Mid Dunbartonshire

[stb12]

Mid Dunbartonshire

[yellowfox]

Amy Callaghan, who has sat for the to-be-abolished East Dunbartonshire constituency since ousting Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson in 2019, will defend a 1,986 (3%) notional majority for the SNP. That's actually an improvement for the nationalists on the previous boundaries.

The Lib Dems are standing Susan Murray, who has been a councillor in Kirkintilloch since 2017, although the effect of having a less prominent candidate (nationally at any rate) than Swinson is unknown.

Labour finished 4th here last time, but represented the area between 1987 and 2005, their candidate is Lorna Dougall, who previously worked in the higher education sector. The conservatives, who probably don't have much of a chance here this time around given national circumstances, are standing Alix Mathieson, a Milngavie councillor.

[iain]

www.eastdunbarton.gov.uk/residents/council-democracy/elections-and-voting/uk-parliamentary-general-election-2024/notice-poll#Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20and%20Notice%20of%20Poll

7 candidates: Lab, Con, LD, SNP, Reform, Green, Alba

[No Offence Alan]

While others were, apparently, moving imaginary armies of activists around Oxfordshire today, I got a few hours of fresh air and exercise delivering leaflets for the Lib Dems in Bishopbriggs.

[xenon]

Jun 22, 2024 15:14:34 GMT No Offence Alan said:

While others were, apparently, moving imaginary armies of activists around Oxfordshire today, I got a few hours of fresh air and exercise delivering leaflets for the Lib Dems in Bishopbriggs.

From your perspective on the ground do the Lib Dems have cause to be optimistic of a gain?

[No Offence Alan]

Jun 22, 2024 16:38:19 GMT xenon said:

Jun 22, 2024 15:14:34 GMT No Offence Alan said:

While others were, apparently, moving imaginary armies of activists around Oxfordshire today, I got a few hours of fresh air and exercise delivering leaflets for the Lib Dems in Bishopbriggs.

From your perspective on the ground do the Lib Dems have cause to be optimistic of a gain?

Can't say - I don't want to be done for "insider trading"

[xenon]

Fair enough – I was only curious as it's a very hard one to judge from national polling.

[ntyuk1707]

Calling this for the Lib Dems.

[johnloony]

Jun 26, 2024 21:19:46 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Calling this for the Lib Dems.

With all due respect, eat 46 kilograms of gherkins
Otherwise people will think you are as ridiculous as @weld

[batman]

I could not disagree with you more John. ntyuk1707 isn't the only person with good knowledge of Scottish seats on this forum, but his predictions are based on detailed analysis & he doesn't allow his own political preferences to interfere with his analysis & predictions. I absolutely do not agree that these predictions are spamming, trolling, whatever, as hardly any Scottish seat is totally cut & dried, with the possible exceptions of Orkney & Shetland & Edinburgh S. If he started predicting Labour hold Liverpool Walton etc., then it would be a bit different but the command shut the fuck up is unfair & I urge you to withdraw it

[xenon]

Jun 26, 2024 21:24:02 GMT batman said:

I could not disagree with you more John. ntyuk1707 isn't the only person with good knowledge of Scottish seats on this forum, but his predictions are based on detailed analysis & he doesn't allow his own political preferences to interfere with his analysis & predictions. I absolutely do not agree that these predictions are spamming, trolling, whatever, as hardly any Scottish seat is totally cut & dried, with the possible exceptions of Orkney & Shetland & Edinburgh S. If he started predicting Labour hold Liverpool Walton etc., then it would be a bit different but the command shut the fuck up is unfair & I urge you to withdraw it

I wholeheartedly concur with your assessment of ntyuk1707's depth of knowledge, but I wonder if it would be more useful if they posted their predictions as a map on the Scottish electoral projections thread instead of individually in each constituency thread? That way it would make it easier to get a cohesive picture of the country as a whole and avoid John getting annoyed about spamming (which although fairly harmless when restricted to the 57 Scottish seats, does bury others' contributions for anyone wanting to see what threads have been otherwise added to today).

