Kilmarnock and Loudoun

[stb12]

Kilmarnock and Loudoun

[yellowfox]

Allan Brown will defend a 12,659 (26%) vote majority here for the SNP. In parliament since 2015, Brown has previously been SNP spokesperson on energy and transport but is currently a backbencher.

This is one of the safest SNP seats in the country as the 2nd placed party in 2019 was the Conservatives, despite them last winning Kilmarnock in 1924 (though National Labour did win without a Unionist competitor in 1935). The tories don't appear to have publicly announced a candidate yet, which probably tells you something about how seriously they are contesting here this time.

Labour are 2,500 votes further back than the tories and have selected Kimarnock West councillor Lillian Jones.

[ntyuk1707]

Mar 18, 2024 16:57:48 GMT yellowfox said:

Allan Brown will defend a 12,659 (26%) vote majority here for the SNP. In parliament since 2015, Brown has previously been SNP spokesperson on energy and transport but is currently a backbencher.

This is one of the safest SNP seats in the country as the 2nd placed party in 2019 was the Conservatives, despite them last winning Kilmarnock in 1924 (though National Labour did win without a Unionist competitor in 1935). The tories don't appear to have publicly announced a candidate yet, which probably tells you something about how seriously they are contesting here this time.

Labour are 2,500 votes further back than the tories and have selected Kimarnock West councillor Lillian Jones.

At the last local election, Tory areas in Kilmarnock and surrounding villages trended Labour, with Labour also picking up strength in former mining areas. The SNP vote held up in most ex-council estates in Kilmarnock, but it seems unlikely that this will be enough to stop Labour's advance here.

[Clark]

Apr 11, 2024 12:30:21 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Mar 18, 2024 16:57:48 GMT yellowfox said:

Allan Brown will defend a 12,659 (26%) vote majority here for the SNP. In parliament since 2015, Brown has previously been SNP spokesperson on energy and transport but is currently a backbencher.

This is one of the safest SNP seats in the country as the 2nd placed party in 2019 was the Conservatives, despite them last winning Kilmarnock in 1924 (though National Labour did win without a Unionist competitor in 1935). The tories don't appear to have publicly announced a candidate yet, which probably tells you something about how seriously they are contesting here this time.

Labour are 2,500 votes further back than the tories and have selected Kimarnock West councillor Lillian Jones.

At the last local election, Tory areas in Kilmarnock and surrounding villages trended Labour, with Labour also picking up strength in former mining areas. The SNP vote held up in most ex-council estates in Kilmarnock, but it seems unlikely that this will be enough to stop Labour's advance here.

I noted that Fenwick comfortably voted Tory in 2022 and when I looked in Google maps it appeared to be very working class and wondered if this was another 'Orange village' but then I did note some desirable detached housing in the northern part of the town.

[ntyuk1707]

Apr 15, 2024 14:05:34 GMT Clark said:

Apr 11, 2024 12:30:21 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

At the last local election, Tory areas in Kilmarnock and surrounding villages trended Labour, with Labour also picking up strength in former mining areas. The SNP vote held up in most ex-council estates in Kilmarnock, but it seems unlikely that this will be enough to stop Labour's advance here.

I noted that Fenwick comfortably voted Tory in 2022 and when I looked in Google maps it appeared to be very working class and wondered if this was another 'Orange village' but then I did note some desirable detached housing in the northern part of the town.

Fenwick is certainly affluent and Tory-leaning by Ayrshire standards. That said, the hamlets and steadings east of Fenwick are stronger for the Tories, for example Moscow and Waterside.

'Orange' unionism is mostly only prevalent in some former mining towns and villages such as Cumnock, New Cumnock, Drongan, Patna, Dalmellington, Mossblown and Tarbolton, plus parts of Kilwinning and Dalry in North Ayrshire.

[carolus]

www.east-ayrshire.gov.uk/Resources/PDF/E/elections2024/notice-of-poll-ukpge.pdf

7 - Con, Green, Lab, LD, Reform UK, SNP, Ind

[ntyuk1707]

Calling this for Labour.

[irish observer]

I hope SNP hold this seat and so go for them. Up the Killies!

[ntyuk1707]

Jul 1, 2024 12:33:32 GMT irish observer said:

I hope SNP hold this seat and so go for them. Up the Killies!

Difficult to see the SNP winning in many parts of this constituency outside of some of the villages of the Irvine Valley, Catrine and some of the more deprived council estates in Kilmarnock. 

[batman]

It is true that the SNP had quite a strong profile here even when Labour was still carrying all before it in urban Scotland. But I'm very hopeful of a Labour gain. Scottish Labour distributes its votes more efficiently than does the SNP.

[carolus]

There seems to have been an issue with a small number of postal voting packs being misprinted - newsroom.east-ayrshire.gov.uk/news/update-uk-general-election-postal-votes