stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 1:48:15 GMT
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Apr 11, 2024 22:07:32 GMT
Based on how things stand in the polls, the Conservatives most likely have a marginal lead ahead of Labour and the SNP in Ayr and Carrick (75% of electorate), with Cumnock being solid for Labour (remaining 25% of electorate).
That makes Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Scotland's most likely three-way marginal between the Conservatives, Labour and the SNP. There is a possibility of the SNP sneaking through the middle of Labour and the Conservatives, but current polling would put Labour as the favourites here. Labour come into the contest with a woeful 13.3% vote share from the 2019 general election.
The demographics of the seat favour Conservatives more so than other parts of Scotland, as the seat has an elderly population which is notably more Protestant than the Scotland-wide average. However, the seat has higher rates of social deprivation than other Conservative target seats in Scotland and contains several traditional Labour supporting areas.
I would say it's all to play for, but as stated, Labour are probably the favourites at the moment.
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Post by markgoodair on May 23, 2024 20:28:27 GMT
Corri Wilson will be the Alba party candidate.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on May 23, 2024 20:34:46 GMT
Corri Wilson will be the Alba party candidate. Was the SNP MP from 2015-17 |
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Post by uthacalthing on May 27, 2024 1:34:45 GMT
Somewhere, maybe here, Alba is going to hand a seat to a Unionist.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on May 27, 2024 11:07:02 GMT
Somewhere, maybe here, Alba is going to hand a seat to a Unionist. At the present moment this is shaping up to be a fairly likely gain for Labour. Closer margins are likely to be found in Aberdeen, Dundee, Stirling, Falkirk and Alloa. |
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Post by carolus on Jun 7, 2024 19:36:44 GMT
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 26, 2024 21:18:28 GMT
Calling this for Labour.
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Post by batman on Jun 26, 2024 21:26:26 GMT
quite bold. This isn't as straightforward as e.g. the Glasgow or Paisley seats
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 26, 2024 21:32:42 GMT
quite bold. This isn't as straightforward as e.g. the Glasgow or Paisley seats On the basis of the 2022 local elections Labour are on track to win a similar share of the vote to the SNP in Ayr and Carrick, while romping home with a massive majority in Cumnock. The Conservative vote is likely to hold up relatively well in Ayr and Carrick but collapse to Labour in Cumnock. The Conservatives did very well in the Girvan & South Carrick by-election last year and this points to them at least winning in Ayr West, North Carrick and South Carrick wards. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 26, 2024 21:56:57 GMT
quite bold. This isn't as straightforward as e.g. the Glasgow or Paisley seats On the basis of the 2022 local elections Labour are on track to win a similar share of the vote to the SNP in Ayr and Carrick, while romping home with a massive majority in Cumnock. The Conservative vote is likely to hold up relatively well in Ayr and Carrick but collapse to Labour in Cumnock. The Conservatives did very well in the Girvan & South Carrick by-election last year and this points to them at least winning in Ayr West, North Carrick and South Carrick wards. Just to make a general point, not specific to here, but local government elections are low turnout compared to general elections, so the postal vote (which favours the Tories) will be less important in the General. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 27, 2024 6:28:54 GMT
On the basis of the 2022 local elections Labour are on track to win a similar share of the vote to the SNP in Ayr and Carrick, while romping home with a massive majority in Cumnock. The Conservative vote is likely to hold up relatively well in Ayr and Carrick but collapse to Labour in Cumnock. The Conservatives did very well in the Girvan & South Carrick by-election last year and this points to them at least winning in Ayr West, North Carrick and South Carrick wards. Just to make a general point, not specific to here, but local government elections are low turnout compared to general elections, so the postal vote (which favours the Tories) will be less important in the General. Although the timing of the election for Scotland (first week of school holidays) will possibly mean both that Scottish turnout is relatively lower compared to the rest of the UK and that postal votes are a higher proportion of that (although less Tory inclined). |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 27, 2024 7:35:59 GMT
Just to make a general point, not specific to here, but local government elections are low turnout compared to general elections, so the postal vote (which favours the Tories) will be less important in the General. Although the timing of the election for Scotland (first week of school holidays) will possibly mean both that Scottish turnout is relatively lower compared to the rest of the UK and that postal votes are a higher proportion of that (although less Tory inclined). At least the Scottish football fans will be home! (ducks!) |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 1, 2024 11:43:18 GMT
Labour gain probably helped by Tory vote also.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jul 1, 2024 19:22:36 GMT
Although the timing of the election for Scotland (first week of school holidays) will possibly mean both that Scottish turnout is relatively lower compared to the rest of the UK and that postal votes are a higher proportion of that (although less Tory inclined). At least the Scottish football fans will be home! (ducks!) I wouldn't bank on that. Some still haven’t arrived back from Argentina. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Jul 1, 2024 19:28:59 GMT
At least the Scottish football fans will be home! (ducks!) I wouldn't bank on that. Some still haven’t arrived back from Argentina. Still expecting us to win the World Cup |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jul 1, 2024 19:30:31 GMT
At least the Scottish football fans will be home! (ducks!) I wouldn't bank on that. Some still haven’t arrived back from Argentina. I do not imagine postal voting issues will strongly impact the Conservatives compared to other parties. Elderly voters with late postal votes will have posted their ballot today or will do so tomorrow. The people most impacted by this will be parents travelling abroad with their children for the start of the Scottish school holidays and other people who are now on holiday. This demographic probably does not lean strongly towards any single political party. |
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