecdote, local press and radio, speak to cronies and phone up old contacts. Then they carve out a position as much by volume as by any inherent content, because there is no 'content' to be had is there? These are people making a pretence to knowing the unknowable. My informed guesses from here in Sheffield are probably as good as theirs as I have contacts across the Highlands, friends and family in west Glasgow, central Edinburgh, Kincardineshire and the Borders. Most of them profess to not know much and to report that hard fact is in scant supply. It is to pretend to insider knowledge and special skills, but all this is essentially just that .... pretence, isn't it? A week tomorrow we can test their prognostications. |
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Jun 28, 2024 8:30:29 GMT
My only complaint is the repeated use of the phrase calling this for... which to my ears sounds like a horrible Americanism and misapplied in this context. I note that this post was liked by the obviously American tucson I thought tucson was from The Potteries, judging by his contributions here. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 28, 2024 9:59:39 GMT
I note that this post was liked by the obviously American tucson I thought tucson was from The Potteries, judging by his contributions here. You've never been to Stoke's Mexican quarter? |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 28, 2024 10:03:36 GMT
I thought tucson was from The Potteries, judging by his contributions here. You've never been to Stoke's Mexican quarter? The wetback slip workers from the wrong side of the Rio Grande Del Trento. |
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Jun 28, 2024 10:16:01 GMT
I thought tucson was from The Potteries, judging by his contributions here. You've never been to Stoke's Mexican quarter? I have not, but would dearly like to go.  |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 28, 2024 11:52:50 GMT
You've never been to Stoke's Mexican quarter? I have not, but would dearly like to go. Sounds like this year's holiday is sorted. Now all you've got to do is dig out that old sombrero from the back of the cupboard and it's Stoke here I come! 🤠 |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 1, 2024 12:01:22 GMT
Liberal gain.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jul 1, 2024 12:18:05 GMT
Are they even standing here?...😬 |
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Post by batman on Jul 1, 2024 12:24:04 GMT
I'm going for a Democrat gain |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jul 10, 2024 3:27:18 GMT
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 10, 2024 8:03:37 GMT
Why the hell can't this seat be called something like the old council, Bearsden and Milngavie (substitute town names as appropriate). Fuck off with 'Mid' seats. Since this seat actually contains more of East Dunbartonshire council than the previous East Dunbartonshire seat, they could have gone with "Dunbartonshire East", IMHO. |
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Post by batman on Jul 10, 2024 8:13:25 GMT
or better still East Dunbartonshire.
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