Dumfries and Galloway

[stb12]

Dumfries and Galloway

[markgoodair]

Will the SNP make a gain here from tactical voting in order to defeat the Conservatives?

[finsobruce]

May 29, 2024 20:07:17 GMT markgoodair said:

Will the SNP make a gain here from tactical voting in order to defeat the Conservatives?

Not in my humble opinion. The SNP have had their days of wine and roses benefiting from tactical voting to defeat the Tories. The boot is now very much on the other foot.

[stb12]

May 29, 2024 20:07:17 GMT markgoodair said:

Will the SNP make a gain here from tactical voting in order to defeat the Conservatives?

The Labour vote was already reduced to under 10% last time and the Lib Dems are already low so not much tactical voting to be had there. Both the Tories and SNP will likely lose vote share just depends who loses more and if the Labour surge could even be strong enough to be in contention themselves

[Deleted]

One of the few seats in Scotland where the Tories increased their vote share in 2019 - I think they should be OK here.

[ntyuk1707]

SNP don't really stand a chance here - this is more likely to be a Conservative-Labour marginal with the Conservatives currently being the favourites to win.

[uthacalthing]

Of course, Alister Jack is standing down, which may or may not be a factor

[iain]

www.dumgal.gov.uk/media/29498/Notice-of-poll-Dumfries-and-Galloway-County-Constituency/pdf/DGCNotice-of-Poll-UK-Parliamentary_Election.pdf?m=1717785687403

7 candidates: Lab, Con, LD, SNP, Reform, Green, Heritage

[bjornhattan]

This is probably one of the most interesting seats in the country - there will be all sorts of tactical voting going on here and there are three parties who could credibly win.

The most recent local elections don't reveal anything too shocking within the seat. Dumfries (and Dalbeattie) have reasonably strong Labour votes whereas the more rural areas in Galloway are solidly Conservative. The SNP perform reasonably well across both parts of the seat - their strongest wards tending to be in urban Dumfries and their weakest probably being Stranraer (though significant independent votes there make it harder to judge precisely).

Results since 2005 show this is a highly volatile seat. In 2010, Labour's Russell Brown received 46% of the vote - being more local to the Dumfries part of the seat and considering its natural Labour inclinations, he could have been getting up to 60-70% of the vote in the town. Contrast that with 2019, when Labour were reduced to just 9.2% across the seat as a whole and perhaps 15% in Dumfries itself.

Despite this potential for wild swings, I suspect that Labour are probably just a little too far behind to take the constituency this time. They may win the most votes in urban Dumfries* but weakness further west will probably keep the Conservatives and SNP ahead. I would guess a narrow Tory win is most likely purely because I think the urban SNP vote will move more to Labour than the unionist vote - a result along the lines of CON 35% SNP 28% LAB 27% seems quite likely to me.

* As an aside, this situation does make me wonder: how often does a party win the most votes in the biggest town in a constituency, while coming third in the seat as a whole? This could be an interesting trivia question (albeit one where conclusive answers will be difficult to come by).

[graham]

Jun 11, 2024 12:31:31 GMT bjornhattan said:

This is probably one of the most interesting seats in the country - there will be all sorts of tactical voting going on here and there are three parties who could credibly win.

The most recent local elections don't reveal anything too shocking within the seat. Dumfries (and Dalbeattie) have reasonably strong Labour votes whereas the more rural areas in Galloway are solidly Conservative. The SNP perform reasonably well across both parts of the seat - their strongest wards tending to be in urban Dumfries and their weakest probably being Stranraer (though significant independent votes there make it harder to judge precisely).

Results since 2005 show this is a highly volatile seat. In 2010, Labour's Russell Brown received 46% of the vote - being more local to the Dumfries part of the seat and considering its natural Labour inclinations, he could have been getting up to 60-70% of the vote in the town. Contrast that with 2019, when Labour were reduced to just 9.2% across the seat as a whole and perhaps 15% in Dumfries itself.

Despite this potential for wild swings, I suspect that Labour are probably just a little too far behind to take the constituency this time. They may win the most votes in urban Dumfries* but weakness further west will probably keep the Conservatives and SNP ahead. I would guess a narrow Tory win is most likely purely because I think the urban SNP vote will move more to Labour than the unionist vote - a result along the lines of CON 35% SNP 28% LAB 27% seems quite likely to me.

* As an aside, this situation does make me wonder: how often does a party win the most votes in the biggest town in a constituency, while coming third in the seat as a whole? This could be an interesting trivia question (albeit one where conclusive answers will be difficult to come by).

But Labour did poll 25% here in 2015 - in line with its vote share across Scotland. If Labour is polling 35% plus this year, a 35% share should be possible as tactical voting unwinds from both Tories and SNP.

