Aberdeen North

[stb12]

Aberdeen North

[markgoodair]

Reform have selected Michael Pearce as their PPC.

[markgoodair]

Charlie Abel will be the Alba Party candidate.

[uthacalthing]

My thanks to markgoodair for this series of posts.


Alba are certainly committed to costing the SNP some seats 

[greenhert]

May 27, 2024 1:42:30 GMT uthacalthing said:

My thanks to markgoodair for this series of posts.


Alba are certainly committed to costing the SNP some seats 

How much of a difference will they actually make? In recent elections they have performed rather poorly to say the least!

[The Bishop]

That is completely true, but rather as is the case with Reform this is the big one which they have been gathering their energy for.

[uthacalthing]

As with Reform, it's not what they win that matters. It's what they cause to be lost. They might lose ten deposits and cost the SNP ten seats.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

It's certainly possible. Razor thin margins as in 2017 are not unlikely. Back then we saw Wishart hold on with a majority of 21, Neil Gray with 195, Angela Crawley by 266, Marion Fellows by 318 etc. If we saw that sort of election again even a measly 150-200 votes for Alba in a constituency could swing it.

[batman]

I think we will, but not necessarily in those same constituencies.

[stb12]

May 27, 2024 14:54:41 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

It's certainly possible. Razor thin margins as in 2017 are not unlikely. Back then we saw Wishart hold on with a majority of 21, Neil Gray with 195, Angela Crawley by 266, Marion Fellows by 318 etc. If we saw that sort of election again even a measly 150-200 votes for Alba in a constituency could swing it.

Chris Stephens 60, David Linden 75

On the face of the figures from that election the SNP really could have suffered even more than they did with a bit more tactical voting

[greyfriar]

www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/Notice-of-poll-Aberdeen%20North.pdf

Eight challengers for Kirsty Blackman, with Alba and Green potentially soaking up some nationalist defectors from the SNP.

[right]

Scottish Family Party

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19760/

And TUSC with a different format

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19759/
And Alba

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19762/

[ntyuk1707]

Too close to call, will update nearer the election.

[xenon]

Jun 26, 2024 21:25:29 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Too close to call, will update nearer the election.

I would have thought this is the most certain of any urban seat to be an SNP hold – but I suppose if the SNP do collapse into single digits then they might not have any urban seats at all. Labour have a lot of catching up to do in any case however.

[ntyuk1707]

Jun 26, 2024 21:37:23 GMT xenon said:

Jun 26, 2024 21:25:29 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Too close to call, will update nearer the election.

I would have thought this is the most certain of any urban seat to be an SNP hold – but I suppose if the SNP do collapse into single digits then they might not have any urban seats at all. Labour have a lot of catching up to do in any case however.

A few factors here.

Labour did relatively well in Aberdeen North at the 2017 general election. Yes, boundary changes benefit the SNP here, but Labour performed exceptionally well at last year's council by-election in Dyce/Danestone/Bucksburn. 

With Labour on course to win more votes in Scotland than the SNP, bear in mind the distribution of this vote share gain is likely to be stronger in former Labour constituencies and weaker in rural areas where Labour are not in contention. If Conservative/Lib Dem voters in suburban areas tactically vote Labour here, the party have a strong chance of gaining this seat. 

[xenon]

I would argue an area like Dyce is actually a bit of an outlier due its previous strong SNP support unlike other areas of Aberdeen. We have seen previously strong SNP areas in other parts of Aberdeenshire decline rapidly, although generally in the Tories favour.

The inner city traditional Labour-voting areas like Northfield and so on have been steadfastly SNP since the referendum. I think the biggest unknown is how large the swings back towards Labour are in each of these categories – if the latter suddenly does so then you are right to suggest that Labour's poll lead and voter distribution means that the SNP has a lot to worry about, but we so far have little recent electoral evidence in this part of the world to back that up.