[ntyuk1707]

Jun 26, 2024 21:29:58 GMT xenon said:

Jun 26, 2024 21:24:02 GMT batman said:

I could not disagree with you more John. ntyuk1707 isn't the only person with good knowledge of Scottish seats on this forum, but his predictions are based on detailed analysis & he doesn't allow his own political preferences to interfere with his analysis & predictions. I absolutely do not agree that these predictions are spamming, trolling, whatever, as hardly any Scottish seat is totally cut & dried, with the possible exceptions of Orkney & Shetland & Edinburgh S. If he started predicting Labour hold Liverpool Walton etc., then it would be a bit different but the command shut the fuck up is unfair & I urge you to withdraw it

I wholeheartedly concur with your assessment of ntyuk1707 's depth of knowledge, but I wonder if it would be more useful if they posted their predictions as a map on the Scottish electoral projections thread instead of individually in each constituency thread? That way it would make it easier to get a cohesive picture of the country as a whole and avoid John getting annoyed about spamming (which although fairly harmless when restricted to the 57 Scottish seats, does bury others' contributions for anyone wanting to see what threads have been otherwise added to today).

Once I am confident predicting Aberdeen, Dundee Central and central Scotland, I will absolutely do this. 

At the end of the day, it's an online forum. Sue me. 

[ntyuk1707]

johnloony carlton43 if you want to contribute to these constituency threads which I have made some predictions on by telling me to fuck off then by all means do it, but don't edit or delete those comments and then not apologise. That's just pathetic. Stand by your words or have the decency to admit you took it too far and apologise.

I will gladly stand by the fact I don't care if me calling a seat for a party on an online forum has upset you. In fact, might do some more if it's really THAT objectionable. 

[batman]

To be fair , I did ask him to withdraw the exhortation to STFU and he has done so

[Clark]

NTYUK1707 regularly updates colour coded maps based on the latest polling figures and even goes into detail of colour code shading in terms of 'leans', 'likely', 'safe' etc which is excellent and appreciated analysis. Since election day is now approaching, he is now giving his evidence based predictions in some seats with others to follow. I have learned a lot from his posts and do not want a select few discouraging him to do so, or worst still, leave the forum entirely which would be a real loss.

[ntyuk1707]

Jun 26, 2024 23:06:02 GMT Clark said:

NTYUK1707 regularly updates colour coded maps based on the latest polling figures and even goes into detail of colour code shading in terms of 'leans', 'likely', 'safe' etc which is excellent and appreciated analysis. Since election day is now approaching, he is now giving his evidence based predictions in some seats with others to follow. I have learned a lot from his posts and do not want a select few discouraging him to do so, or worst still, leave the forum entirely which would be a real loss.

Thanks all for the very kind words, but not to worry I am a lot more thick skinned than this. I just think if you're going to tell someone to fuck off at least have the courage of your convictions to mean it or if not then apologise. Don't pretend you said something else or nothing at all with no apology.

[Deleted]

ntyuk1707 is the most informed poster about Scottish politics, without equal.

[Tony Otim]

My only complaint is the repeated use of the phrase calling this for... which to my ears sounds like a horrible Americanism and misapplied in this context.

[batman]

Jun 27, 2024 6:41:32 GMT Tony Otim said:

My only complaint is the repeated use of the phrase calling this for... which to my ears sounds like a horrible Americanism and misapplied in this context.

I note that this post was liked by the obviously American tucson   

[batman]

Jun 27, 2024 1:04:13 GMT @weld said:

ntyuk1707 is the most informed poster about Scottish politics, without equal.

he's certainly the one whose analysis of Scottish seats is the most detailed & illuminating. I think that it would be fair to say that boogs, forfarshireconservative, jimbo & some others also are knowledgeable about most if not all Scottish seats, and some English posters do pretty well too. You seem to know some Scottish seats pretty well yourself weld. I only really know the Edinburgh ones well & have only cursory knowledge of some others; in fact I have never been to either Dundee or Aberdeen (though I have been to Stonehaven & other bits of Aberdeenshire), or north of Ross & Cromarty. The only constituency about which I could have written a decent profile for the Almanac is probably Edinburgh South - not because it's currently Labour's strongest seat north of the border, but because I happen to know it better than the others. I would be interested to hear a perspective on why Orkney & Shetland is such a perennial LD stronghold; it's just been a fact of life that they always win it, but I can't pretend to know why they are quite as strong there as they are, and I've yet to visit the islands, sadly.