[Sibboleth]

Russell Brown was still the Labour candidate then.

[Sandy]

Jun 11, 2024 13:20:17 GMT graham said:

Jun 11, 2024 12:31:31 GMT bjornhattan said:

This is probably one of the most interesting seats in the country - there will be all sorts of tactical voting going on here and there are three parties who could credibly win.

The most recent local elections don't reveal anything too shocking within the seat. Dumfries (and Dalbeattie) have reasonably strong Labour votes whereas the more rural areas in Galloway are solidly Conservative. The SNP perform reasonably well across both parts of the seat - their strongest wards tending to be in urban Dumfries and their weakest probably being Stranraer (though significant independent votes there make it harder to judge precisely).

Results since 2005 show this is a highly volatile seat. In 2010, Labour's Russell Brown received 46% of the vote - being more local to the Dumfries part of the seat and considering its natural Labour inclinations, he could have been getting up to 60-70% of the vote in the town. Contrast that with 2019, when Labour were reduced to just 9.2% across the seat as a whole and perhaps 15% in Dumfries itself.

Despite this potential for wild swings, I suspect that Labour are probably just a little too far behind to take the constituency this time. They may win the most votes in urban Dumfries* but weakness further west will probably keep the Conservatives and SNP ahead. I would guess a narrow Tory win is most likely purely because I think the urban SNP vote will move more to Labour than the unionist vote - a result along the lines of CON 35% SNP 28% LAB 27% seems quite likely to me.

* As an aside, this situation does make me wonder: how often does a party win the most votes in the biggest town in a constituency, while coming third in the seat as a whole? This could be an interesting trivia question (albeit one where conclusive answers will be difficult to come by).

But Labour did poll 25% here in 2015 - in line with its vote share across Scotland. If Labour is polling 35% plus this year, a 35% share should be possible as tactical voting unwinds from both Tories and SNP.

The Tories have a high floor here, I wouldn’t count on them unwinding too much.

[Deleted]

The Conservatives held up well in 2019, gaining vote share. Dumfries (and especially the north-west of the town) aside, this seat is pretty good for them. Remember that Galloway and Galloway & Upper Nithsdale were Conservative - SNP battles and Labour never got anywhere in the old seat. 

[graham]

Jun 11, 2024 13:35:10 GMT Sandy said:

Jun 11, 2024 13:20:17 GMT graham said:

But Labour did poll 25% here in 2015 - in line with its vote share across Scotland. If Labour is polling 35% plus this year, a 35% share should be possible as tactical voting unwinds from both Tories and SNP.

The Tories have a high floor here, I wouldn’t count on them unwinding too much.

The Tories were down at 30% in 2015.Little rational for former Labour voters to support them this year.

[batman]

It may be that nowadays the SNP are weakest in Stranraer, but I think that when the SNP first won Galloway in October 1974 tactical votes from normal Labour voters in that town would have been crucial to that victory, though no doubt there may be some with better local knowledge than me that might know otherwise.

[The Bishop]

Labour traditionally also had support in Stranraer and small towns in the north of the seat, though that will likely have gone wholesale to the Nats in recent years.

[stb12]

Jun 11, 2024 13:48:38 GMT graham said:

Jun 11, 2024 13:35:10 GMT Sandy said:

The Tories have a high floor here, I wouldn’t count on them unwinding too much.

The Tories were down at 30% in 2015.Little rational for former Labour voters to support them this year.

Things don’t always just revert exactly back to previous years you know

[bjornhattan]

Jun 11, 2024 13:50:20 GMT The Bishop said:

Labour traditionally also had support in Stranraer and small towns in the north of the seat, though that will likely have gone wholesale to the Nats in recent years.

Galloway and Upper Nithsdale certainly had a reasonable Labour vote by the end - 16.3% in 1997 and 20.2% in 2001. However one of the strongest areas for Labour in that seat - the very working class and remote towns and villages of Upper Nithsdale - ended up in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale, and Tweeddale, rather than in this seat. Places like Kirkconnel, Kelloholm, and to a lesser extent Sanquhar are far more like Cumnock in Ayrshire than they are the rest of Dumfries and Galloway.

[graham]

Jun 11, 2024 13:51:48 GMT stb12 said:

Jun 11, 2024 13:48:38 GMT graham said:

The Tories were down at 30% in 2015.Little rational for former Labour voters to support them this year.

Things don’t always just revert exactly back to previous years you know

Indeed - but on the basis of current polling there is good reason to see 2019 as the aberation re- Labour's vote share. It would be surprising were the party not to poll well above the 21% received in 2017 - 30% does not at all appear out of reach as tactical voting unwinds.

[right]

Tories going strong on "it's us or the SNP"

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19397/