[ntyuk1707]

Jun 26, 2024 21:50:29 GMT xenon said:

I would argue an area like Dyce is actually a bit of an outlier due its previous strong SNP support unlike other areas of Aberdeen. We have seen previously strong SNP areas in other parts of Aberdeenshire decline rapidly, although generally in the Tories favour.

The inner city traditional Labour-voting areas like Northfield and so on have been steadfastly SNP since the referendum. I think the biggest unknown is how large the swings back towards Labour are in each of these categories – if the latter suddenly does so then you are right to suggest that Labour's poll lead and voter distribution means that the SNP has a lot to worry about, but we so far have little recent electoral evidence in this part of the world to back that up.

Labour has recently gained ground in areas like Tillydrone, Hilton, Rosehill and Rosemount in the more 'inner city' section of this constituency. More deprived areas like Northfield and Seton will probably stick with the SNP, but if Labour can gain ground with middle-class former Conservative voters in Bridge of Don, Dyce, Danestone, Raedon and Westhill as that 2023 by-election showed and make in-roads in working-class areas then they could win the seat. Remember this constituency voted around 55% No to independence and unlike Aberdeen South there is a smaller risk of confused tactical voting towards the Conservatives.

[irish observer]

Think Blackman should hold on.

[Clark]

Jun 26, 2024 21:54:49 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Jun 26, 2024 21:50:29 GMT xenon said:

I would argue an area like Dyce is actually a bit of an outlier due its previous strong SNP support unlike other areas of Aberdeen. We have seen previously strong SNP areas in other parts of Aberdeenshire decline rapidly, although generally in the Tories favour.

The inner city traditional Labour-voting areas like Northfield and so on have been steadfastly SNP since the referendum. I think the biggest unknown is how large the swings back towards Labour are in each of these categories – if the latter suddenly does so then you are right to suggest that Labour's poll lead and voter distribution means that the SNP has a lot to worry about, but we so far have little recent electoral evidence in this part of the world to back that up.

Labour has recently gained ground in areas like Tillydrone, Hilton, Rosehill and Rosemount in the more 'inner city' section of this constituency. More deprived areas like Northfield and Seton will probably stick with the SNP, but if Labour can gain ground with middle-class former Conservative voters in Bridge of Don, Dyce, Danestone, Raedon and Westhill as that 2023 by-election showed and make in-roads in working-class areas then they could win the seat. Remember this constituency voted around 55% No to independence and unlike Aberdeen South there is a smaller risk of confused tactical voting towards the Conservatives.

Westhill is in Aberdeenshire West.  You must mean Kingswells which is a suburb between Aberdeen and Westhill and is strong for the Lib Dems at local level at least. The Raeden section (south-west corner of the Midstocket / Rosemount ward) is the main area of Conservative strength in this seat. I see it as a small piece of middle class Aberdeen South which sneaked over the boundary into North.

[ntyuk1707]

Jul 1, 2024 11:53:16 GMT Clark said:

Jun 26, 2024 21:54:49 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Labour has recently gained ground in areas like Tillydrone, Hilton, Rosehill and Rosemount in the more 'inner city' section of this constituency. More deprived areas like Northfield and Seton will probably stick with the SNP, but if Labour can gain ground with middle-class former Conservative voters in Bridge of Don, Dyce, Danestone, Raedon and Westhill as that 2023 by-election showed and make in-roads in working-class areas then they could win the seat. Remember this constituency voted around 55% No to independence and unlike Aberdeen South there is a smaller risk of confused tactical voting towards the Conservatives.

Westhill is in Aberdeenshire West.  You must mean Kingswells which is a suburb between Aberdeen and Westhill and is strong for the Lib Dems at local level at least. The Raeden section (south-west corner of the Midstocket / Rosemount ward) is the main area of Conservative strength in this seat. I see it as a small piece of middle class Aberdeen South which sneaked over the boundary into North.

Kingswells! Thank you for the correction